Iranian nuclear power plant: "For Rohani, taking the first step would be a kind of political suicide"
Hassan Rouhani AP
Text by: Murielle Paradon Follow
4 min
The rescue of the agreement surrounding Tehran's nuclear program should be discussed on Friday, February 19 at the Munich Security Conference.
After the Trump era and the United States' exit from the agreement in 2018, Joe Biden promised to resume dialogue with Iran.
It remains to define the modalities.
Interview with Vincent Eiffling, Iran specialist at the Center for the Study of Crises and International Conflicts, in Louvain.
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RFI: In what context are these diplomatic efforts taking place?
Vincent Eiffling:
We are in a context where Washington and Tehran are
passing the buck
.
In Tehran, we are demanding the return of the United States to the nuclear agreement and the lifting of the sanctions that had been taken by the Trump administration.
While in Washington, but also in Europe, we demand that Tehran get back in tune with its obligations with regard to the commitments made in the nuclear agreement.
► To read also: Intense diplomatic activity to try to save the Iranian nuclear deal
Indeed, for more than a year, Iran has suspended some of its commitments and resumed certain nuclear activities which were normally prohibited under the agreement which had been signed in 2015. The country justifies this resumption by sanctions. Americans and the lack of support from Europeans.
We are therefore in a context where no one wants to take the first step and requires the other to do so.
Doesn't the Iranian regime have an interest in taking the first step, given its isolation and the country's catastrophic economic situation?
If we stick to the economic criteria alone, the answer is yes.
Now, we must also take into account the state of mind of a good part of the Iranian population, which is no longer at all as favorable to the nuclear deal as it was in 2015. A lot of Iranians have the feeling that Iran has been rolled in the flour, that we have given a lot to receive nothing in return.
Taking this into account, taking the first step, for the Rouhani administration and for the camp of moderates, would amount to political suicide in a way.
We must also take into account the pre-electoral context in Iran, where any sign of weakness will have consequences for the upcoming presidential election, especially for the moderate camp today in charge.
On Saturday February 20, the Director General of the IAEA (the International Atomic Energy Agency) is due to visit Tehran. What to expect from this visit?
It is a visit that takes place in a fairly tense climate, since Iran has announced that it will cease from February 23 to apply the additional protocol to the non-proliferation treaty, which allowed IAEA inspectors to carry out almost unannounced visits to the various Iranian nuclear sites.
This does not mean that there will be no more visits, but that these will be subject to more notice.
In other words, the verification will be less.
But the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency is in a way there to play the intermediary.
He will certainly try to convince the Iranians.
In Tehran, it has always been stressed that the diplomatic door is always open, but I have no doubt that Iran will take this opportunity to reiterate its position and its demands, to stress that it is the Americans who left the agreement on nuclear.
And to say, as they have already done in recent weeks, that if tomorrow Washington decides to lift the sanctions and return to the nuclear agreement, Tehran will do the same with its commitments, which it will start again. fully and completely respect.
► To read also: Iran: after the inauguration of Biden, the hope of a lifting of the sanctions imposed by Trump
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