Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 29 (Dong Wenbo) At 24:00 today (29th), the second round of adjustment window for domestic refined oil prices in 2021 will open.

Institutions generally predict that with the cumulative price adjustments at the end of 2020, domestic refined oil prices have the opportunity to usher in a "six consecutive rise".

  This is the last price adjustment before the Spring Festival.

Li Yan, an oil analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out that if the increase is implemented, it will be the first "six consecutive increase" of the current price adjustment mechanism since its implementation in 2013, setting a new record of the last-year "five consecutive increase" created by the previous round of price adjustments.

New latitude and longitude in the data map

Long and short intertwined international crude oil sideways

  During this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, and US oil fluctuated above US$52-53 per barrel.

On Wednesday, local time, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly dropped by nearly 10 million barrels last week, reaching the lowest level since March 2020.

The analysts previously expected an increase of 430,000 barrels in a Reuters survey.

  According to Reuters quoted consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates President Andrew Lipow, "As the refining industry continues to convert excess crude oil into refined oil, crude oil inventories have fallen sharply, driving the market up."

  Supported by this, U.S. oil soared to $53.27 per barrel in the intraday session; however, dragged down by the weakness of U.S. stocks, oil prices gave up most of their gains.

As of the early morning of January 28, Beijing time, the price of light crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 24 cents, or 0.46%, to close at $52.85 per barrel; London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery The price fell 10 cents, or 0.18%, to close at $55.81 per barrel.

  In addition, although the U.S. government plans to launch a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan of US$1.9 trillion, some U.S. congressmen have expressed their opposition to the government’s re-significant expansion of fiscal deficits and pushing up government debt. The demand for safe-haven drives the dollar index to rise, and oil prices are under pressure. .

  However, Saudi Arabia previously announced that it would cut an additional 1 million barrels/day of production capacity in February and March.

Iraq followed closely behind, planning to cut oil production to 3.6 million barrels per day in January and February to compensate for OPEC+’s quota gap, a move that brought bottom support to the oil market.

  In this regard, Zhuo Chuang Information analysis believes that the long and short factors of international crude oil are intertwined, and the room for ups and downs is limited.

  Source of international crude oil futures trends from 2020 to present: Zhuochuang Information

"Six Yuan Era" continues

  According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the ninth working day on January 28, the average price of the reference crude oil was $55.33/barrel, and the rate of change was 2.28%. The retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by RMB 75/ton.

According to Longzhong Information, as of January 27, the comprehensive rate of change in crude oil is 2.21%, corresponding to an increase of 70 yuan/ton.

  Compared with the first round of price adjustment this year at 24:00 on January 15, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 185 yuan and 180 yuan per ton respectively. The increase is expected to be narrower than this.

  According to statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, domestic refined oil prices will undergo 25 rounds of adjustments in 2020, ending in a "four consecutive rises".

This means that after this round of price adjustments, domestic refined oil prices will achieve "six consecutive rises", and the 2021 price adjustment bureau will show "two ups, zeros, and zeros stranded."

  Jin Lianchuang analyst Bian Wenjing pointed out that after the first round of retail price increases this year, domestic gasoline retail prices have once again ushered in the "six yuan era". The gasoline price increase is 6.06-6.24 except for special areas in Hainan and Tibet. Yuan/liter.

As international oil prices fluctuate, the current round of retail prices "six yuan era" continues.

  The next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on February 18.

Li Yan said that there are potential uncertainties in the international crude oil market in the near future, such as US-Iran relations, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil prices is likely to fall.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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