Chinanews client, Beijing, February 10 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 10th, showing that in January 2021, the national consumer price (CPI) fell 0.3% year-on-year and turned negative again.

CPI year-on-year rise and fall trend chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

January CPI changed from positive to negative year-on-year

  Affected by the increase in food prices, the CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year in December 2020, turning from negative to positive.

Why did the January CPI turn negative again year-on-year?

  "The wrong month of the Spring Festival led to a higher comparison base in the same period last year, and the CPI went from a 0.2% increase last month to a 0.3% decrease." Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained.

  Data show that food prices in January rose 1.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI's rise by about 0.30 percentage points.

In food, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 10.9%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points; the price of pork fell by 3.9%, and the rate of decrease expanded by 2.6 percentage points; the prices of chicken and duck meat fell by 10.7% and 6.8%, respectively, and the rates of decline both narrowed.

  In addition, non-food prices changed from flat last month to a drop of 0.8%, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.64 percentage points.

Among non-food items, transportation and communication prices fell by 4.6%, housing prices fell by 0.4%, and medical care prices rose by 0.4%.

  "According to estimates, in the 0.3% year-on-year decrease in January, the carry-over impact of last year's price changes was about -1.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.0 percentage point." Dong Lijuan pointed out that the core CPI deducting food and energy prices A year-on-year decrease of 0.3% was mainly due to the significant year-on-year decline in service prices.

  According to Dong Lijuan, January 2020 coincides with the Spring Festival, and the impact of the epidemic has not yet appeared, and service prices have risen more.

During the Spring Festival in February this year, coupled with the impact of the local epidemic, the consumption of residents' travel and some contact services decreased in January, and the prices of travel services fell more year-on-year. Among them, the prices of air tickets and travel agency fees decreased by 33.2% and 9.9% respectively. ; The prices of other services have also fallen year-on-year. The price of hairdressing has fallen by 1.3% year-on-year, and the price of family services has fallen from 3.5% last year to 0.9% this year.

Data map: On January 26, people in Lingshou County, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, purchased goods at a local supermarket.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Hou Yu

Meat, eggs, vegetables "go crazy", food prices rise month-on-month

  "From a month-on-month perspective, due to the approaching festivals, local epidemics and low temperature weather, the CPI rose by 1.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month." Dong Lijuan said, of which, food prices rose by 4.1% from the previous month, with an increase of 1.3%. percentage point.

  Among foods, the sharp increase in prices of vegetables, eggs, pigs, cattle, and sheep is the main factor.

  "Affected by cooling and rain and snow in some areas, the cost of fresh vegetable production, storage and transportation increased, and the price rose by 19.0%, an increase of 10.5 percentage points; due to the decline in the stock of laying hens, and the epidemic affecting the export of eggs in some areas, the price of eggs Increased 11.1%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points; affected by factors such as increased consumer demand before the holiday and rising feed costs, the prices of pork, beef and lamb rose by 5.6%, 1.2% and 2.7%, respectively." Dong Lijuan said.

  However, as the country has increased the supply of pork and vegetables, market supply has increased, and the prices of edible agricultural products have gradually stabilized.

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, from January 25 to 31, the market prices of edible agricultural products in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country fell by 0.5% from the previous week.

The prices of eggs and pork fell by 3.9% and 1.7% respectively; the prices of 17 kinds of vegetables including cauliflower, spinach, and broccoli dropped to varying degrees.

  The Spring Festival is approaching, people are most concerned about the stability of the "vegetable basket"?

"Currently, my country's live pig production capacity is recovering well, and the production of livestock, poultry, fruits and vegetables, and aquatic products is stable and sufficient. It is expected that the overall production situation of'vegetable basket' products during the Spring Festival will be good, and the market supply is fully guaranteed." Deputy Director Mao Dezhi pointed out.

Data map: Citizens are buying pork.

Photo by Sun Rui

The annual CPI is expected to rise first and then stabilize

  In 2020, the rise and fall of the prices of "Second Brothers" has become an important factor affecting CPI changes.

Pork prices have fallen again recently.

  According to the "National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System" monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from January 29 to February 5, the wholesale price of pork was 45.85 yuan/kg, down 2.0% from the previous month and 6.1% year-on-year.

  "Since 2020, under the dual effects of market stimulus and policy incentives, live pig production has continued to accelerate recovery, the African swine fever epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the supply of live pigs in the market has continued to improve." Over the same period, it increased by about 25%, and the relationship between supply and demand will become more relaxed in the later period.

  "The price rebound caused by seasonal and weather factors will gradually fade after the beginning of the spring. The high base effect and the continued decline in pork prices will put downward pressure on the overall price." Tan Zhuo, director of the China Merchants Bank Macroeconomic Research Institute, pointed out that the global economy Rehabilitation will drive energy prices to rise further.

As the economy returns to normal, demand recovery combined with a low base effect will boost consumption, drive the core CPI to rise and support the overall price. The CPI will gradually rise from the second quarter.

  "Overall, my country's price level will probably maintain a moderate increase in 2021. Affected by the base of the same period last year, it is expected that the national CPI will increase first and then stabilize." Central Bank Vice Governor Chen Yulu said a few days ago.