Central Bank: In 2020, important phased results have been achieved in the battle to prevent and resolve financial risks. P2P platforms have all been "cleared".


　　Monetary policy will be stable in 2021 and there will be no sharp turn.

　　What is the tone of monetary policy this year?

Will the RMB exchange rate continue to appreciate?

What is the price trend throughout the year?

What new measures will the real estate financial policy have?

Yesterday afternoon, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the financial statistics for 2020. Central Bank Vice Governor Chen Yulu and heads of relevant departments of the Central Bank answered these questions of concern to everyone at the press conference.

It was also revealed at the meeting that in 2020, important phased results have been achieved in the battle to prevent and resolve financial risks, and all P2P platforms have been "cleared".

　　2020

　　Real estate loan growth rate for 8 years

　　Lower than various loans for the first time

　　When answering questions about real estate financial policies, Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Markets Department of the Central Bank, said that in recent years, the People's Bank of China has adhered to the positioning of "no speculation in housing and housing", strengthened real estate financial management, and focused on three areas.

　　First, the financial regulation of real estate has been strengthened.

Leading the financial sector to strengthen the statistical monitoring of various types of funds flowing into real estate, and guiding the reasonable growth of real estate loans by commercial banks. Last year, the growth rate of real estate loans was lower than the growth rate of various loans for the first time in 8 years. The proportion of new real estate loans in various loans increased from 2016 Of 44.8% of the country’s population dropped to 28% last year.

　　Second, implement the prudent management system of real estate finance.

　　Third, improve housing leasing financial policies.

In accordance with the direction of "simultaneous hire and purchase", speed up the study of financial policies to support the housing leasing market.

Public opinions will be solicited in the near future.

　　He said that in the next step, the central bank will adhere to the positioning of “no speculation in housing and housing”, simultaneous rent and purchase, implement policies in different cities, maintain the continuity, consistency, and stability of real estate financial policies, and steadily implement the real estate financial prudential management system.

　　LPR reform yields 590 billion yuan

　　The current interest rate level is appropriate

　　A reporter from Beijing Youth Daily learned that the financial system will give 1.5 trillion yuan to the real economy in 2020.

At the press conference, Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, revealed the specific situation of the profit distribution.

　　The first is to deepen the quoted interest rate of the loan market, and the LPR reform has led to a decline in loan interest rates and a profit of 590 billion yuan.

　　Second, re-loan and rediscount support the issuance of preferential interest rate loans with a profit of 46 billion yuan.

　　Third, the downward bond interest rate has given over RMB 120 billion to bond issuers. The interest rates of newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and corporate credit bonds in 2020 are 0.47 percentage points lower than in 2019.

　　Fourth, the two direct tools make a profit of 380 billion yuan.

Last year, the inclusive small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool provided 358 billion yuan in profits for enterprises by reducing corporate yields and bridge costs. The inclusive small and micro credit loan support program saved 24 billion yuan in guarantee costs for enterprises.

　　In addition, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has guided banks to transfer profits by urging banks to reduce fees, supporting corporate restructuring and debt-to-equity swaps. This part of the transfer is expected to be about 420 billion yuan.

　　The total of the above-mentioned data, the financial system's goal of reasonable profit distribution of 1.5 trillion yuan to the real economy, has been successfully achieved.

　　In addition, Sun Guofeng said that since 2020, the People's Bank of China has reduced the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises through reforms and achieved obvious results.

In December 2020, the corporate loan interest rate was 4.61%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points from the end of 2019, which was at the lowest level in history, and the decline was greater than that of LPR over the same period.

In addition, the decline in loan interest rates has led banks to reduce the cost of liabilities and promoted the decline in deposit interest rates.

The weighted average interest rates of three-year and five-year deposits in December 2020 were 3.67% and 3.9%, respectively, down 5 basis points and 16 basis points from the end of the previous year. The economy has returned to potential output levels and corporate credit demand is strong. , The reasonable growth of money and credit indicates that the current interest rate level is appropriate.

　　Talking about the deposit reserve ratio, Sun Guofeng pointed out that the People's Bank of China will lower the deposit reserve ratio three times in 2020, releasing a total of about 1.75 trillion yuan in long-term funds.

Whether compared with other developing countries or compared with my country's historical reserve ratio, the current level of deposit reserve ratio is not high.

　　2021

　　The price level is likely to maintain a moderate rise

　　CPI increase is expected to rise first and then stabilize

　　When answering questions about CPI, the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank Chen Yulu said that in the next step, as my country's economy continues to recover steadily, domestic consumer demand is gradually recovered and released, and the core CPI is expected to continue to rise in the future.

In general, my country’s price level is likely to maintain a moderate increase in 2021. Affected by the base of the same period last year, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI for the whole year will increase first and then stabilize.

　　Chen Yulu pointed out that price stability is the core policy goal of monetary policy. This week, the National Bureau of Statistics has released CPI data. In December 2020, the CPI has changed from a year-on-year decrease to a year-on-year increase. The annual CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year. The National Bureau of Statistics immediately Interpreted this indicator.

