Chinanews client Beijing, February 23 (Zuo Yukun) "The price increase in 70 cities has expanded from the previous month." On February 23, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the price data of 70 cities in January 2021.

　　Among them, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.6% month-on-month, and the sales price of second-hand housing increased by 1.3% month-on-month, both of which were larger than the previous month.

　　What is the reason for the acceleration of housing prices at the beginning of the year?

Will it continue to rise?

Will there be any new changes in the regulation policy?

Data map: real estate.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

Rising prices of second-hand housing drive first-tier cities to lead the country

　　"The first-tier cities have become the leader in house price increases in the beginning of 2021, and there has been an overall increase." said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property.

　　Behind the expansion of housing prices in 70 cities, the rise in second-hand housing is more prominent than that of new housing.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in January, the sales price of newly-built commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 0.6%, 1.0% and 0.3% respectively.

The sales price of second-hand housing increased by 1.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.7% respectively.

The sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2021.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

　　"The increase in house prices in January is still mainly driven by the increase in the prices of second-hand houses in first-tier cities." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Shanghai ranked top 4 in 70 cities, which is the same as the first-tier cities in January. The apparent warming of the second-hand housing market is highly correlated.

　　According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in January 2021, the actual sales of second-hand houses in the 18 key cities have increased by about 23% from the previous month. Among them, the total sales in the first-tier four cities increased by 29% from the previous month, and the absolute level of transactions was at the highest monthly level since 2019. on.

　　"The rise in second-hand housing prices is closely related to educational resources. From the perspective of the sectors where housing prices in first-tier cities have risen more frequently, housing with high-quality educational resources is particularly evident." Analysis by Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute.

　　Zhang Dawei also believes that under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for housing in school districts in first-tier cities has increased significantly, which is the core reason for the rise in second-hand housing prices.

"Including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing, the housing performance of the school district at the end of this round was the most obvious. A large number of people studying abroad returned, increasing market demand."

Why is it still rising under the overweight regulation?

　　"There are still speculators in the market. Both real estate speculators are frequently appearing in some cities, and some real estate practitioners and some unscrupulous self-media speculations have affected the reasonable expectations of the market." Zhang Bo believes that the increase in housing prices is also It mirrors the chaos in the property market in various places.

　　Since December last year, phenomena such as the "new craze", "10,000 people shaking", and "price jumps in second-hand housing" have appeared in turn, causing the property market to become "hot".

In this regard, Xu Xiaole said, “The early market warming has accelerated the pace of buyers entering the market, the contradiction between market supply and demand has intensified, and the price increase has expanded.”

　　According to data from the Shell Research Institute, in January, the rapid turnover rate of customers in 18 cities increased by 4 percentage points from the previous month, which was at the highest monthly level since 2019.

　　Based on this, since the beginning of the year, many cities have intensively issued new property market control policies to "patch" issues such as housing qualifications and funding.

Among them, the intensive regulation of first-tier cities represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen is particularly prominent.

　　Statistics from Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that overall, in mid-to-early February, there were more than 28 real estate adjustments in various regions, and a total of 42 real estate adjustment policies were issued in January. In 2021, the total number of real estate adjustments in various regions has reached 70 times.

The sales price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2021.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

　　Under the regulation, the month-on-month increase in house prices is still expanding. Is this normal?

　　"Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing are all experiencing market rebounds after regulation and control, and prices have risen at a rapid rate." In Zhang Dawei's view, the acceleration in growth is due to the market rebound.

　　"The first-tier cities have the largest increase." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed, "In January, the housing purchase policies in some big cities were tightened, especially when there were more voices of tightening credit or a wave of panic transactions. This As a result, the month-on-month increase in some housing prices has expanded."

Is there room for more policy?

Can the price increase come back?

　　"Of course, the recent upgrade of real estate policy regulation in first-tier cities objectively makes it possible for the subsequent housing prices in such cities to stabilize. Especially the recent tightening of credit policies in some first-tier cities will affect subsequent market transactions and housing price trends. Look, the trend of housing prices in 2021 will be greatly affected by credit policies.” Yan Yuejin said.

　　Zhang Dawei also believes that the core reason for this round of the property market from 2020 to Xiaoyangchun in 2021 is credit policy, especially related to operating loans into the property market.

"In 2020, the credit growth will set a new historical record. Corporate loans and personal mortgage loans in some cities are relatively loose, which will also stimulate demand in first-tier cities."

　　"At present, although local policies are increasing, it is difficult to increase supply in the short term. Credit policies are gradually tightening. It is expected that the trend of rising housing prices in first-tier cities will continue." In Zhang Dawei's view, Xiaoyangchun has already appeared in 2021.

　　But in terms of growth rate, Xu Xiaole believes that the growth rate of commercial residential sales prices is expected to narrow in February.

Under the influence of the intensive regulation in late January and the influence of the Spring Festival week, the market cooled in February and the price increase momentum weakened.

From a longer-term perspective, 2021 will still be a year of intensified housing price increases and the game of regulation and control. Generally speaking, housing price growth will be narrower than in 2020.

Data map: Property consultants explain to the inspectors.

Photo by Zhu Xiaoying

　　As for the current hot second-hand housing market, Yan Yuejin believes that the follow-up reference price system for second-hand housing is bound to advance, especially the need to actively disclose it with the public to truly guide the pricing and supervision of second-hand housing.

"Looking at the recent changes in the second-hand housing loan market in some cities, it has been tightened. Next, second-hand housing is easier to cool down than first-hand housing."

　　According to data from the Shell Research Institute, since February, the second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in the first-tier cities has flattened or declined at a high level, and the owners' quotes have changed from rising to falling.

　　Zhang Bo said, “Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have frequently introduced policies in the first quarter, and the signals of plugging loopholes, controlling finance, and promoting hype are very obvious. Although the severity of the previous regulatory policies in first-tier cities is considered to be the highest level in the country, it does not mean There is no room for further tightening, which does not mean that the investment hype atmosphere will be allowed to increase."

　　"After the release of the housing price data in January, more cities may release upgraded control policies." Zhang Dawei predicts that the trend of rising housing prices in the first quarter of 2021 will continue, but the tightening policy is expected to stabilize the market and housing price increases. Will continue to slow down.

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