China News Agency, Beijing, February 5 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said in an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face-to-face" that China’s economic situation in 2021 should not be overly optimistic. Stay awake.
Under the epidemic, China's economy will perform better than expected in 2020.
Recently, the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund have issued forecast reports, giving positive comments on China's economic development in 2021.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "China Focus Face to Face".
Photo by China News Agency reporter Jiang Qiming
Sheng Laiyun said that this fully demonstrated the confidence of these institutions in the stable development of China's economy.
The reasons why they gave positive comments on China's economy are mainly reflected in four aspects.
First, China's economic recovery is improving.
For example, in the fourth quarter of last year, China's GDP grew by 6.5% year-on-year, and the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.1% year-on-year, both higher than the same period in the fourth quarter of 2019.
There is a view that China's economy has basically returned to normal from the fourth quarter of last year, and this development trend will continue in 2021.
Second, China's epidemic prevention and control is effective and effective, which has supported the development of consumption and service industries to a certain extent.
Although the current epidemic has not been completely eliminated, and there is a scattered situation, all parties generally believe that the impact of the epidemic this year will be significantly lower than the previous year.
In this case, China has experience in fighting the epidemic, which is beneficial to related industries, especially some contact service industries.
Third, the current international situation has improved.
Several major international institutions have given positive judgments on the recovery of the global economy on a low base.
The world economy is recovering. In particular, the stimulus policies of some countries will not be withdrawn soon, which to a certain extent constitutes a positive support for China's external demand.
The fourth is the cardinal effect.
Sheng Laiyun said that China's economic growth rate in the first quarter of last year was -6.8%, and there was a "big hole".
A low base will significantly increase the year-on-year growth rate.
But he also reminded that the extent of the influence of these causes still needs to be carefully analyzed, and the mechanism of some factors still needs to be accurately judged.
For example, the epidemic situation is scattered and frequently occurring. China has experience in controlling the epidemic, but its impact still exists.
In terms of the international environment, Sheng Laiyun believes that the world economy in 2021 may be significantly better than in 2020, but after all, the epidemic is still spreading globally.
"Everyone has great expectations for vaccines, but the supply capacity and quality of vaccines, whether they can meet the needs of people all over the world, and whether they can be evenly distributed are issues worthy of observation."
The base problem cannot be overestimated. Some institutions predict that China’s economic growth rate will exceed 18% or even reach 20% in the first quarter of 2021, based on the fact that the average growth rate of China’s economy in the past two years and this year should be close to potential productivity. Sheng Laiyun emphasized that in fact this simple calculation is not very scientific, because some economic aggregate losses cannot be made up. Forecasts should still be based on accurate and objective statistics. (Finish)