Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 20. On January 20, the People’s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the

loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on January 20

,

2021 is: 1-year LPR is 3.85% ( Last time it was 3.85%), and the LPR over 5 years was 4.65% (last time it was 4.65%).

So far, LPR's quotation has remained unchanged for nine consecutive months, in line with market expectations.

In addition, the central bank launched a large-scale investment that day and conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 280 billion yuan.

New latitude and longitude in the data map

　　In fact, the market had previously expected the LPR to remain unchanged in January.

Since January, the central bank's reverse repurchase and mid-term lending facility (MLF) operating interest rates have remained unchanged, signaling that LPR is still "holding on".

　　Recently, the central bank’s reverse repurchase volume has been reduced from 10 billion to 5 billion, and then reduced to 2 billion. Analysts believe that the central bank’s easing operation has gradually withdrawn from the signal.

Judging from last week, the central bank has adopted a "small number of times" approach to accumulatively reverse repurchases of 16 billion yuan, with a net return of 39 billion yuan; at the same time, it has carried out a 500 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation, and has dealt with the MLF due in January. /TMLF will carry out a unified sequel, compared with the 540.5 billion sequel due that month.

　　Yesterday (19th), the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repo operation of 80 billion yuan, with a net investment of 75 billion yuan.

On that day, the inter-bank funding level turned to convergence, and the

overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) rose to 2.236%, the highest level since November 16 last year.

The remaining Shibor short-end varieties are all online.

　　Today (20), the central bank announced that the amount of reverse repurchase was raised to 280 billion yuan in one fell swoop. The announcement showed that in order to hedge against the impact of tax peaks and other factors, and to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the central bank launched an interest rate bidding method for 2,800 yuan. The 7-day reverse repurchase operation of RMB 100 million, and the winning interest rate of 2.20%.

　　"It can be seen that overnight interest rates quickly rebounded above the central bank's 7-day reverse repo rate. As the Spring Festival approaches, seasonal liquidity demand pressures increase, the central bank will definitely maintain liquidity stability through reverse repo and MLF operations. In the short term, the central bank mainly maintains liquidity stability through operations such as reverse repurchase," said Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, in an interview with a reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei.

　　Hue, chief economist of Founder Securities, said that from the recent central bank statement, reverse repurchase operations may maintain a high frequency state, mainly to strengthen the position of reverse repurchase interest rate as the market interest rate center, and stably release the signal of market interest rate center.

　　Hue believes that due to the relatively sufficient liquidity investment before the New Year's Eve, after entering January, some liquidity will be recovered through moderate and cameras to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, small-amount reverse repurchase and net withdrawal, indicating a moderate policy attitude .

"

　　The official has repeatedly reiterated that the macro policy "does not make a sharp turn."

According to industry analysis, the market does not need to worry about excessive liquidity tightening before the Spring Festival, and the recent continuous open market operations also reflect the central bank's attitude of constant attention to market liquidity and precise placement, which is conducive to further stabilizing market expectations.

　　According to Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, the financial system will be guided to transfer 1.5 trillion yuan to the real economy in 2020.

Among them, the LPR reform led to a decline in loan interest rates and a profit of 590 billion yuan.

The one-year LPR has fallen by 30 basis points accumulatively, driving the full-year loan interest rate in 2020 to drop by 0.5 percentage point compared with 2019, giving a profit of 560 billion yuan. At the end of August, the conversion of stock loan pricing benchmarks was successfully completed. The interest rate was directly reduced during the conversion and the interest rate fell after repricing The profit is about 28 billion yuan.

　　The data shows that since the LPR reform, the 1-year LPR has been lowered 5 times for a total of 46 bps, and the varieties with a period of 5 years or more have been lowered 3 times for a total of 20 bps.

Among them, the decline in LPR quotations in April was the largest drop since the LPR reform, with a one-year decline of 20BP to 3.85%, and a decline of 10BP to 4.65% over a five-year period.

　　What is the future LPR downgrade space?

　　Sun Guofeng said that in 2021, the monetary policy should be stable and not make a sharp turn. The prudent monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, grasp the timeliness and maintain the sustainability of the normal monetary policy space.

　　In terms of transmission, deepen the reform of interest rate and exchange rate marketization, unblock the monetary policy transmission channels, improve the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, deepen the LPR reform, consolidate the results of the decline in the real interest rate of loans, promote the stability and decline of comprehensive financing costs, and enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate , Strengthen the macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows, stabilize market expectations, guide enterprises and financial institutions to establish a "risk-neutral" concept, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

　　"At present, the economy has returned to potential output levels, the strong demand for corporate credit, and the reasonable growth of money and credit indicate that the current interest rate level is appropriate." Sun Guofeng emphasized.

　　Since the LPR reform in 2019, the reduction of MLF interest rates has been the main force to depress LPR. Everbright pointed out that the driving force for LPR interest rate cuts in the future will come from increased pressure drop, which mainly depends on the cost of funds of each quotation bank and market supply and demand. , Risk premium and other factors.

　　Wen Bin pointed out to a reporter from Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the central bank’s current regulatory goals, whether it is short-term policy interest rates, reverse repurchase, and MLF, remain unchanged, and then let market interest rates fluctuate around the policy interest rate.

As MLF’s policy interest rate remains unchanged, LPR is expected to remain stable. It does not rule out that commercial banks will benefit the real economy. The actual loan interest rate level may also decline to better reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)