Mo Kaiwei Researcher, China Local Finance Research Institute
Mo Kaiwei Researcher, China Local Finance Research Institute
The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 18th that China's GDP will be 101,5986 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year at comparable prices. At the same time, industrial and agricultural production has maintained a certain growth trend, the social employment situation is stable, and the income of urban and rural residents has increased.
In short, China's economy in 2020 will be better than expected, and a satisfactory answer has been given to the Chinese people.
This information eliminates the widespread concern of the whole society about the existence of China's economy in 2020.
Moreover, China's economy is showing positive growth, which also shows great socio-economic significance.
For the world, severely affected by the epidemic, it can still stop the economic downturn and maintain economic growth. This shows the incomparable advantages of the Chinese system and the ability of the Party Central Committee to control the overall economic situation.
China's economy has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, which means that my country's economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and overall national strength have jumped to a new level.
It is of very important and symbolic significance for building a well-off society in an all-round way and starting a new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.
However, even though my country’s economy has gone through a difficult 2020 and achieved better-than-expected results, laying a solid foundation for my country to build a new development pattern, we must not be complacent about it, let alone be complacent, because our country is still In the initial stage of socialism, the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development is still prominent, the development gap between urban and rural areas is still relatively large, and the innovation ability still does not meet the requirements of high-quality development.
At the same time, there is a counterattack against the epidemic in China and even the world, and future economic development is still full of uncertainties.
Especially as far as China is concerned, there are still many bottlenecks that urgently need to be broken through for stable economic growth.
Judging from the current consumption prosperity of residents across the country, there has been an overall rebound, but the gap in consumption between urban and rural residents is large, which is generally detrimental to the establishment of an internal circular economy.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced this time that the total retail sales of consumer goods in my country for the year were 391981 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% from the previous year. This is a relatively reasonable situation. However, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas is 3,39119 trillion yuan, accounting for 86.51% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in rural areas. 5,286.2 billion yuan, accounting for only 13.49%, the reality of social consumption reflected in the retail sales of such social consumer goods is extremely unreasonable.
At present, due to factors such as working and migrating to urban areas, the rural population has been greatly reduced, but at least it will not be less than the urban population. This is evident in the low consumption capacity of rural commodities.
If this social consumer goods retail sales pattern does not change, it will be difficult to stimulate new domestic demand.
From the perspective of current residents' income, there has been an overall increase, but the income gap between urban and rural residents is huge, which is not good for improving the overall consumption capacity of Chinese residents.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced this time that the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents is 32,189 yuan, which is basically in line with economic growth.
However, the per capita disposable income of urban residents is as high as 43,834 yuan, while the per capita disposable income of rural residents is only 17,131 yuan.
The per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents was 2.56, a decrease of 0.08 from the previous year.
In other words, from the data point of view, the income gap between urban and rural residents is nearly three times, and the reduction is too small.
If this income gap does not change as soon as possible, and rural residents want to consume but cannot afford to consume, it will inevitably hinder the realization of the country's entire domestic demand plan.
Judging from the current investment situation, national fixed asset investment has steadily rebounded, but the overall investment structure has not been fundamentally optimized, and the effectiveness of economic growth is insufficient.
This time, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) for the whole year was 51,907.07 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% over the previous year.
Except for high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries, which increased by 11.5% and 9.1%, respectively, infrastructure investment grew by only 0.9%, manufacturing investment fell by 2.2%, and real estate development investment grew by as much as 7.0%.
This shows that despite the current economic downturn and the serious shortage of various social infrastructure investments, real estate investment has maintained rapid growth.
Obviously, this kind of investment structure is not conducive to the sustained and stable growth of China's economy in the future. If a large amount of social funds are still gathered in real estate, it will not only blow up the real estate bubble, but also not conducive to the optimization of China's economic structure and the improvement of the overall quality of economic growth.
Therefore, in this year or for a longer time in the future, if the Chinese economy is to get out of the trough, return to the normal growth zone as soon as possible, and successfully realize the economic internal and external cycle pattern, the first task is to find ways to improve the income of farmers.
Take necessary measures to support the development of rural industries, appropriately increase the prices of agricultural products, and substantially increase the income of rural residents, laying a solid foundation for stimulating the vitality of domestic demand.
At the same time, in order to truly get rid of the Chinese economy from the control of real estate, more stringent control measures should be taken in real estate, especially to prevent bank credit funds from flowing into the real estate field through various hidden channels.
Do a good job in the supervision of bank real estate loan concentration, guide bank credit funds and social credit funds to accelerate the flow to the real economy, to the areas that can best promote the high-quality growth of China's economy, and accumulate momentum for the leapfrog development of China's economy.