Vaccination accelerated promotion support policies continue to be introduced

The global economic recovery is better than expected

　　On January 26, local time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the updated content of the World Economic Outlook Report. It is estimated that the global economy will grow by 5.5% this year, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast in October last year, and the global economic growth in 2022 is expected. 4.2%.

　　The pace of recovery in various economies has accelerated

　　According to the IMF, the overall economic growth momentum of various regions in the second half of 2020 is stronger than expected. In 2020, the global economy may shrink by 3.5%, which is 0.9 percentage points lower than its previous forecast.

In the future, the promotion of vaccination is expected to further boost the global economy. The recovery prospects of various economies mainly depend on factors such as the degree of medical intervention and the effectiveness of policy support.

　　The IMF believes that there will be huge differences in the degree of recovery of various economies.

Developed economies are expected to recover faster due to greater policy support and faster access to vaccines.

　　Specifically, advanced economies will grow by 4.3% this year, of which the United States will grow by 5.1%, the Eurozone will grow by 4.2% as a whole, Japan will grow by 3.1%, and the United Kingdom will grow by 4.5%.

Emerging market economies and developing countries will grow by 6.3%.

　　Global trade is expected to recover simultaneously.

The IMF predicts that global trade will grow by 8.1% in 2021 and 6.3% in 2022, but the recovery of service trade will be slower than commodity trade.

　　In terms of monetary policy, the IMF predicts that major central banks around the world will maintain the current interest rate policy until the end of 2022. The financial conditions of developed economies will generally remain at the current level, while the financial conditions of emerging market economies and developing countries will gradually improve.

　　With the gradual recovery of the global economy, commodity prices will also rise. It is estimated that in 2021, international oil prices will rise by about 20% from the low point in 2020.

The prices of other commodities are also expected to rise, especially the price of metals that will rise sharply in 2021.

　　China's economy injects momentum for the better

　　"The Chinese economy will return to the level expected before the epidemic in the fourth quarter of 2020, ahead of all major economies. Effective epidemic prevention and control measures, strong public investment, and the central bank’s liquidity support will provide China’s economy with a strong recovery. Strong support.” The IMF pointed out in its report.

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China a few days ago, China's gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed 100 trillion yuan for the first time in 2020.

In the context of the epidemic hitting the global economy, China's sustained economic recovery has boosted global confidence and injected China's momentum.

　　"China can reduce the local spread of the virus to a very low level through effective prevention and control measures." In an interview with this reporter, the head of the IMF's research department, Mahal Naba, believes that China can provide other economies with economic recovery. Based on experience, without such effective prevention and control and assistance measures, it is difficult for economic activities to return to normal levels.

For example, the Chinese government has introduced measures to help affected enterprises and households, provide support credits, ensure their cash flow, and ensure that economic activities can resume quickly.

In terms of supporting infrastructure, China has also taken broader measures to strengthen economic recovery after the epidemic.

Mahal Nabba said that in the future, China's economic growth will focus more on shifting from investment-driven to consumption-driven.

　　In addition, according to the latest data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the total global foreign direct investment (FDI) has fallen sharply in 2020, but China’s FDI bucked the trend and increased to 163 billion US dollars, becoming the world’s largest foreign inflow country.

Mahal Nabba believes that the recovery of foreign investment in China has exceeded expectations, showing that China has made great progress in attracting foreign investment.

China is currently promoting economic restructuring, further opening up, and encouraging more foreign investment. This will help rebalance the Chinese economy and lay the foundation for sustainable growth.

　　The outlook for recovery remains uncertain

　　The IMF stated that the prospects for global economic recovery are still full of high uncertainty.

Due to the emergence of a new round of epidemics and the accelerated spread of mutated viruses, some countries have taken blockade measures again.

Coupled with the uneven distribution of vaccines, it casts a shadow on the road to global economic recovery.

　　"The recovery of the world economy largely depends on the speed of vaccine promotion and the degree of virus control in the next few months, and the policy support of various economies is also critical." Mahal Nabha said.

　　IMF chief economist Geita Gopita believes that accelerating vaccination, increasing medical intervention, and additional policy support can improve and boost the economy, while slow vaccine promotion, virus mutations and early withdrawal of policy support will lead to The prospects for recovery have deteriorated.

　　The IMF recommends that governments continue to provide policy support until the economy recovers steadily, ensure financial stability, and maintain loose monetary policies. At the same time, it reminds that a tightened financial environment may increase risks and plunge some economies into debt crises.

　　The IMF calls on the international community to strengthen international cooperation, jointly control the epidemic, and work together to promote the recovery of the world economy.

“The international community must act quickly to ensure that vaccines and treatments are quickly and widely available worldwide,” Geita Gopita said. This will require increasing vaccine production and providing logistics financial support for the delivery of vaccines to poorer countries. Get widely distributed.

The debt levels of low-income countries have further risen during the epidemic. The international community needs to continue to cooperate closely to ensure that these countries can obtain sufficient international liquidity.

　　"Faced with unprecedented global challenges, the international community must take immediate action to ensure full control of the epidemic, bridge the differences between and within countries, and promote a more prosperous, green and inclusive future." Gita Gopita Said.

　　Wu Lejun