This "V" is amazing!
Our reporter Xiong Li
In the context of the intensified spread of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic and the worst economic recession since World War II, China's economy recovered rapidly and achieved strong growth. The completion of the main goals and tasks of economic and social development was better than expected, and it has emerged from a V-shaped curve that has attracted worldwide attention.
This highlights China's national governance capabilities and economic development capabilities, and demonstrates the strong resilience and abundant momentum of China's economy.
In 2020, my country's GDP will reach a new level of one hundred billion yuan, and the total economic volume will achieve a historic breakthrough.
Calculated at comparable prices, it increased by 2.3% over the previous year, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth.
In the context of the intensified spread of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic and the worst economic recession since World War II, China's economy recovered rapidly and achieved strong growth. The completion of the main goals and tasks of economic and social development was better than expected, and it has emerged from a V-shaped curve that has attracted worldwide attention.
Achieve three "firsts" under the triple impact
The sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the unexpected shock had a huge impact on economic and social operations: my country's GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020, the first negative growth since the quarterly statistics in 1992.
In the face of the severe impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the deep recession of the world economy, and the comprehensive escalation of containment and suppression in some countries, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core maintains strategic determination, accurately judges the situation, carefully plans and deploys, and takes decisive actions to coordinate the epidemic Prevention and control and economic and social development: In late March 2020, the spread of the local epidemic in my country was basically blocked; in mid-April, the operating rate of enterprises above designated size exceeded 90%.
Through the joint efforts of the whole country, my country has taken the lead in controlling the epidemic, resuming work and production, and taking the lead in realizing positive economic growth.
At the beginning of the new year, Nanchang Federal-Mogul Sealing System Co., Ltd., located in Nanchang Economic and Technological Development Zone, Jiangxi Province, is running at full capacity and stepping up to make orders.
Although affected by the epidemic last year, the company still achieved operating income of 356 million yuan, an increase of 22.34% over the same period last year.
It is understood that the company produces 18 million pieces of various seal products annually, and the products are also exported to international markets such as Europe, the United States, and Japan. It has developed into a leading domestic supplier of automotive engine sealing system products.
Each market entity has witnessed the clear trajectory of China’s economic recovery: in April 2020, the growth rate of industrial value added and exports of industries above designated size turned positive; in May, the service industry production index and industrial profit growth rate turned positive; in June, foreign trade import and export The growth rate and fiscal revenue growth rate turned positive...
The Chinese economy has stepped out of a V-shaped curve: economic growth in the first quarter is -6.8%, a strong rebound in the second quarter to achieve a positive growth of 3.2%, a growth of 4.9% in the third quarter, and a growth rate of 6.5% in the fourth quarter, with a global GDP of 1 trillion Among the major economies above the US dollar, my country is the only country that has achieved positive growth.
Grain output hits a new high, industrial production continues to vigorously, total trade is rising against the trend, modern services are reopened, consumption upgrades are accelerated, domestic investment is steadily rebounding, employment far exceeds the target, price levels remain stable, and residents' income is reaped Growth-whether it is quality or quantity, comprehensive or partial, breadth or depth, China's economy is becoming a leader with heavier weight and higher gold content in the global economy.
The three industries achieved comprehensive development.
The added value of the primary industry was 7775.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0% over the previous year; the added value of the secondary industry was 3,84255 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 5539777 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1%.
The economic strength and overall national strength have increased significantly.
The total grain output has exceeded 1.3 trillion catties for 6 consecutive years, consistently ranking first in the world; the added value of manufacturing is expected to rank first in the world for 11 consecutive years; the total operating mileage of high-speed railways, highway mileage, and the number of 5G terminal connections are all ranking the world the first.
The protection of people's livelihood is stronger.
Even during the epidemic, the basic livelihoods of 1.4 billion people were effectively guaranteed.
In the whole year, 11.86 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, exceeding the target tasks.
The increase in residents' income was better than expected, achieving basic synchronization with economic growth.
Decisive victory was achieved in the fight against poverty.
A major breakthrough was achieved in reform and opening up.
The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port has started smoothly. Foreign trade and the use of foreign capital have both increased. The joint construction of the "Belt and Road" has been steadily progressing. RCEP has successfully signed the world's largest free trade zone.
As global trade and cross-border investment are shrinking sharply, my country’s total import and export of goods in 2020 will hit a record high, an increase of 1.9% over the previous year.
From January to November 2020, the actual use of foreign capital increased by 6.3% year-on-year.
Reflecting the advantages of the "rule of China" system
2.3%!
Not only was China the only major economy in the world that achieved positive growth last year, this growth rate also exceeded the expectations of many international institutions.
Previously, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the OECD had forecasted China's economic growth rate in 2020 at 2%, 1.9% and 1.8% respectively.
What is the "code" for China's economy to achieve a V-shaped rebound in 2020?
