This year's employment demand may exceed 2019, and these industries are more favored by hit workers!

　　Due to the proper control of the epidemic, the recovery of domestic consumption, the increase of overseas orders, and the gradual rise of employers’ recruitment behavior, there will be a relatively rapid rebound in enterprise employment demand in 2020.

　　Before the Spring Festival, the new crown pneumonia epidemic had repeated, but this did not affect the overall situation of the start of the enterprise.

In the first working day after the Spring Festival holiday on the seventh day of the first lunar month, most parts of the country have started to work as usual.

　　In the unusual year of 2020, the employment demand of Chinese enterprises gradually rebounded from the "frozen" historical lows in February and March, and has returned to the level of the same period in 2019 in the fourth quarter.

　　Can the "V" shaped rebound of employment continue in 2021?

Judging from the industry’s prediction of the employment situation this year, it is generally believed that it will be better than the same period last year.

　　A recent 2021 employment forecast released by 51job.com shows that due to the low base in the first half of 2020, the number of job postings in the first half of 2021 and the number of employers demanding useful people will increase significantly. It is optimistic that the demand for employment in 2021 is expected More than 2019.

The China Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China predicts that due to seasonal factors, the employment prosperity index in the first quarter of 2021 will be lower than the fourth quarter of 2020, but due to cyclical factors, it may be slightly higher than the same period last year.

　　Yao Kai, director of the Global Science and Innovation Talent Development Research Center of Fudan University, told CBN that as the overall job market is picking up, we must pay attention to the differentiation in the job market.

For example, the employment competition in first-tier cities is more intense, while the employment boom in second and third-tier cities is relatively high; state-owned enterprises, etc., have a relatively strong tendency to return to employment due to their relatively guarantee, while private enterprises and small and micro enterprises have relatively reduced employment attractiveness.

Which industries are rebounding rapidly in the epidemic

　　A year ago, in the face of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, my country adopted a series of measures such as closing the city in Wuhan, extending holidays, closing commercial places, and restricting the movement of people. This has made the practice in the job market for decades-"pre-holiday The "resignation peak" and "post-holiday recruitment peak" did not appear in 2020.

Since then, due to the proper control of the epidemic, the recovery of domestic consumption, the increase of overseas orders, and the gradual rise of employers’ recruitment behavior, there will be a relatively rapid rebound in enterprise employment demand in 2020.

　　The big data of online recruitment shows that on 51job.com, the number of job postings in February 2020 was less than 60% of the same period in 2019, but by the third quarter, employers’ demand for employment reached more than 90% of 2019.

The number of job postings in 2020 reached the highest position in September; in November and December, the number of jobs posted by employers on 51job.com achieved positive growth, increasing by 2.7% and 7.9% respectively over the same period of the previous year, even reaching the 2018 Level.

　　The China Employment Market’s Prosperity Index Report for the fourth quarter of 2020 released by the China Employment Research Institute based on Zhaolian recruitment data also shows that China’s employment market prosperity index for the fourth quarter of 2020 was 1.95, which was higher than 1.43 in the first quarter of that year and 1.35 in the second quarter. Compared with 1.89 in the third quarter, the job market continued to pick up.

　　It is worth mentioning that the blue-collar employment prosperity index based on 58 intra-city data rose sharply in the second half of 2020, reaching a record high of 3.89, far exceeding the level of the same period in 2019.

　　Zeng Xiangquan, director of the China Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with China Business News that the rise of the blue-collar index is related to my country's economic situation, especially to the growth of the manufacturing industry driven by foreign trade.

　　The comprehensive statistical monitoring and survey data of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security also show that the employment situation in 2020 is improving quarter by quarter, generally stable and better than expected.

11.86 million new jobs were created in urban areas throughout the year, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate gradually dropped from the historical high of 6.2% in February of that year, and fell to 5.2% in December, which was the same as in the same period in 2019; the scale of migrant workers' migration basically returned to the same period last year. ; The number of poverty-stricken laborers nationwide is 32.43 million, exceeding the previous year's level.

　　51job divides online jobs into 61 major industry sectors.

In the second half of 2020, the recruitment volume of all industries exceeded the first half, and the recruitment volume of 11 industries exceeded the level of the second half of 2019.

Among the top 20 industries with the largest recruitment volume, real estate surpassed the Internet/e-commerce industry for the first time in three years, occupying the first place.

　　The number of job postings in the real estate industry in the second half of 2020 increased by 15.6% compared to the same period in 2019, and increased by 28.7% compared to the first half of 2020.

