Sufficient supply of pork, fruits and vegetables after the holiday, stable prices

　　Our reporter Huang Junyi

　　The east wind is warm, the ice and snow melt, and the whole river is filled with the breath of New Year.

What is the price of pork and vegetables nationwide during the Spring Festival holiday?

What's the trend after the holiday?

In this regard, the reporter interviewed industry experts.

　　Pork prices are steady and declining

　　"During the Spring Festival, the prices of live pigs and pork have fallen steadily." On February 22, Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Daily.

　　This year, the price of pigs is very different from the continuous upward price before major holidays.

Since mid-to-late January, the national live pig price and pork price have dropped overall, and the price level has been lower than the same period last year for 4 consecutive weeks.

　　In the first ten days of January, the national pig price basically remained stable, and began to fall in the second half of January.

In the first week of January 2021, the average price of live pigs in the national bazaar was 35.95 yuan/kg, and remained around 36 yuan/kg until the third week.

In fact, as early as the first week of January, the national live pig price began to fall, and the decline was relatively large. By the third week of February, it was 31.78 yuan/kg, down 2.1% month-on-month and 14.8% year-on-year, which was 4 consecutive weeks of low At the same period last year.

The national pork price rose to 54.22 yuan/kg in the third week of January 2021 and then began to fall. In the third week of February, it was 51.08 yuan/kg, down 1.1% month-on-month and 13.6% year-on-year.

However, supported by holiday consumer demand, the price of pork nationwide has fallen less than the price of live pigs.

　　Why do pig prices go down during the holiday season?

Zhu Zengyong believes that the main reason is that the continuous increase in the price of pigs in the early stage has led to the increase in the enthusiasm for slaughter. In addition, the national reserve of frozen pork has put a total of 170,000 tons since January, and 30,000 tons per week in early February. The former also put in reserve meat at provincial and municipal levels to ensure pork consumption demand.

With the increase in the number of live pigs for slaughter, the price of pigs in mid-January became the highest point before the Spring Festival.

The enthusiasm for slaughter in northern regions has increased, while large-scale farms have reduced prices for slaughter.

In January, the number of pigs slaughtered by designated slaughter companies nationwide was 19.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%.

　　Regarding the trend of pig prices after the Spring Festival, Zhu Zengyong said that pork consumption will decrease seasonally after the new year. At the same time, the number of slaughters before the holiday will be higher, and the number of pigs slaughtered after the holiday will decrease sequentially.

With both supply and demand falling, the overall pig price will stabilize and decrease.

Affected by the winter weather factors, the piglet survival rate is low, which will affect the supply of commercial pigs for two to four months.

　　Vegetable prices shifted into the downward range

　　During the Spring Festival, although vegetable prices rose seasonally, the growth rate narrowed significantly.

　　In February (until 21st), the national average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.21 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5.6%, which was 10.1 percentage points lower than the average month-on-month increase in February in the past three years. .

In terms of varieties, the month-on-month prices of 19 varieties increased, 6 varieties fell, and 3 varieties remained unchanged. Among them, only cucumber (32.4%), carob (25.2%) and winter melon (21.6%) had an increase of more than 20%.

From the perspective of weekly prices, the average wholesale vegetable price in the 8th week (February 15-21) was 6.13 yuan per kilogram, down 4.2% month-on-month, showing a rapid seasonal downward trend after the holiday.

　　Regarding the reasons for the fluctuation of vegetable prices in February, Zhang Jing, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that it is mainly due to the holiday effect.

At the beginning of the month, vegetable prices declined slightly. On the one hand, some frozen vegetables recovered better after the cold wave, and the market volume increased; on the other hand, because cauliflower and other varieties that were delayed in the early listing gradually entered the batch listing period, prices began to loosen. Entered into a stable operation stage.

The week approaching the Spring Festival, affected by the active stocking before the holiday and the local Chinese New Year, the demand for vegetables in large and medium-sized cities across the country was strong, and the price of vegetables rebounded slightly.

After the holiday, as the weather further warmed, the national vegetable prices continued to fall, gradually entering the seasonal downward range.

　　Will the vegetable supply in the future be guaranteed?

Zhang Jing said that due to the overall high vegetable prices since 2020, the efficiency of vegetable planting is good, and the production area is relatively enthusiastic about production.

According to the agricultural situation dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in January 2021, the country's vegetable area on the ground reached more than 85 million mu, an increase of more than 1 million mu over the same period last year.

Among them, there are more than 32 million acres of "Southern Vegetables Transported to the North" base, and more than 27 million acres of northern facility vegetables. The overall supply capacity of winter and spring vegetables is steadily increasing.

According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the cold air force affecting my country in February is generally weak. The temperature in most parts of the country is 1℃～4℃ higher than the same period of normal years, which is conducive to the growth of vegetables. After the Spring Festival, the market will be concentrated, and the supply of spring vegetables will be guaranteed.

　　From the perspective of demand, due to the "in-situ Chinese New Year" and the scattered opening of colleges and universities, the consumption recovery driven by the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival this year is less obvious, and the growth of group consumption is slow. It is expected that overall demand will not increase significantly.

"The country's vegetable supply is sufficient. As the temperature picks up in the later period, the price of vegetables will decline slightly seasonally, and the decline of vegetable prices may accelerate significantly after March." Zhang Jing said.

　　Fruit prices rose slightly

　　This Spring Festival, there is no major fluctuation in the price of the preferred fruits for family consumption and gifts from relatives and friends.

As of February 19, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitored the monthly average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits at 6.39 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% and a month-on-month increase of 4.7%.

Among them, Yali, pineapple, and watermelon rose 59.3%, 27.9% and 19.6% year-on-year respectively, and Fuji apple rose 6.3% year-on-year.

However, there were also declines during the Spring Festival. For example, Kyoho grapes and bananas fell by 7.4% and 4.2% respectively.

From a month-on-month comparison, Kyoho grapes, bananas and Fuji apples rose by 9.0%, 7.5% and 5.1%, respectively. The prices of watermelons and pears also rose slightly.

　　"Compared with last year's Spring Festival, the national fruit prices are about 10% higher than the same period last year. The main reason is that the epidemic affected fruit consumption last year and caused prices to fall." said Zhao Junye, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

This year, there is ample time before the holiday, dealers have sufficient stocks, and household stocking is more common, ensuring the supply of fruit during the Spring Festival, and fruit prices are in the normal range.

The month-on-month price increase was driven by consumption during holidays, and the fruit supply was in the seasonal off-season, and the price increase was in line with seasonal laws.

In terms of weekly prices, the average wholesale fruit price in the 7th week (February 14-20) was 6.53 yuan per kilogram, up 2.7% month-on-month, and still showing a slight upward trend after the holiday.

　　From 2016 to 2019, the national orchard planting area increased from 10,917 thousand hectares to 12,277 thousand hectares, and the fruit production increased from 244 million tons to 274 million tons.

In 2020, the overall production of fruits in various regions will be high. The total output is expected to increase year-on-year, and the market will have sufficient supply this spring.

Take Apple, for example. In 2020, the national apple output is expected to be more than 41 million tons. Approximately 11 million tons of apples will be stored in the cold storage in the new season, an increase of 8% year-on-year, which is at a historical high.

　　"The overall pattern in which the supply of the national fruit market is slightly greater than the demand has not changed. It is expected that the price of the fruit will be relatively stable in the later period, with a slight seasonal increase." Zhao Junye said.