Chinanews Client Beijing, February 10th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January.
Many institutions predict that the CPI in January may turn negative again year-on-year due to lower tail-raising factors.
The same-month-on-month rise and fall trends of CPI.
From the National Bureau of Statistics
January CPI year-on-year or turn negative again
The "Second Brothers" rebounded, and under the concerted efforts of "Bull Demon King" and "Sheep Royal Concubine", in December 2020, the CPI changed from a 0.5% year-on-year decrease in the previous month to a 0.2% increase.
In January 2021, affected by factors such as the season and the epidemic, the prices of some vegetables and eggs once rose sharply. Will this drive the CPI to continue to increase year-on-year?
According to the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the “Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index” in January 2021 was 136.53, an increase of 11.08 points month-on-month and 7.51 points year-on-year.
Specifically, the average wholesale price of pork (white strip meat) was 46.69 yuan/kg, up 7.9% month-on-month and down 0.3% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of beef was 75.69 yuan/kg, up 1.9% month-on-month and up 8.7% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of mutton 71.53 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.7% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of eggs was 9.49 yuan/kg, an increase of 18.8% month-on-month, and an increase of 6.7% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of vegetables was RMB 5.28/kg, an increase of 26.7% month-on-month and an increase year-on-year 16.1%.
"Food prices have risen significantly since the beginning of January. The peak consumption season of the Spring Festival is approaching, which has promoted a significant increase in food prices month-on-month, but the increase is not as good as the same period in previous years." said Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center. Non-food prices have increased.
"According to estimates, the tail-lifting factor in January was -1.22%. Affected by the lowering of the tail-lifting factor, the year-on-year increase or decline is expected to be between -0.5% and -0.3%, with the median value -0.4%." Liu Xuezhi pointed out.
According to statistics from Flush iFinD, the average forecast value of 17 institutions for January CPI year-on-year increase is -0.32%.
If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the CPI in January will be lower than that in December 2020 year-on-year, and will turn negative again.
Data map: Pork area in a supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.
Photo by Xie Yiguan
Prices of pork and other items have fallen, what is the trend of CPI in the later period?
As the Spring Festival approaches, the wholesale prices of meat, eggs, and vegetables have fallen.
According to the monitoring of the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from January 29 to February 5, the wholesale price of pork was 45.85 yuan/kg, down 2.0% from the previous month and 6.1% year-on-year.
"The volume of pork slaughter in 2021 is expected to return to the annual average level in the first and second quarters, and the price of pork will also show a steady downward trend after the holiday. Although the increase in feed prices will underpin the price of live pigs to a certain extent, in 2020 Under the influence of a higher base effect, the year-on-year decline in pork prices in 2021 will still have a large negative drag on the annual CPI." said Xu Ke, a researcher at the Zhixin Investment Research Institute.
"Non-food prices will be further restored in the context of international oil prices rebounding and economic recovery." Xu Ke said that the cumulative annual CPI may fluctuate around 1.5% year-on-year.
"Overall, my country's price level will probably maintain a moderate increase in 2021. Affected by the base of the same period last year, it is expected that the national CPI will increase first and then stabilize." Central Bank Deputy Governor Chen Yulu said on January 15. .
With CPI running at a low level, many people worry about whether there will be deflation.
In this regard, the central bank released the fourth quarter of 2020 China's monetary policy implementation report on February 8th, pointing out that the overall price increase is operating within a reasonable range, and there is no basis for long-term inflation or deflation.
The central bank believes that since the fourth quarter of 2020, my country’s CPI has dropped to near zero and has been negative in individual months. It is mainly affected by factors such as the epidemic, pork price fluctuations, and high base numbers. The beginning of 2021 will also be disturbed by the dislocation of the Spring Festival. These effects are In the short-term and temporary, after the base effect and supply disturbances gradually subsided, CPI is expected to rebound and stabilize.
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