What happened to the liquor stocks that plunged twice a week and "only rose but not fell"?
Following the sharp drop in the liquor sector on January 11, there was another sharp drop on January 14, with dark green across the board, and the sector index plummeted by more than 5%.
As of the close of yesterday afternoon, Jiuguijiu (000799.SZ) has dropped its limit, and liquor concept stocks Yuyuan Stock and Juli Rigging have also dropped its limit.
Kouzijiao plummeted 8.80%, while Yingjia Gongjiu, Huangtai Liquor, Laobaigan Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor, and Guyue Longshan all fell more than 7%.
In addition, the leading liquor stock Wuliangye (000858.SZ) fell 5.22%, and its share price fell below the 300 yuan mark to close at 289.40 yuan.
"Stock King" Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) also fell, but its performance remained strong, only slightly down 1.39%, to close at 2,134 yuan, and its total market value was still as high as 2.68 trillion yuan, equivalent to two industrial and commercial banks.
Is it a fake throw or a real "dispersion"?
The drunkard liquor, which has risen astonishingly recently, has a rare limit yesterday.
At about 10:30 yesterday morning, Jiuguijiu once broke the limit, but unfortunately it was blocked again after a few minutes. As of the close, more than 30,000 orders were still on the limit.
Jiuguijiu just hit a record high of 232 yuan on the 13th.
In addition, the liquor concept stock Yuyuan (600655.SH) had a lower limit yesterday, and ST Will (600702.SH) also lowered its limit.
On December 31, 2020, Yuyuan acquired a 70% stake in Tuopai Shede Group for 4.53 billion yuan, and Fosun’s head Guo Guangchang also became the actual controller of ST Shede.
Liquor concept stock Juli Rigging also dropped its limit, holding a 22.15% stake in Liu Ling Drunk.
For investors who are accustomed to "only rising but not falling" liquor stocks, they are really surprised. Is this a fake or a real "split"?
Yesterday, most third- and fourth-tier liquor stocks were also on the verge of falling limit, but the first- and second-tier high-end liquor fell relatively less.
As one of the important indicators of the market, liquor stocks have risen astonishingly in recent years after being grouped by various institutions. They have experienced rounds of surges, and they have even been dubbed "drinking crazy" by investors.
The liquor index rose by 82.53% in 2019, and the increase in 2020 is as high as 137.47%.
Every brief callback during this period was a good buying opportunity, and then the stock price hit a new high.
However, after entering 2021, the strong rally of liquor stocks has ceased to continue. In the rumors of "holding groups and dispersing groups", the trend has been severely divided.
Within this week alone, there have been two plunges in the market.
In response to the issue of "grouping and dispersing", CITIC Securities Research reported that the concentration of incremental funds at the beginning of the year drove the market's impulsive upward movement and increased structural differentiation. As the urgency of opening positions declined, the pace of market growth and differentiation would slow down. Return to the slow-moving rise, while the speculative grouping of second- and third-tier varieties may continue to collapse.
From the red star capital bureau's recent resumption of the liquor sector, it was the second and third-tier liquor varieties that led the decline, such as Jinhui Liquor, Jinfeng Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, and Shunxin Agriculture (under Niulanshan Erguotou), which fell sharply.
The second-leading Yanghe shares (002304.SZ) and Gujing Gongjiu have also fallen sharply. Recently, they have continued to fall. Yanghe shares crossed the 200 yuan mark yesterday, and the market value has evaporated about 80 billion yuan in just five days.
Supervisors repeatedly named liquor stocks
In fact, there has been a "big event" in the liquor industry recently, but it has been ignored by many investors, that is, the supervisory authority has continuously issued supervision letters, attention letters, and inquiry letters to liquor stocks, which successively involve Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Jiugui. Liquor and other liquor listed companies.
At the time when the performance growth rate of liquor stocks and the stock price show a large gap, the supervisory authorities have been accused of even making names.
The most recent letter was sent on the evening of January 13th. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an inquiry letter to Jinshiyuan (603369.SH). The main reason was that the company had violated regulations to disclose the company’s major operating information, and declared at will that the company’s revenue will exceed 10 billion in 2025. This kind of "boasting the sea" will undoubtedly have a major impact on the company's future operations.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange believes that Jinshiyuan failed to provide sufficient and objective factual and forecast basis when disclosing the above predictive information.
According to data from Jinshiyuan's 2020 third quarter report, during the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 4.193 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 1.96%; net profit was 1.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.52%.
From the perspective of the growth rate of revenue and net profit, the performance is mediocre, which can be described as standing still. This is also related to the impact of the epidemic last year.
China's food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the recent consecutive names of many liquor companies are the core reason for the recent decline in the liquor sector.
The entire Chinese liquor stocks have a large bubble, and the supervisory authorities have repeatedly issued very severe warnings, which are a blow and impact on the entire liquor stocks.
In the future, except for a few high-quality leading liquor stocks, most liquor stocks will enter the callback time node.
Recently, some second- and third-tier liquor stocks that have followed the trend have fallen sharply, and we still need to be alert to the risk of continued decline.
Another private equity person believes that the phenomenon of institutional grouping in leading stocks of high-quality liquor is reasonable, but "all things have a degree, but too much."
At present, the price-performance ratio of high-quality liquor stocks has dropped to the lowest level. With the overall valuation at the highest level in history, it is understandable that the liquor sector has "stripped and withdrawn".
However, Guotai Junan Securities believes that it is difficult to disintegrate the leader group for the time being, and the funds are concentrated to chase the "certain premium". At least before the Spring Festival, it is difficult to switch the style of the A-share market.
Yesterday, in addition to baotuan's liquor stocks in A-shares, aerospace and military industry stocks, which are also grouped by institutions, also became the hardest hit area. The military industry index plummeted 6.05%, and aerospace electronics, AVIC Xifei, aviation control and aviation power and other stocks All reached the limit.
Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News reporter Li Weiming