In order to prevent and control the epidemic, this year's Spring Festival "non-necessary do not return home", "Chinese New Year on the spot" has become a new initiative.
Will Chinese New Year in situ trigger an in-situ economic restart?
Just after the Spring Festival, how many companies have started construction ahead of schedule?
What is the impact of in-situ Chinese New Year, and what about the labor shortage after the holiday?
"News 1+1" on the evening of the 22nd connected with Wang Guocheng, head of the Office of Return to Work in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province; Huang Qunhui, director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and shared concern: Chinese New Year on the spot = economic restart on the spot?
94% of e-commerce companies in Yiwu have opened their doors
Wang Guocheng, head of the special office for resuming work and returning to work in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province:
As of 17:00 on the 22nd, the
operating rate of
industrial enterprises above
designated
size in Yiwu City
has reached 65%, and
the electricity consumption
that
day reaches 68% of the average daily electricity consumption in 2020 .
It is expected that on the Lantern Festival,
more than 90% of industrial enterprises above designated size will be able to start construction.
The market recovered three days in advance, and it has all normalized.
The express volume reached 730 million pieces in January,
ranking first
in
major cities across the country,
an increase of 182% year-on-year.
As of the 22nd, 94% of e-commerce companies have opened their doors. As e-commerce companies opened their doors, the express delivery volume has increased significantly. Yesterday’s express delivery volume has reached 33 million pieces, while it was 20 million pieces in 7 days during the Spring Festival. obvious.
Even compared with 2019, this amount is more than 60%.
There are currently more than 1.3 million people in Yiwu every day.
Start work as soon as possible
"12 months of this year, 13 months of work"
Wang Guocheng, head of the Office of Returning to Work and Special Class in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province:
Let me do some calculations. Outsiders stay in Yiwu for the New Year. We have invested nearly 200 million yuan in funds, but it has also brought a lot of gains.
①First of all, we have one more month to develop. This year, 12 months, we have completed 13 months.
Before this time, we may be recruiting workers, or on vacation, but this year we have already started.
② stimulate consumption.
On the first day of the first lunar month, 98,000 people went to the movies. It can be said that a ticket is hard to find. Both the number of viewers and the box office are higher than previous years, ranking first in the province, which is unprecedented.
③In terms of industrial output value in particular, during the Spring Festival, there were 20 regulated industries that did not stop work. At present, 950 companies have resumed production. It is estimated that the industrial output value in the first quarter can reach 17 billion yuan, an increase of more than 40% over 2019.
④Due to the large number of people staying in Yiwu, the orders of traditional manufacturing, seamless underwear, and cosmetics companies have been scheduled to June.
This effect is obvious, and the positive pull on GDP must be relatively large.
On-site services and guarantees for Chinese New Year can form a normalized mechanism
Wang Guocheng, head of the special office for returning to work and returning to work in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province: After
everyone stays in Yiwu this year for the New Year, Yiwu has done a very good job in ensuring everyone’s daily life. Six small industries can be opened. Scenic spots and parking lots also have some free measures. , And children’s winter camps, etc. These services and guarantees can form a normalized mechanism, making everyone feel that staying in Yiwu for the Spring Festival may be better than returning home for the Spring Festival.
When resuming work after the holiday, many places have adopted red envelopes and special trains to motivate employees and continue to recruit workers. The sincerity of the employers also reflects the “problem of lack of labor” after the Spring Festival for many years.
Although this year's Spring Festival "Chinese New Year on the spot" policy has left many non-local employees, labor shortages still persist.
What role can "Chinese New Year in situ" play in promoting the sustained recovery of my country's economy?
Resuming work as soon as possible during the Chinese New Year will help promote rapid economic development and growth
Huang Qunhui, director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
Because the New Year in situ has changed the way of returning home for the New Year, it has reduced labor for labor-intensive industries, especially manufacturing, including some areas where migrant workers are relatively concentrated. Migration costs have shortened the time to resume work and production.
Therefore, the economic restart of these regions and industries as a whole will indeed be faster.
The first quarter of this year is definitely high growth.
In-situ Chinese New Year and in-situ resumption of work and production will promote rapid economic development, rapid growth, and reduce migration costs, so the overall economic growth should be a state of "good start".
New Year in situ:
less population migration and increased logistics
Huang Qunhui, Director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
Regarding the local Chinese New Year, from a macro perspective, it is a pioneering effort to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. On the whole, this pioneering effort not only guarantees epidemic prevention and control, At the same time, it also ensures the normal operation of the social and economic order and the development of the social economy.
On the other hand, even if the New Year in situ has many positive effects on the economy, due to regional differences and industry differences, there will be some opposite effects, mainly population migration and labor migration, which may be a loss to transportation. , But there are also some alternatives. For example, although the population migration is less, the corresponding logistics is not affected, because a large number of two-way new year goods will increase instead.
In labor-intensive cities, the local Chinese New Year population is more concentrated and the economy recovers quickly; but for rural areas, because the population is less concentrated, it will not have a big impact on long-term economic development, but it may have a certain impact on short-term consumption. .
The choice of "Chinese New Year in situ" is handed over to the market: "employees leave company compensation to form a reasonable contract"
Huang Qunhui, director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Chinese
New Year on the spot is first of all a policy formulated for the needs of epidemic prevention and control and overall economic and social development.
If there is no epidemic problem next year, there is no need to discuss this matter.
From another perspective, if you consider that the in-situ Chinese New Year is conducive to the resumption of work and production, some local labor-intensive industries are more distributed. Considering that it has some positive effects on local economic growth, some local governments may wish to adopt in-situ Chinese New Year. policy.
But from a certain point of view, celebrating the New Year in situ, in the traditional concept of the Chinese nation, actually sacrifices everyone’s expectation and mood of reunion. So I think if it’s not for the prevention and control of the epidemic, the government is at best an advocacy. Not a requirement.
However, there can be some reasonable contracts between the company and employees. For example, if employees choose to stay, the company can provide corresponding compensation. At the same time, the company also realizes the need for rapid resumption of work and production or rapid development. It is also possible to form a certain reasonable contract .