In France, several automobile factories are forced to reduce their production rate for lack of electronic chips.
The semiconductor market, an essential supplier for smartphones, computers, game consoles and other sectors, faces a risk of shortages that worries France and Europe.
DECRYPTION
A few millimeters of technology that are worth gold: semiconductors, components essential to the operation of any electronic device, are in short supply in the world.
For several months, certain sectors have been sticking their tongue out, from smartphones, with Apple, which had to postpone the release of its iPhone 12 from September to October, to the automotive sector, with several manufacturers forced to slow down their production.
Everyone is always asking for more microchips, but suppliers are struggling to keep up.
Europe, dependent on Asia, is worried about the future.
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Essential components but long to produce
Semiconductors have been an essential component of the electronics industry for half a century.
"Historically, they were found in radios, televisions, then personal computers and telephones," recalls Aurélien Duthoit, economist at the credit insurer Euler Hermès.
"Smartphones now represent 30% of semiconductor sales worldwide, on par with the PC and server market."
Beyond the historical sectors, we find electronic chips everywhere today: in the automobile (10% of sales), video game consoles or even mobile networks, including 5G deployed for a few months.
With the exception of the automotive sector, all of these sectors had an exceptional year 2020 thanks to multiple lockdowns around the world.
“We had more significant smartphone sales than expected with, for example, the great success of the iPhone 12 in the fourth quarter. Besides, the PC market returned to growth for the first time in ten years with the "boom in teleworking. And then there was the launch of the new Playstation and Xbox", explains Aurélien Duthoit.
All of this contributed to a rapid increase in demand for semiconductors, when inventories were already at a fairly low level due to the trade dispute between China and the United States.
Except that it is a long-term industry which cannot increase its production capacities in a few days.
It takes about four months to produce a batch of chips with 200 to 300 operations to transform the raw material, silicon, into a concentrate of technologies.
Obviously, there is therefore a latency time to meet the high demand.
"In addition to all this, there was a rapid recovery in the automotive market at the end of 2020. Manufacturers all increased their orders for semiconductors at the same time. Hence the shortage," explains the economist of Euler Hermès.
The automotive industry heavily penalized
A shortage that particularly concerns car manufacturers, not at all a priority in the delivery of chips.
In the United States, Ford and General Motors were the first affected, then, in Europe, Volkswagen was one of the first to alert on the subject, before, in France, Renault and Stellantis were in turn impacted.
Everyone says it is now day-to-day management that has been installed, production must be adjusted according to the components available and no longer solely according to orders.
Renault, for example, reduced work to one day a week at several sites, notably in Spain.
Few lasting consequences for the moment in France but certain overtime hours scheduled for Saturdays have been abolished at the Toyota plant in Onnaing.
The shortage affects the Yaris petrol version, with an estimated drop in production of 6% for the 1st quarter.
In fact, the shortage of semiconductors concerns elements that manufacturers cannot do without: for driving aids but also for the ABS system or simply the central locking of the doors.
Manufacturers actually depend on equipment manufacturers (Bosch, Faurecia, Valeo, Continental) who depend on founders, those who produce these chips.
A very concentrated market, the Taiwanese TSMC owns 70% of the market.
"What is certain is that there will be less turnover for the automakers. It is estimated that it is perhaps up to a million vehicles, in the world, that will not be not produced because of this shortage of semiconductors, which we imagine to be able to last another year, "argues Arnaud Aymé, automotive specialist at Sia Partners.
The new hobbyhorse of France and Europe
The stake is therefore strategic and Europe is not in good shape.
30 years ago, the Old Continent represented 44% of semiconductor production.
Today, Asia devours everything: Taiwan, South Korea, China and Japan together account for 70% of the market.
Europe has fallen to a small 9%, just behind the United States (12%).
But the current shortage sounds like an alarm to try to limit the damage before it is definitely too late.
"We must be ambitious, we have not lost the race," assured Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for Industry on Monday.
The European Union will thus set up a Project of Common European Interest (CEIP) on electronics, a vast reindustrialisation plan for semiconductors, like the one already launched for electric batteries.
Defended by France and Germany, it will have two objectives: to ensure that the takeover of strategic companies by American or Asian competitors is avoided and to promote the relocation of semiconductor production to European soil.
"Our dependence on Asia is excessive and unacceptable (…) it makes us vulnerable", lamented Bruno Le Maire.
The Minister of the Economy also intends to act at the national level.
As part of the recovery plan, France is looking for candidates to relocate the production of chips.
A company has already been convinced: X-Fab, a German manufacturer which will invest 21 million euros in its French site, in Essonne, rather than in Malaysia.
It is a first step but we must not wait for a miracle.
At Bercy, we admit that "the problem will not be solved in a snap, it will take a long time".
But we must not miss the train, the economic stakes are enormous: the semiconductor market could double by 2030.