High growth to high quality my country’s economic growth potential cannot be underestimated
-Seeking progress while maintaining stability, why can China's economy? ④
Editor's note: In 2020, my country's economy has made extraordinary achievements in an extraordinary year. GDP increased by 2.3% year-on-year, and the total economic volume exceeded 100 trillion yuan.
With the new crown pneumonia epidemic raging around the world, the world economy has fallen into a severe recession, and the external environment has become more complex and severe, my country's national economy has recovered steadily, and the main goals have been achieved better than expected.
"Seek progress in stability, why can China's economy?
"From different dimensions, in-depth discussion of the core power and forward momentum of China's economic development.
In 2020, facing the big test of the epidemic, my country will be the first to control the epidemic, resume work and resume production, and take the lead in realizing economic growth from negative to positive. China’s economy has ushered in an important milestone. In 2020, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be 101,5986 billion yuan, the first time. Break through the 100 trillion yuan mark.
The tremendous development achievements of China’s economy do not mean that the space for its continued development has been significantly reduced, the momentum has been significantly weakened, and the potential economic growth rate has been significantly reduced; on the contrary, this development achievement has prepared China for a new period of development. The material basis and more favorable conditions.
From high growth to high quality, my country’s economic take-off phase may last longer
Throughout the modernization history of all countries in the world, the economic modernization of major developed countries has generally experienced three stages: preparation, take-off, and maturity.
From the perspective of China's unique development path, it is currently in the development stage of comprehensively improving people's livelihood.
China's economic modernization has first experienced a development stage in which efforts have been concentrated to lay the foundation for industrialization and modern economy.
The characteristic of this stage is to concentrate capital resources for production and construction, through high accumulation and low consumption, to quickly establish a relatively complete industrial manufacturing system on the basis of poverty and waste.
At this stage of development, there are no conditions for comprehensively improving people's livelihood.
After the reform and opening up, the goal of economic development has shifted to improving people's livelihood. At the same time, it is also facing the problem that production cannot meet consumption, and there is a widespread shortage of products.
Under the background of market regulation, prices have risen rapidly, driving rapid investment growth, and consumption-related production capacity has rapidly increased. Finally, production can adapt to and meet consumption, completing the adjustment of the relationship between production and consumption.
This process is also manifested in the rapid expansion of the supply quantity and scale, as well as the sustained high economic growth.
When this process is generally over, as the pattern of shortages and supply exceeds demand, the economy will inevitably begin to shift from high growth to high quality, driven by the continuous enhancement of market competition, which means it will enter the development stage of economic development and comprehensive improvement of people’s livelihood. .
Based on China's unique national conditions, the take-off phase of China's economy will last longer and the energy released will be even greater.
From the perspective of the main contradictions, my country’s economic growth may still remain at a relatively high level
The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of my country pointed out that the main contradiction in our society in the new era is the contradiction between the people's growing need for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development.
From the perspective of uneven development and insufficient contradictions and problems, this stage of development will last a long time and the internal driving force will be very strong.
The main reason is that there is still a huge gap between the income and living standards of our people and developed countries, especially for low-income groups, underdeveloped areas, rural areas and farmers.
Eliminating these gaps in an all-round way still requires long-term hard work.
To fully meet the people’s growing needs for a better life, long-term sustainable high-quality development and construction is needed, and more extensive mobilization and full absorption of the people in the process of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization are needed. , And then continue to increase income levels and consumption capacity, while continuing to increase higher levels of supply, including modern and larger-scale urban systems, modern infrastructure systems, complete public service systems, large-scale industrialized modern agricultural production systems , Modern industrial system, high-quality products and services in the high-end industrial chain, etc.
Considering comprehensively improving the conditions and characteristics of the people's livelihood stage, it can be considered that although the economic growth rate will decline in the higher growth stage, it will remain at a relatively high level.
The potential for investment demand is huge, my country's economic growth potential still cannot be underestimated
my country has the world’s most complete and largest industrial system, as well as strong production capacity and complete supporting capabilities. It has more than 100 million market players and more than 170 million people with higher education or various professional skills, including 400 million The super-large-scale domestic demand market formed by a population of 1.4 billion people including many middle-income groups is in the rapid development stage of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization, with huge investment demand potential.
Therefore, China’s current economic growth potential must not be underestimated, and the economic growth rate required for China to guarantee and improve people’s livelihood, build a well-off society in an all-round way, and successfully march towards the second century’s great goal.
The current macroeconomic policy should also take the realization of full employment as the basic goal, expand domestic demand and solve the contradiction of insufficient demand as the main starting point, and achieve a high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand as a reasonable range for economic growth.
(Author: Zhang Liqun, the State Council Development Research Center of Macroeconomic Research Fellow, Planning macroeconomic analysis and economic development strategies have long been engaged.)