Ample supply and seasonal price increases

Fruit prices will not be "high fever and hard to retreat" this year

　　Our reporter Huang Junyi

　　At the end of the year, the national fruit prices continued to rise.

Many people will ask whether this year's fruit prices will continue to be "high fever" like in 2019?

In this regard, the reporter interviewed industry experts.

　　"Fruit prices nationwide have risen for three consecutive months, with a cumulative increase of 14.6%. The change is obvious." said Zhao Junye, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

　　In December 2020, the average wholesale price of the six types of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.04 yuan per kilo, an increase of 7.9% month-on-month and an increase of 17.5% year-on-year.

From a month-on-month comparison, watermelon, pear, Kyoho grape, and Fuji apple rose 49.4%, 6.9%, 3.1%, and 1.5% respectively.

From a year-on-year perspective, Yali, watermelon, pineapple, and Kyoho grapes rose by 58.1%, 57.9%, 26.1%, and 1.1% respectively.

　　Why do fruit prices continue to rise?

Zhao Junye said that, on the one hand, it is driven by holiday consumption. During the period from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival every year, fruit prices will rise seasonally.

On the other hand, it was because some fruit varieties had reduced production due to disasters, such as Yali, which rose 58.1% year-on-year.

　　According to reports, affected by freezing damage and waterlogging, the main pear producing areas such as the Bohai Bay Rim and the Northwest will see varying degrees of reduction in production in 2020.

Hebei, Gansu, Shanxi, and Shandong have reduced production by about 50%, 50%, 40%, and 20%, respectively. Liaoning has reduced production by 10% to 20%, and Shaanxi has reduced production by about 10%.

It is estimated that these six provinces will reduce production by about 2.87 million tons.

　　"This year's fruit prices will hardly show a'high fever' market." In response to the concerns of some consumers, Zhao Junye said that from the perspective of the main fruits consumed, the overall apple production in 2020 will be high, and the production of citrus will continue to increase.

At the same time, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has a certain impact on the expansion of fruit consumption.

"From the perspective of supply and demand, it is difficult for fruit prices to rise sharply this year."

　　Statistics show that from 2016 to 2019, the national orchard planting area increased from 10,917 thousand hectares to 12,277 thousand hectares, and the fruit production increased from 244 million tons to 274 million tons.

In 2020, the overall fruit production in various regions will be high. The total output is expected to increase year-on-year, and the winter and spring market will have sufficient supply.

　　Take apples as an example. In the new season of 2020, except for Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu, which have slightly reduced production due to freezing and hailstorms, the production in major producing areas such as Shandong and Henan is stable, and the country's overall production is high.

In 2020, the national apple output is expected to be more than 41 million tons. Approximately 11 million tons of apples will be stored in the cold storage in the new season, an increase of 8% year-on-year, which is at a historical high.

Although the price of Apple has rebounded slightly recently, this is related to the slowdown in the Spring Festival stocking period and cold storage shipments.

Currently, Apple futures prices continue to fall, indicating that the market is abundant.

　　Zhao Junye said that the overall pattern of the national fruit market where the supply is slightly larger than the demand has not changed, but due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year and the long pre-holiday stocking period, there is still room for fruit prices to rise.

　　In terms of the supply of winter fruit varieties, the production of seasonal citrus is large and there are many varieties. In the later period, sugar oranges, navel oranges and other varieties will be launched in large quantities, and prices are expected to stabilize and decline. The total inventory of apples in the new season is about 11 million tons, which is at a historical high. The delivery speed is slower than the same period of last year, but the customers are eager to stock up before the holiday, and the price is expected to rise steadily; the supply of pears is reduced due to the disaster, but the large supply of apples and oranges has a consumption substitution effect on pears, which can inhibit The price of pears has risen and the price increase is expected to narrow.

On the whole, fruit prices will continue to rise seasonally before the Spring Festival, but a substantial increase is unlikely.