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The recent debate, mainly in politics, about further restrictive measures for the entire German economy is to be perceived with great concern.
A major economic lockdown would certainly cause lasting macroeconomic and social damage.
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And not only in Germany, but also through the closely interwoven value chains, at least in the European Union.
The German and European economies would slide into a deeper recession and further job and prosperity losses as well as social upheavals would be programmed.
The corona crisis can then mutate into a financial and banking crisis.
Unlike in the years 2008/2009, the badly battered real economy is now the trigger.
Financial and real economic effects follow one another and a short-term macroeconomic recovery is made significantly more difficult.
Shutting down the economy - putting it into an "artificial coma" - would lead to a longer lasting economic depression.
It is not foreseeable, however, whether such an economic lockdown will actually be effective and whether it will reduce the incidence values.
There are at best contradicting data and evaluations.
A large number of companies are already implementing hygiene and home office concepts in an exemplary manner and go beyond what is legally required in the implementation of pandemic regulations.
Oliver Hermes is CEO of the mechanical engineering group Wilo
Source: pa / dpa / Bernd Thissen
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The manufacturing companies have implemented very high hygiene standards with regard to their production and logistics processes and, for example, straightened shifts.
In line with the digital age, you have made high investments in technologies to maintain the minimum distances and in software for tracing infection chains.
The efforts and investments to guarantee the greatest possible health protection for employees as well as for customers and suppliers can also be found in sectors of the economy that have already been shut down.
Postulating the complete lockdown of the economy out of a sense of solidarity and justice with these disadvantaged branches of the economy leads to a dead end.
Because every single branch of the economy will need wealthy customers in the future.
It is the task of the political mandate holders to make a difficult and weighted trade-off between the protection of health and the economic and social needs as well as the justified demands of the population.
A way out of this political, ethical and economic dilemma should, however, be a consistent and accelerated vaccination strategy:
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In the meantime, the virus has mutated in such a shocking way that it is more infectious.
This now requires a “mutation” of the vaccination strategy.
The vaccination strategy must therefore be revised, improved and, above all, implemented at a much faster pace.
It takes a national show of strength to dramatically increase vaccine production.
For this, a close alliance within the German pharmaceutical industry is necessary.
The German economy finally succeeded in developing the first vaccine to be approved by the US and European health authorities.
This is a great success, which should give courage in a further step to once again demonstrate the excellent performance of the German pharmaceutical industry and to do everything economically, legally, politically and technologically necessary so that vaccination can be carried out more quickly.
Ultimately, the dilemma described could be resolved in this way together with the social partners.
The cost of a smarter vaccination strategy is certainly homeopathic compared to the cost and harm of a complete economic lockdown.
Oliver Hermes is chairman of the board and CEO of the Wilo Group, chairman of the board of trustees of the Wilo Foundation, chairman of the Eastern Committee of German Business and a member of the board of trustees of the Family Business Foundation.