Affected by factors such as in-situ Chinese New Year——
Spring Festival ticket prices continue to fall
Our reporter Cui Guoqiang
Compared with previous years, this year's Spring Festival ticket prices are somewhat special.
According to data released by the online travel platform Qunar, as of January 25, the average price paid for air ticket reservations has dropped to 651.36 yuan, the lowest average price paid for air tickets before the Spring Festival travel in 5 years.
Why did the ticket booking price hit the lowest level in 5 years? What kind of market signals does this reflect and what impact does it have on airlines and the aviation market?
Recently, the reporter interviewed relevant experts.
Qi Qi, an associate professor at Guangzhou Civil Aviation Vocational and Technical College, said that the reason for the lowest ticket booking price is due to the changes in the supply and demand of the air transport market.
During the Spring Festival transport in previous years, the flow of air transport passengers, such as returning home to visit relatives, students on vacation, and leisure vacations, was superimposed, often in short supply, and fares would be high and full prices.
"This year's Spring Festival Transport, due to the need for the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, local governments have introduced policies to encourage local Chinese New Year, and the flow of passengers going home to visit relatives and leisure vacations has been greatly reduced. In terms of airport schedules and airline capacity, as the epidemic is still spreading globally, international flights The number has been reduced on a large scale, and both airport time and airline wide-body aircraft can be used to guarantee the Spring Festival transport. The capacity exceeds previous years, the supply is significantly greater than the demand, and a substantial reduction in ticket prices is inevitable." Qi Qi told reporters.
Li Yanhua, director of the Department of Civil Aviation of the School of Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, believes that the lowest ticket booking price is affected by the pricing policy reform.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China has implemented the "Notice on Further Deepening the Reform of Civil Aviation Domestic Airline Transport Prices" on December 1, 2020, expanding the range of domestic air routes for which the civil aviation market adjusts prices, from 5 or more (including 5) in the past. The domestic routes were reduced to three or more (including three) to achieve market-adjusted prices, and 370 new market-adjusted routes were added.
As the supply of domestic routes increases, demand decreases, and the scope of market-adjusted price routes expands, the impact will be greater, and the price reduction will be even more pronounced.
The lower air ticket prices will have certain impact on the civil aviation industry such as airlines.
Insufficient demand, the continued low average ticket price, and the low total amount of continuous air ticket prepayments are a test for airlines’ operating cash flow.
At this stage, the airline's scientific management and timely response capabilities are the most challenging.
However, the low demand for civil aviation travel is temporary. Li Yanhua believes that when the demand rebounds rapidly, the price of civil aviation transportation can be quickly responded and adjusted accordingly.
Qi Qi gave the airlines "weapon": "It is recommended that airlines adjust traditional pricing mechanisms and upgrade business processes in a timely manner when demand is low and transportation is low, so as to minimize the time period from the discovery of demand changes to ticket price adjustments and capacity changes. This is also a new capability that airlines must establish during the normalization phase of epidemic prevention and control. Essentially, it is to enhance airlines' overall operational management capabilities."
By comparing the development of the epidemic in 2020, experts predict that the domestic air passenger transport market is expected to stabilize from April 2021. During the May 1st holiday, there will be a concentrated outbreak of travel demand suppressed during the Spring Festival, and the peak summer season will continue to be high. run.
Compared with booking "cooling" of transportation methods such as air tickets, in the past period of time, the search volume for local scenic spots during the Spring Festival on Qunar platform increased by 70% compared with the previous week, and the search volume for "wine + scenery package" increased by 40%.
As more and more people choose to celebrate the New Year on the spot, resort hotels and homestays around beautiful cities are selling well.
Experts believe that the people's demand for a happy life and high-quality leisure is still increasing. The emerging aviation markets such as intra-provincial travel and short-distance travel will deepen as my country accelerates the construction of a new development pattern. Regional aviation, short-distance transportation, low-altitude tourism, etc. will be generalized. The business is expected to achieve explosive growth.
Our reporter Cui Guoqiang