"These achievements were made when the new crown pneumonia epidemic is raging around the world, the world economy has fallen into a severe recession, and the external environment has become more complicated and severe. They were hard-won but difficult." Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that this is because The result of the strong leadership and scientific decision-making of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core is the result of the united and united struggle of the people of all ethnic groups across the country, and is a full demonstration of the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.
The Central Economic Work Conference made a high-level overview of the regularity of economic work under severe challenges. These are the "five fundamentals": the authority of the Party Central Committee is the fundamental support for the entire party and the people of all ethnic groups to face difficulties in times of crisis. The people's supremacy is the fundamental prerequisite for making correct choices. The advantage of the system is the fundamental guarantee for the formation of the strength to overcome difficulties. Scientific decision-making and creative response are the fundamental methods to turn crises into opportunities. Technological independence and self-reliance are the fundamental support for the overall development of development.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in 2020, China’s economy has undergone an unprecedented stress test and delivered an answer sheet that is satisfactory to the people, world-renowned, and can be recorded in the annals of history, highlighting China’s national governance capabilities and economy. The development capability shows the strong resilience and abundant momentum of the Chinese economy.
Based on the current estimated annual average exchange rate, my country's GDP in 2020 will reach about 14.7 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world, and its share of the world economy will rise from 16.3% in 2019 to about 17%, a record high; The per capita GDP has exceeded US$10,000 for two consecutive years, and it has consistently ranked among upper-middle-income countries, and the development gap with high-income countries has continued to narrow.
China's development cannot be separated from the world, and China's development will better contribute to the world.
According to the OECD forecast in December 2020, China will contribute more than one-third of global economic growth in 2021.
“In the past year, my country’s economy took the lead in achieving a V-shaped rebound and recovered better than expected. It has won a valuable window of time for the first step in building a new development pattern during the “14th Five-Year Plan”. The initiative in strategic maneuver space and international competition has been established.” said Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council.
Build a solid foundation for continuous recovery
Domestic and foreign countries generally hold optimistic expectations for China's economy in 2021. At the same time, it should be noted that there are many uncertainties in the changes in the epidemic and the external environment, and the foundation for my country's economic recovery is not yet solid.
Mao Zhenhua, co-director of the Institute of Economics of Renmin University of China and chairman of China Chengxin Group, believes that my country’s accumulated ideological, technological, and institutional advantages in epidemic prevention and control should be used to transform the epidemic prevention gap between my country and other countries into an important issue in 2021. The window for staggered economic development, seize the opportunity to do a good job this year and strive for better results.
"Due to the low base in the first quarter of 2020, this year's economic growth may show a trend of high before and low. We need to pay attention to the situation that macro indicators have improved significantly while micro subjects are still facing greater difficulties." Wang Yiming said, maintaining the continuity of macro policies , Stability and sustainability, it is particularly important to grasp the pace and intensity of macro policy adjustments after the economy returns to normal, and to stabilize the expectations of market entities.
Wang Yiming believes that a proactive fiscal policy should maintain a moderate spending intensity on the basis of improving quality and efficiency and enhancing sustainability.
Improve the efficiency of the use of fiscal funds, and improve the institutional tax and fee reduction policies; the phased tax and fee reduction and mitigation policies in response to the epidemic should be adjusted by classification, set a reasonable transition period, and increase support for technological innovation, structural adjustment, and income distribution adjustment .
A prudent monetary policy must be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate. It should not only keep the money supply and the growth rate of social financing scale basically matching the nominal economic growth rate, but also maintain the macro leverage ratio basically stable, and make a stride between promoting economic recovery and preventing risks. Cycle balance.
Stabilizing employment must be placed in a more important position, improving employment policy tools for key industries and key groups, and enhancing the pertinence and effectiveness of policies.
Currently, consumption recovery is still relatively lagging behind.
Wang Yiming believes that it is necessary to stabilize bulk consumption, promote the transformation of consumer goods such as automobiles from purchase management to use management, and promote the consumption of new energy vehicles; strengthen the supervision of the real estate market, reduce the crowding out effect of high housing prices and high leverage in the residential sector on consumption; encourage development New-type consumption promotes the expansion and quality improvement of new-type consumption; intensifies the adjustment of income distribution, improves the social security system, and promotes the formation of institutional arrangements for expanding consumption.
Zhang Liqun believes that my country has achieved world-renowned achievements in 2020, but the losses caused by the impact of the epidemic have not yet been fully compensated.
In 2021, we will continue to do a good job in the "six stability" and "six guarantees", further stabilize the economic recovery, and promote continuous improvement in employment, the development of small, medium and micro enterprises, and government finance.
It is necessary to firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, make greater efforts to solve the lack of demand, and further enhance the ability of macroeconomic policies to adjust countercyclically.
"In 2021, we will continue to give full play to a series of favorable conditions of the Chinese economy. On this basis, by expanding domestic demand, we will speed up the smooth domestic cycle, so that the Chinese economy will form a good momentum of continuous recovery as soon as possible, and become a support for the world. An important source of motivation for the economy to get rid of difficulties and get out of the bottom of the crisis." Zhang Liqun said.