China-Singapore Jingwei Client, February 23 (Xue Yufei intern Liu Lu) On the 23rd, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2021.
Data shows that housing prices in first-tier cities have once again led the way. Second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai have all increased by more than 1% month-on-month, ranking among the top three in 70 cities.
According to industry analysis, under the influence of multiple factors such as population influx and school district housing, first-tier cities have become the leader in housing price increases, but with the implementation of control policies, subsequent increases may be controlled.
In addition, although the price increase in second- and third-tier cities is also expanding, the increase is lower than that in first-tier cities, and the price increase in non-hot third- and fourth-tier cities is weak.
First-tier cities lead in second-hand housing growth
Regarding the performance of the sales price of commercial housing in January, Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the real estate market is generally stable. drop.
The sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2021.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
In December 2020, the real estate market in first-tier cities experienced a tail-end phenomenon, with price increases higher than those in second- and third-tier cities.
Judging from the latest statistics, in January, the month-on-month increase in the sales prices of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities increased significantly, and the overall increase was still higher than in second- and third-tier cities.
The sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.6% and 1.3% respectively from the previous month, and the increase was 0.3% and 0.7% respectively from the previous month.
The sales prices of new and second-hand houses in 31 second-tier cities both increased by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales prices of new houses and second-hand houses in 35 third-tier cities increased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively from the previous month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
Among first-tier cities, the sales prices of new homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen increased by 0.5%, 0.6%, 1.0%, and 0.3%, respectively. Second-hand housing prices rose by 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.7%, respectively. Higher than the new house.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client that first-tier cities have become the leader in housing price increases in the first month of 2021, and there has been an overall increase, especially for second-hand housing data, Shenzhen (1.7%), Guangzhou (1.4%), Shanghai The month-on-month growth rate (1.3%) ranked among the top three in the 70 cities, and Beijing (0.9%) ranked eighth in the 70 cities, both of which continued the tail-raising phenomenon at the end of 2020.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, pointed out that there are three main reasons for the hot market in first-tier cities. First, the market demand is still strong. Although Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other cities have introduced relevant policies in 2020, population inflows and The increasing number of qualified housing buyers has led to a concentrated release of demand at a certain stage; second, the increase in the price of second-hand housing is closely related to educational resources. From the perspective of the sectors where housing prices in first-tier cities have risen more, the housing with high-quality educational resources performs particularly well Obvious; third, speculation still exists in the market, which has an impact on future expectations.
The number of rising cities increases, and the eastern and central regions are hotter
Data map: sand table of the sales department.
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
In addition to price increases, the number of cities with rising housing prices is also increasing.
In January, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 53 cities saw a month-on-month increase in the sales price of newly built commercial housing, and 49 cities saw a month-on-month increase in the sales price of second-hand housing. Both are 11 more than in December 2020, and both are higher than 2020. The months of the fourth quarter of the year.
In terms of the order of price increase, Jinhua (1.2%), Guangzhou (1%), Hefei (0.9%), Yangzhou (0.9%), Shenyang (0.8%), Chengdu (0.8%), Lanzhou (0.8%), Quanzhou ( 0.8%), Wuhan (0.7%), Xining (0.7%), the month-on-month increase in the sales price of new homes ranked the top ten in 70 cities; Shenzhen (1.7%), Guangzhou (1.4%), Shanghai (1.3%), Jinhua (1.3%) %), Chengdu (1%), Xi'an (1%), Xuzhou (1%), Beijing (0.9%), Ningbo (0.9%), and Quanzhou (0.9%). Ten places.
It can be seen that a number of eastern and central cities have the highest price increases.
The month-on-month increase in the sales price of new houses in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province ranked first in the 70 cities, and the month-on-month increase in the sales prices of second-hand houses ranked fourth in the 70 cities.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that Jinhua's real estate market was relatively calm in the first two years, and housing prices are likely to rebound when potential demand for housing is released.
Lishui, Quzhou, Taizhou and other places in Zhejiang have all introduced regulatory policies before. Therefore, Jinhua also has the possibility of upgrading regulation.
Chen Xiao, an analyst at the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, said that, driven by favorable policy planning and market demand, cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions have a high market enthusiasm, and prices have risen rapidly.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said that from the perspective of the city's shell second-hand housing market boom index in the first week after the Spring Festival this year, some cities along the Yangtze River, such as Ningbo and Wuxi, are still experiencing greater pressure on housing prices.
Zhang Bo said that compared with the first-tier cities, the expansion trend of price increases in second- and third-tier cities has been significantly reduced, especially in third-tier cities.
In the non-hot-spot third- and fourth-tier cities, the cooling performance at the beginning of the year was obvious, especially in areas where the track was not covered and the supporting facilities were not complete, and the house price rose weakly.
Regulate or increase the growth rate of first-tier cities is expected to stabilize
Data map: A residence in Shenzhen.
Photo by Xue Yufei, Sino-Singapore Jingwei
Zhang Dawei analyzed that from the overall trend, the trend of continued rise in housing prices in the first quarter of this year still exists, but with the introduction of more and more overweight control policies, the market is expected to run smoothly and the price increase will also slow down.
However, first-tier cities may still be the leader in housing price increases in the first quarter.
Yan Yuejin said that the recent upgrade of real estate policy regulation in first-tier cities, especially the obvious tightening of credit policies, objectively makes it possible for the subsequent housing prices of such cities to stabilize.
Chen Xiao said that due to the large increase in housing prices in cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, more cities may follow up and regulate to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Xu Xiaole predicted that under the influence of the intensive regulation in late January and the Spring Festival week, the increase in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in February will narrow, and the price increase momentum will weaken.
He said: "2021 will still be a year of intensified housing prices and the game of regulation and control. Generally speaking, the rate of housing price increase will be narrower than that in 2020." (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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