　　"What we need to pay attention to is that, driven by the increase in pork prices and refined oil prices, the CPI will increase by a relatively large month-on-month at the end of 2020. In the medium and long term, there will be another bumper harvest in grain production in 2020, and the production of pigs has basically returned to normal years. Therefore, we believe that the possibility of the CPI continuing to rise sharply from the previous month is relatively small." Chen Yulu said.

　　He said that we should pay attention to changes in core CPI.

As the income growth rate of residents is still in the process of recovery, the repeated epidemics in some areas and service consumption are still subject to certain restrictions, the core CPI excluding food and energy is still at a low level.

　　RMB exchange rate

　　Will neither continue to appreciate nor depreciate

　　How to see the trend of RMB exchange rate?

In the second half of last year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated significantly. Are you worried that this trend will have some negative effects on exporters and the real economy?

　　In response to reporters’ questions, Sun Guofeng said that there are many uncertainties in the current epidemic and the external environment, the international economic and financial situation is still complex and severe, and the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid. Monetary policy must handle the recovery of the economy while supporting the real economy. It is related to risk prevention. Therefore, the monetary policy in 2021 must be stable and not make a sharp turn. A prudent monetary policy must be flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate, grasp the timeliness and maintain the sustainability of the normal monetary policy space.

　　Since the end of May last year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has experienced a wave of strong appreciation.

Sun Guofeng said that the future trend of the RMB exchange rate depends on factors such as domestic and foreign economic situations, international balance of payments and changes in the international foreign exchange market.

In general, the exchange rate of the RMB will rise and fall, and two-way floating will become the norm. It will neither continue to appreciate nor depreciate, and will remain basically stable at a reasonable and equilibrium level.

　　Sun Guofeng pointed out that at the end of 2020, the People’s Bank of China’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar appreciated by 6.9% compared to the end of the previous year, and the volatility did not exceed historical levels, such as the volatility in 2007 and 2008; the RMB appreciated by about 4% against a basket of currencies. The fluctuation range of is also in the middle reaches.

The average exchange rate of the People's Bank of China to the US dollar for the whole year was 6.90 yuan, which was the same as the 2019 average.

Generally speaking, the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable at a reasonable and equilibrium level, which is consistent with my country's foreign trade and economic fundamentals.

Compared with other major currencies, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is also relatively moderate.

Under the new system of a higher level of open economy, the RMB exchange rate is at a reasonable equilibrium level, and the positive and negative effects of exchange rate changes on exports and the economy basically offset each other.

　　Text/Reporter Cheng Jie Li Yan

　　Photo courtesy/Visual China

　　related news

　　500 billion yuan!

The central bank brought out the first bowl of "spicy powder" in the new year

　　In 2021, the first bowl of "Malla Fen (MLF)" is here!

Yesterday morning, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement stating that in order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China launched a 500 billion yuan mid-term loan facility (MLF) operation and a 2 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 15, 2021.

The MLF interest rate remains unchanged at 2.95%, and the reverse repo rate remains unchanged at 2.2%.

　　After conducting MLF operations twice in November last year, the central bank continued to implement large-scale MLF operations last month.

Analysts believe that after the large-scale MLF operation before New Year's Eve, market liquidity is reasonably abundant, and medium and long-term interest rates have dropped significantly.

At the same time, the large-scale investment of fiscal deposits before the end of the year has kept the margin of funds loose since the beginning of this month.

　　It is worth noting that the interest rate change of MLF is regarded as the indicator of LPR.

Since September 2019, the two have been keeping synchronized adjustments.

Due to the continued stability of MLF interest rates, many market participants believe that there is a high probability that the LPR quotations that will be released this month will remain "on hold."

Experts also generally believe that the central bank will not tighten monetary policy in the near future.

　　Text/Reporter Cheng Jie

　　Two types of deposit business are not allowed through non-self-operated platforms

　　After major Internet platforms took the initiative to remove bank deposit products, the official regulatory documents on Internet deposits were finally released.

On January 15, the General Office of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the General Office of the People’s Bank of China issued the "Notice on Regulating Commercial Banks to Carry out Personal Deposit Business via the Internet", requiring commercial banks to conduct deposit business via the Internet in compliance with laws and regulations, and not to resort to Internet or other means to violate Or circumvent regulatory requirements; commercial banks are not allowed to carry out fixed deposits and fixed-activity deposits through non-self-operated online platforms.

　　The person in charge of the relevant department stated that in recent years, in order to adapt to the development trend of Internet finance, commercial banks have successively sold personal deposit products through the Internet, and carried out useful explorations in broadening the channels for banks to acquire customers and improving service efficiency.

However, in the development process, some hidden risks have also been exposed, such as irregular product management and insufficient consumer protection.

　　The "Notice" stipulates that commercial banks shall not conduct fixed deposit and fixed-activation deposit services through non-self-operated online platforms, including but not limited to non-self-operated online platforms that provide marketing promotion, product display, information transmission, purchase entrance, and interest subsidies And other services.

　　The person in charge also pointed out that commercial banks cooperate with non-self-operated online platforms to provide convenience for the public to purchase services and consume by opening Type II accounts. This part of the business will not be affected and can be continued.