Reporter Bei Mengyuan
Recently, the property market in first-tier cities has been heating up.
"The recognition rate of multiple projects exceeded 1000%", "School district housing skyrocketed 400,000 yuan overnight", "Community owners raised prices in groups"...Similar news continued to spread from Beijing, Shanghai and other cities, and it was self-evident.
Prior to this, the real estate market in first-tier cities has been relatively calm in the face of increasing regulation.
After all, these cities are not only at the "top" of the property market with a customer order price of tens of millions of yuan, but they also face the most stringent policy environment.
However, the changes in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that first-tier cities are returning to lead the rise.
In December 2020, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was significantly higher than that in second and third-tier cities.
At the same time, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in first-tier cities has increased significantly, increasing by 20.5% from the previous month.
Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places set a new high since 2019.
The market gave up restraint, and the regulation and control acted immediately.
On the evening of January 21, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-rural Development and other eight departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the City’s Real Estate Market", which cools down the real estate market from multiple dimensions including purchase restrictions, credit, taxes, and improvement of new house lottery. A series of policy measures such as "Adjustment of VAT Exemption Period" and "Limited Purchase of Married Couples Divorced for 3 Years".
Just two days before Shanghai took control, on January 19, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Letter from the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau on clarifying the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the City’s Real Estate Market". Some issues of the previous regulatory policies have been refined to further block the use of false marriages and false divorces in exchange for the qualifications to purchase houses.
As the weather vane of the property market, first-tier cities have always been considered to have strong signal significance.
Regarding changes in the property market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have successively upgraded their regulation, conveying the policy determination of "housing, not speculation".
Cities that have not yet introduced new policies are expected to be affected to a certain extent. Many analysts believe that if housing prices in these cities continue to rise, they will inevitably face new controls.
In fact, under the situation that real estate financing is facing "three red lines", real estate credit is facing "two red lines", and the Central Economic Work Conference has just put forward the focus on "solving outstanding housing problems in big cities", first-tier cities are either in funding or Policies and other aspects do not have the logic to support the rapid rise in housing prices.
Judging from this round of the housing market in first-tier cities, the driving force for rising housing prices in various cities is not the same.
However, at the macro level, they all have a relatively loose credit environment. Housing demand such as "rigid demand" and "reform" has been suppressed to varying degrees before; at the micro level, school district housing speculation and online celebrity real estate "news" have all been suppressed. Played an important driving role.
The combination of various factors has increased the anxiety and panic of the market.
Judging from the current regulation and control, strengthening the review of housing qualifications, strengthening differentiated credit policies, and adjusting the taxes and fees of second-hand housing transactions are all policy tools that can be effective in the short term.
The industry generally believes that the new regulation will effectively curb market overheating.
Housing does not fry.
It should be noted that strengthening regulation and restraining investment speculative demand is aimed more at "no speculation"; the effective solution to the housing problem in big cities ultimately depends on "housing" and allowing residents to "have housing."
While this round of first-tier city market "tail-up" news continues, some news that will help solve the problem of housing in big cities are also constantly spreading.
In Shanghai, intensifying the development of rental housing, increasing the effective supply of rental housing, stabilizing the supply of affordable housing, and meeting the residential needs of citizens through multiple channels have become the focus of policy concerns.
In Beijing, this year’s government work report proposes to promote the high-quality and balanced development of compulsory education, deepen the reform of regional grouping of schools and the school district system, and add 20,000 primary and secondary school degrees... Compared with the short-term regulation, these efforts will "Other measures may have slower results, but they are the source of market tension and anxiety, and their effects are worth looking forward to.