Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, February 3rd. On the 3rd, Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute released the "2020 National Housing Price Report in 100 Cities" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report").

According to the "Report", in 2020, the average transaction price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 16,018 yuan per square meter, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year.

Among them, the

average transaction price of newly-built commercial housing in first-tier cities was 44,968 yuan/square meter, up 2.7% year-on-year; the average transaction price of newly-built commercial housing in 32 second-tier cities was 15,599 yuan/square meter, up 9.6% year-on-year.

Experts pointed out that in 2020, housing prices will rise slightly more than expected, and housing prices in 100 cities will rise in double digits, indicating that stable housing prices are still facing various pressures.

Housing prices in 100 cities across the country will increase by nearly 11% in 2020

  The "Report" pointed out that by observing the increase in housing prices in 100 cities across the country in the past 10 years, it can be seen that the annual increase in 2011-2018 is at a single-digit level, while in 2019 and 2020 it will be at a double-digit level, 11.2% and 11.2%. 10.8%.

In contrast, the rising trend of housing prices in the past two years has become more obvious.

As for 2020, the overall credit environment tends to be loose, and some real estate speculation funds are speeding up to enter the property market.

Especially under the epidemic situation, real estate’s "safe haven" attributes are more obvious, and all kinds of funds will enter faster, which will easily cause housing prices to rise too fast.

This also shows that there is a bubble in housing prices in 100 cities, and its trend has deviated from the fundamentals, and the follow-up needs to be strictly controlled.

  Specific to the trend of housing prices in 2020, it can be seen that the year-on-year growth curve of the average transaction price of newly built commercial residential buildings at the beginning of the year shows a trend of "rising-narrowing-stabilizing".

Among them, in the first quarter, because housing transactions were affected by the epidemic, market transaction data was weak, resulting in data changes.

Since the second quarter, the increase in housing prices in such cities has begun to narrow, but this is a callback based on abnormal data.

In the second half of the year, there is not much room for the curve to go down, especially when the demand for home purchases in various places is obviously released.

First-tier cities did not see much growth

  In terms of different cities, the "Report" shows that the growth of first-tier cities is not large but the pressure is actually greater.

In 2020, the average transaction price of newly-built commercial housing in 4 first-tier cities was 44,968 yuan per square meter, up 2.7% year-on-year.

Observing the year-on-year data on the price increase in first-tier cities in the last 10 years, it can be seen that the increase in 2020 is not large, or even at a historically low level.

This is very different from the actual experience, which shows that the filing of high-priced projects is relatively strict.

In terms of specific cities, in the fourth quarter of 2020, housing looting has occurred in first-tier cities, especially Shanghai and Guangzhou.

At present, the central government clearly proposes to solve the housing problem in big cities. Therefore, it is necessary to actively increase housing prices in the follow-up and make real prices drop, which has become a content that needs to be actively paid attention to in first-tier cities.

  The "Report" shows that the growth rate of second-tier cities has increased slightly.

In 2020, the average transaction price of newly-built commercial housing in 32 second-tier cities was 15,599 yuan per square meter, up 9.6% year-on-year.

Observing the growth rate in the last 10 years, the growth rate in 2020 is in the middle level.

However, comparing the data in 2019, it can be seen that the increase has slightly expanded.

With the liberalization of household registration policies in second-tier cities and the accelerated introduction of population, the demand for housing purchases in these cities is expected to continue to release, so housing prices are likely to rise and fall.

Especially in the new first-tier cities, the subsequent work of stabilizing housing prices needs to continue.

  The "Report" shows that third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced relatively moderate growth in the past three years.

In 2020, the average transaction price of newly-built commercial housing in 64 third- and fourth-tier cities was RMB 12,287 per square meter, up 8.1% year-on-year.

Observing the housing price growth data of the third and fourth tier cities in the last 10 years, it can be seen that compared with the growth rate in 2017, the growth rate from 2018 to 2020 is relatively small.

This is a good match with its housing transaction market.

Especially in 2020, the housing market in third- and fourth-tier cities will be relatively sluggish, which will also restrict the expansion of housing prices.

Expert: Strictly control all kinds of illegal funds or real estate funds in 2021

  Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that in 2020, housing prices will increase slightly more than expected, and housing prices in 100 cities will rise in double digits, indicating that stable housing prices are still facing various pressures.

Moreover, it seems that housing prices in some cities have not risen much, but in fact there have been chaos such as house looting, which further shows that the stability of housing prices is facing more complicated problems.

Especially under the epidemic, all kinds of funds have accelerated their entry into the property market, which has become an important reason for pushing up the housing price bubble.

This also makes the trend of housing prices deviate from economic fundamentals, which requires active management and control.

New latitude and longitude in the data map

  Yan Yuejin believes that to truly promote the matching of housing prices and economic fundamentals in 2021, it is necessary to strictly control various types of illegal funds or real estate funds.

First, in the credit sector, it is necessary to block all types of illegal funds from entering the property market, especially consumer loans, business loans, and down payment loans.

Second, the qualifications for buying houses should be further tightened, especially to crack down on false divorces, bank card fraud, and house name changes in violation of regulations.

Only in this way can real estate speculation funds be blocked, housing price trends can match economic fundamentals, and housing price bubbles can be reduced.

The 100 cities are divided according to the first, second, third and fourth tier cities as follows:

  4 first-tier cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen.

32 second-tier cities: Harbin, Changchun, Shenyang, Dalian, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Jinan, Qingdao, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Nanchang, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Guiyang, Nanning, Haikou , Kunming, Chongqing, Chengdu, Xi'an, Lanzhou, Xining, Hohhot, Yinchuan, Urumqi.

64 third- and fourth-tier cities: Dandong, Qinhuangdao, Tangshan, Chengde, Langfang, Yanjiao, Xianghe, Dachang, Gu'an, Baoding, Zhangjiakou, Yantai, Weihai, Rizhao, Jining, Xuzhou, Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Wuxi, Jiangyin , Kunshan, Nantong, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Jiashan, Huzhou, Zhoushan, Jinhua, Huainan, Bengbu, Anqing, Wuhu, Ma'anshan, Chuzhou, Quanzhou, Jinjiang, Zhangzhou, Putian, Ganzhou, Jiujiang, Jingdezhen, Zhuzhou, Yueyang, Changde, Xiangyang , Jingmen, Yichang, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan, Zhongshan, Zhaoqing, Huizhou, Qingyuan, Shaoguan, Maoming, Zhanjiang, Beihai, Liuzhou, Guilin, Sanya, Luoyang, Baotou.

It should be noted that Yanjiao is the administrative level of a town, but considering the large scale of the city, it is also included in the scope of third- and fourth-tier cities.

  (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)