Two days after the holiday, a net return of 340 billion central bank supervising media: should not pay too much attention to the amount of operations

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, February 19, the central bank's website announced on the 19th to carry out a 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation through interest rate bidding.

Because 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on that day, a net return of 80 billion yuan was realized on that day.

　　The central bank's announcement shows that cash is gradually returned to circulation after the Spring Festival. On February 19, 2021, the People's Bank of China launched a 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation through an interest rate bidding method to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system.

The period is 7 days, and the winning interest rate is 2.20%.

　　WIND screenshot

　　WIND data shows that from the Spring Festival to this week (February 11 to February 20), the central bank’s open market has 380 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, of which 280 billion yuan will expire on February 18 and February 19 respectively. (Including 180 billion yuan due during the Spring Festival holiday), 100 billion yuan.

In addition, 200 billion yuan of MLF will expire on February 17, due to the Spring Festival holiday being postponed to February 18.

On the 18th, the central bank launched a 200 billion yuan mid-term loan facility (MLF) operation (including the renewal of today’s MLF maturity) and a 20 billion reverse repurchase operation, plus a 20 billion reverse repurchase operation on the 19th. After the Spring Festival A total of 340 billion yuan of net funds returned from circulation.

　　Everbright fixed income said, do not rely too much on quantitative indicators such as open market (OMO) operations and net input to judge monetary policy, because this will lead to partial errors, and even often get results contrary to the facts .

Compared with this, it is more recommended to pay attention to the price signals transmitted by OMO.

There was no change in the OMO interest rate on the 18th, and the weighted average interest rate of DR007 was running smoothly, which reflects the attitude of stable monetary policy and neither left nor right.

　　CITIC Securities believes that the central bank will continue the MLF by the same amount, releasing a neutral signal.

After adjustments since the beginning of this year, the relatively loose monetary policy in December last year has gradually returned to neutrality. The current adjustment may have been basically in place. Following the renewal of the MLF in January, the central bank renewed the MLF on the 18th. The tight adjustment in the previous period returns to neutral.

First of all, from the beginning of the year to mid-January, the weighted average interest rate of DR007 was below 2%. After adjustment in mid-to-late January, DR007 returned to around 2.20%.

Secondly, from August to the end of last year, in order to alleviate the pressure of bank liabilities, MLF operations have always maintained excess continuation. In January this year, the continuation of MLF was slightly reduced to maintain a moderate total. This continuation of the same amount of MLF reflects the "stable" monetary policy. Take the lead, be steady and neutral.

Finally, the tax payment day of this month is February 23. The short-term centralized payment is not under pressure, and it is expected that it will not have a major impact on the market.

　　The “Financial Times” article forwarded by the central bank’s WeChat

on February 18 emphasized that the

focus should be on the central bank’s open market operating interest rate, MLF interest rate and other policies. Interest rate indicators and the operation of market benchmark interest rates over a period of time.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)