On Friday, January 22, trading on the Moscow Exchange was accompanied by a weakening of the Russian currency.
In the middle of the day, the dollar rate rose by more than 1.6% and for the first time since January 5, it reached 75.06 rubles.
At the same time, the euro rate grew by 1.7% - up to 91.34 rubles.
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on January 23 was set at 74.36 rubles per dollar and 90.41 rubles per euro.
According to experts, a sharp decline in oil prices put pressure on the Russian currency.
So, at the auction on Friday, the cost of raw materials of the Brent benchmark on the ICE exchange in London fell by almost 2.9% - to $ 54.49 per barrel.
Investors reacted negatively to the unexpected increase in the incidence of coronavirus in China.
This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by an analyst at Freedom Finance, Valery Yemelyanov.
“The day before, the first case of COVID-19 transmission in two months was registered in densely populated Shanghai.
The PRC authorities are urging citizens to refuse to travel to celebrate the New Year on the lunar calendar.
Traditionally, this period of time is one of the busiest in terms of flights.
If a new lockdown is introduced, it will negatively affect the fuel market.
Such fears led to a drop in oil prices, ”explained Yemelyanov.
In addition, a worsening global pandemic could slow the pace of global economic recovery.
In such conditions, investors begin to withdraw money from risky currencies, which include the ruble.
This was told to RT by the investment strategist "BCS World of Investments" Alexander Bakhtin.
“There has been no positive news on the markets for a long time.
Therefore, one of the key barriers for buyers of risky assets is the aggravation of the viral problem.
This is not only about new foci of COVID-19 in China, but also about anti-mortality records in Europe, and the emergence of new strains of coronavirus, ”Bakhtin emphasized.
© REUTERS / Thomas Peter
To a certain extent, the observed growth in the exchange rates of the dollar and the euro against the ruble can be associated with geopolitical factors.
This opinion is shared by the head of the information and analytical center "Alpari" Alexandra Razuvaev.
“Investors fear that no reset in relations between Russia and the United States will take place under Biden, as in the case of Obama.
Against this background, market participants do not exclude an increase in sanctions risks against Moscow, "the expert explained.
However, experts do not yet expect such a development of events in the near future.
Moreover, according to Alexander Bakhtin, in recent years the ruble has become less susceptible to news of possible anti-Russian restrictions.
“Over the past few years, our market has developed a certain resistance to sanctions rhetoric and learned to distinguish between real and potential threats.
As long as the declarative statements of the Western establishment do not begin to become "overgrown" with specifics, the influence of the sanctions factor remains restrained, "the analyst explained.
According to him, the preparation of Russian enterprises for the tax period is currently supporting the national currency.
At this time, exporting companies traditionally sell foreign currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.
According to Bakhtin, by the end of winter the dollar exchange rate will remain in the corridor of 72-76.5 rubles, and the euro exchange rate - near 88-92.5 rubles.
At the same time, Valery Yemelyanov in his estimates predicts a narrower range of fluctuations by the beginning of spring - 72-73 rubles per dollar and 88-89 rubles per euro.
In the future, according to Alexander Razuvaev, the monetary policy of the US FRS could play in favor of the ruble.
So, since March 2020, the Federal Reserve has been printing dollars in unlimited quantities and pumping up the country's financial system with money by purchasing government bonds.
The increase in the money supply in the economy should help the United States to pick up GDP growth rates after last year's decline.
At the same time, the actions of the American regulator lead to a gradual weakening of the dollar on the international market.
“The Fed's money pumping leads to asset inflation.
Prices for all commodities are rising, including oil.
In these conditions, we expect that by the end of 2021 oil quotations will be able to recover to the range of $ 60-70 per barrel, and the dollar rate will return to the level of 65-67 rubles, ”Razuvaev concluded.