Affected by the African swine fever, China's live pig production capacity has been hit. While stimulating pork imports to double year-on-year in 2020, hitting a record high, imports of beef as an alternative product have also reached the 2 million tons mark for the first time.

However, in this context, the prices of pork and beef have gone out of different graphs.

　　Behind the separation of prices, there are not only the government’s continuous release of positive information about the steady recovery of pig production capacity, which has led to fluctuations in pork prices; there is also the hindrance of foreign tourism due to the gap in the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic at home and abroad, which is good for domestic consumption and is caused by the increase in consumer consumption. The resulting upgrade of the dietary consumption structure has pushed up the price of beef slowly.

Pork imports hit a new high and live pig production capacity continues to recover

　　In August 2018, an outbreak of African swine fever occurred in China.

Prior to this, due to the domestic preference for fresh meat, pork imports remained at about 1.2 million tons.

By 2019, domestic live pig production capacity has fallen rapidly, the price difference between domestic and foreign pork is obvious, and imported meat has become an important means of regulating the domestic pork market, and pork imports have soared to 2.1 million tons.

　　Despite the recovery of live pig production capacity in 2020, pork production according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows 41.13 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%.

In this context, even if there are frequent problems with imported frozen products in the second half of 2020 and imports are restricted, meat imports still exceed expectations.

　　According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China will import 9.91 million tons of meat (including offal) in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 60.4%.

Among them, pork imports amounted to 4.3922 million tons, an increase of 108.34% year-on-year.

　　It is worth noting that in 2020, imported pork will account for 10.7% of domestic pork supply.

This data was only 2.3% in 2017 before the outbreak of African swine fever.

　　With pork imports hitting new highs, domestic pig production capacity is also continuing to recover.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in June and July 2020, the stocks of reproductive sows and live pigs have achieved year-on-year growth, which has become an important turning point for the recovery of live pig production.

The pork market generally showed improvement in supply, and prices began to fluctuate and fall until the end of November.

　　According to the joint monitoring by the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Shandong Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., from the 47th week of 2020 (November 23-27, 2020) to the second week of 2021 (January 11-15, 2021 ), the weekly average of the total ex-factory price index of lean white striped pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) increased month-on-month, from 37.43 yuan per kilogram to 46.56 yuan, an increase of more than 40 days.

　　The reasons for the sequential increase were not only the seasonal factors of cured bacon, but also the collateral effects caused by the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic.

Beginning in late November 2020, many southern provinces have begun to produce cured wax, and farmers and large-scale farms are expected to increase in bullish expectations but are reluctant to sell, supporting the price of live pigs and pork to rise to high levels.

Entering 2021, in the first half of January, the outbreak of new crowns in North China, Northeast China and other places will be spotted. In addition, consumers in the affected areas are accelerating the hoarding of goods before the Spring Festival. At the same time, road traffic in some areas is limited, and the transportation of live pigs and pork is not smooth. , Supporting the prices of live pigs and pork.

　　In the second half of January, the supply of live pigs began to continue to increase, terminal consumption was slightly affected by the sporadic spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the prices of live pigs and pork fell slightly.

There are also factors that the state puts in reserve meat to regulate.

At the end of 2020, pork imports have surged and they have been added to the central reserve of frozen pork.

According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, with the release of 30,000 tons of frozen pork from the central reserve that day, up to now, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments have organized a total of 9 batches of 240,000 tons of listed stock.

　　Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of Sozhu.com, told a reporter from China Business News that before the Spring Festival, pork prices fell for a month. This is relatively rare, and there is a selling factor caused by the African swine fever epidemic.

Generally speaking, the pork demand is relatively poor after the Spring Festival each year, and the probability of pig prices falling will be greater.

However, the amount of slaughter sold this time is relatively large and concentrated, which may lead to a decrease in the number of large-weight fat pigs available for slaughter after the Spring Festival, making the price likely to rise, but overall, the probability of a decline in the price of pigs will be greater .

　　Industry insiders also predict that from the current situation, the key factor affecting the trend of pig prices after the Spring Festival is the epidemic. After all, there is greater uncertainty in the epidemic. If the post-holiday selling continues, the price of pigs may still fall further, but in the long run The probability of a strong pig price will therefore increase.

If the slaughter is reduced, the price of pigs may rebound, but the import of frozen pork continues to enter the market in large quantities, and the impact on the price of pigs cannot be ignored.

Tight beef supply and demand drive prices up steadily

　　With pork imports hitting a record high, beef imports exceeded 1 million tons for the first time in 2018, surged to 1.659 million tons in 2019, and then increased to 2.118 million tons in 2020. In just three years, beef imports have doubled.

In addition, imported beef accounted for the proportion of domestic beef supply, which was 16.1% in 2018, 24.9% in 2019, and 31.5% in 2020.

　　The supply of beef has been tight for a long time, leading to high prices of beef, especially after the outbreak of African swine fever, which stimulated the increase in consumption of pork substitute products, combined with the hindrance of foreign tourism consumption and the upgrading of dietary consumption structure, and beef prices showed a steady increase. situation.

On January 31, 2021, the "2020 Beef Cattle and Yak Industry Technology Development Report" officially released by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture shows that the wholesale beef market price rose from 71.53 yuan/kg in January 2020 to 87.32 yuan/kg in December. Prices continue to rise.

　　Cao Binghai, chief scientist of the National Beef and Yak Industrial Technology System and a professor at China Agricultural University, said that in the future, the rigid growth of beef consumption in the domestic market and the tight supply situation will continue to be the main logic supporting the upward price of beef.

At the same time, we must also consider the impact of the prevention and control of the newly introduced cattle nodular skin disease from abroad, and the impact of imports and smuggling caused by the obvious price difference between domestic and foreign beef.

　　Author: Shao Haipeng