The demand for employment in real estate-related construction/engineering and machinery/equipment/heavy industry industries all showed a large increase in the second half of 2020, increasing by 10.6% and 15.8% respectively over the same period of the previous year.

　　Among the 20 industries with the largest recruitment volume, the demand for employment in the medical equipment/device industry has grown the most. The second half of 2020 has increased by 16.3% over the same period in 2019, and has increased by 24.8% over the first half of 2020.

The surge in overseas orders has greatly promoted the recruitment of talents in this industry. In the second half of 2020, the recruitment volume of the pharmaceutical/bioengineering industry increased by 8.3% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month.

　　In addition, the competition for talents in the semiconductor industry is very fierce. In the second half of 2020, the demand for chip talents will increase by 14.9% compared with a year ago. This has led to the semiconductor industry becoming the industry with the largest salary increase in 2020.

　　51job.com predicts that in 2021, real estate and construction/engineering support for employment is likely to continue; industries such as health care, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, professional services, testing and certification will see greater employment growth; software development, semiconductors and education Training, etc. will face more mergers and acquisitions.

Private enterprise recruitment is still cautious

　　Private enterprises have always been the main force of employment in our country. The increase or decrease in employment demand and recruitment direction of private enterprises can be regarded as the vane of the macroeconomic prosperity and the warm and cold job market.

　　Although private enterprises have received certain tests in the epidemic, in terms of worry-free future, the number of recruitment positions provided by private enterprises in 2020 will still account for 72.5%, slightly higher than the level of 2019; the employment demand of foreign-funded/joint ventures is in 2018~2020 will continue to decline.

　　Feng Lijuan, chief human resources expert at 51job.com, said that due to personal mobility restrictions, past overseas consumption has been transferred to the domestic market, especially the normalization of the epidemic, which has prompted companies to accelerate the shift of offline business to online.

The agility of private enterprises far exceeds that of multinational companies and state-owned enterprises. Coupled with the increase in overseas orders and other factors, private enterprises have maintained a high demand for talent recruitment, especially in the second half of 2020, the number of talent recruitment has exceeded 2019 The same period of the year.

　　At the beginning of February, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security jointly commended 92 private enterprises that have made outstanding achievements in national employment and social security in 2020.

　　Zhang Wenzhong, chairman of Wumart Technology Group Co., Ltd., stated at the meeting that Wumart took the initiative to reduce rents for small and medium-sized businesses during the epidemic, and adopted the "shared staff" model to arrange more than 1,100 employees from more than ten catering companies to work at Wumart temporarily. And pay wages in full to ensure safety.

At the same time, digital transformation has also brought new jobs. Beijing Wumart has more than 5,500 pickers and more than 2,000 delivery brothers working hard every day, and fresh food processing plants provide more than 530 jobs.

　　However, due to the repeated epidemics and the volatile market trends, private enterprises with relatively poor ability to resist risks still maintain a cautious attitude in talent recruitment.

Whether the tax cuts and fees and various subsidies granted by the state in 2020 will continue in 2021 will also have a greater impact on the recruitment behavior of private enterprises in 2021.

　　The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has clarified the social security support policy for 2021.

The phased reduction and exemption of social insurance premiums is a temporary support policy, which expired at the end of last year, and the three social insurance premiums have resumed normal collection as required from January 1 this year.

At the same time, considering that the risk of the epidemic still exists, some companies may be under greater pressure. After the policy of phased reduction of unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance rates expires at the end of April this year, it will be extended for another year to April 30, 2022.

　　Yao Kai said that due to the impact of the epidemic, the relative weakness of the consumer market will lead to a reduction in the supply of jobs in the consumer industry, especially direct contact jobs. Jobs such as non-contact consumption, online office, home economy, and gig economy are in Relatively increase.

　　In addition, the epidemic has made "flexible employment" a buzzword.

Affected by the uncertainty of the epidemic, many companies tend to maintain or reduce the size of their employees and transfer costs and risks.

However, various problems that arise in "flexible employment" should also be paid attention to.

　　Feng Lijuan believes that the generalization of flexible employment may squeeze a large number of formal employment positions. While reducing costs, the difficulty of enterprise management has not decreased.

When earnings growth is not good, "flexible employment" is bound to be unstoppable. The legal characterization of this employment method and the payment of social security regulations must be put on the agenda.

　　Author: Guo Jinhui