China-Singapore Jingwei Client, February 4th, the central bank's website announced on the 4th that in order to maintain stable liquidity before the Spring Festival, the People's Bank of China launched a 100 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation on February 4, 2021 through an interest rate bidding method.

  Source: Central Bank's official website

  Wind data shows that this week, the central bank's open market will have 384 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity; no positive repurchase and central bank bills will expire.

  In terms of funding, on February 3, the inter-bank funding supply was still abundant, and the overnight repo weighted interest rate continued to drop by nearly 37 basis points to around 1.86%, returning below the 2% mark, and the seven-day varieties fell more than 12 basis points to 2.11% Nearby, it continued to hit a two-week low.

  Since January 27, the central bank ended the previous “land volume” reverse repurchase, and liquidity investment gradually became warmer, and large-scale investment was resumed for several consecutive working days.

Among them, 180 billion yuan of reverse repurchase was carried out on January 27, 80 billion yuan on February 2, and 100 billion yuan was carried out on January 28 and 29, and on February 1 and 3.

  It is understood that in accordance with the practice in previous years, the central bank will carry out a 14-day reverse repurchase operation before the Spring Festival to meet the market's cross-section funding needs.

  The market is also discussing when the 14-day reverse repurchase will come.

Everbright Securities previously analyzed that the central bank did not carry out the 14-day reverse repurchase operation this year because it has not yet reached the time window.

Everbright Securities stated that, on the one hand, the 14-day funds invested before January 28 will not be able to cross the Spring Festival; on the other hand, the 14-day funds invested from January 28 to February 4 will be concentrated at the beginning of the holiday. The expiration of two trading days (that is, February 18) may bring continuous pressure on that day.

Putting a few days later can spread the expiry date as much as possible, and it is more reasonable at the mercy of liquidity.

  China International Futures believes that there is a high probability that there will be continuous liquidity injections during the previous period. However, reviewing the central bank's recent operations, "prudence + stability maintenance" dominates, and the investment is somewhat "small". Will the subsequent investment be satisfied? The market expects and is skeptical that perhaps this year's Spring Festival will be spent under tight capital balance.

  Pacific Securities said that the short-term domestic currency tightening is intended to revise market expectations of ultra-loose and suppress speculative behavior. Monetary policy remains "not rapid". Monetary policy support is still needed for normal work resumption after the year, and subsequent market interest rates are significantly higher than policy The interest rate situation is expected to be revised, but there is uncertainty about the timing of the restoration.

With the subsequent revision of liquidity expectations, there is still an opportunity for spring turbulence in February.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)