*** SDF is a knowledge sharing platform created by SBS for the purpose of social contribution. We select topics that our society needs to look deeply and find insights from various angles *** |
During the Corona 19 last year, one of the issues that SDF team was most interested in was economic issues and job changes.
So, at SDF2020, Bain & Company's partners asked'Conspicuous changes in companies after Corona' through a speaker session.
Since the end of last October, the World Economic Forum, WEF, market research institute Gartner, and MIT have published related reports.
In this article, I'll cite some of them to cover the future of jobs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) posted a global economic growth rate of -4.4% last year.
The uncertainty in the labor market is increasing due to COVID-19.
Even compared to the 2008 global economic crisis, analysis shows that the economic damage caused by Corona 19 is much larger and inequality is worsening.
In particular, it is said to have a greater and rapid impact on low-wage workers, women and young workers.
A few years ago, a change in jobs was predicted due to the rise of innovative technologies with two sides like AI.
The job landscape is changing unprecedentedly and rapidly as the economic contraction caused by the pandemic is added.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) released'The Future of Job 2020 Report' in October.
It is a report prepared by researching business leaders, including the CEOs of companies, targeting 15 industries and 291 global companies, and synthesizing the latest public and private data.
The main contents of the report are as follows.
-Workers around the world will experience'double-disruption' due to the impact of Corona 19 and the aftermath of the transition of automation technology that has been ongoing.
Computers will be in charge of large-scale data processing tasks, and administrative management and repetitive manual tasks will be done by white and blue workers.
-Due to this divergence, employers have to make significant investments in their employees''reskilling' and'upskilling' so that they can fully secure their future work skills.
Half of the employers will have to focus on retraining their employees over the next five years.
-As more and more companies are replacing human work with machines and technology, 85 million jobs worldwide, mainly in the administrative and office fields, will be eliminated by 2025.
Instead, it is also expected that 97 million jobs will be created during the same period. *Compared to WEF's forecast two years ago (133 million created and 75 million lost), the rate at which jobs are lost rather than created. Became faster.
-With the prolonged corona pandemic crisis, the transition to remote work will be faster.
78% of business leaders believe that the way they work today will have a negative impact on productivity.
84% of the companies responding to the survey said they plan to digitize their work systems, including the introduction of telework, and that it is possible to relocate 44% of the 7.7 million they hired to telework.
However, these changes will ultimately change in the direction of increasing the total number of jobs rather than reducing them.
-It is predicted that artificial intelligence (AI), content production, and the'care economy' sector for children and the elderly will also become industrial sectors that will provide new jobs.
On the other hand, data entry, accounting, and administrative assistant tasks are on the decline.
-43% of the companies surveyed said they plan to cut jobs within five years due to the rise of innovative technologies, and 41% said they would gradually subsidize their specialized skills through outsourcing contracts.
-It is expected that the working hours of humans and machines will be the same within the next five years.
This'reversal' flow, in which humans increasingly give jobs to machines, will accelerate as technologies that promote automation and the corona 19 pandemic overlap.
-Those who have moved to the'emerging new' job over the past five years have worked in completely different fields, and 50% of those who have transferred to the data science and artificial intelligence (AI) fields were from other fields.
In the case of content development jobs, 72% and 67% of all technical jobs left unrelated fields.
-Then, what are the future talents that corporate leaders expect?
Even in the'automation era', human critical thinking, analysis and problem-solving abilities are more valuable.
Business leaders predicted that individuals with self-management skills such as critical thinking and analysis, problem solving and active learning will stand out.
As non-face-to-face work is prolonged, individual stress tolerance, thinking flexibility, and flexibility are also competencies that companies increase the weight of evaluation.
-In accordance with the changing work environment, many companies are providing training opportunities for employees to develop new competencies.
Of the 291 companies surveyed by the World Economic Forum, 94% said they expect their current employees to develop new capabilities in line with the times.
This is a number that surged by 30%p from 65% in 2018.
-The speed of adoption of technologies in certain fields is also expected to accelerate.
From cloud computing, big data and e-commerce to encryption, non-humanoid robots and artificial intelligence, business leaders are particularly interested.
-About one-third of all employers say they will take steps to create a sense of community, connection, and belonging among their employees through digital tools and to address the well-being challenges of working remotely.
-According to a study by the IBM Institute for Business Value, 120 million workers in the world's 12 largest economies will need to be retrained over the next three years due to the advent of AI and automation.
In China, more than 50 million workers, 11 million in the US, and millions in Germany and Japan, need to be retrained by the introduction of AI.
According to the study, the time it takes to bridge the skills gap through such training has also increased by more than 10 times over the past four years.
In 2014, it took an average of 3 days to close the competency gap through corporate training, compared to 36 days in 2018.
The report from the World Economic Forum particularly pinpoints the situation where AI technology is developing at a fierce pace without proper regulation or supervision.
The World Economic Forum said, "We are embracing cutting-edge technology without presenting a systematic way to reeducate tens of thousands of workers. It is the most important solution to deal with this trend carefully."
Similar concerns can be found in a report published by MIT.
According to a report released last month by the MIT TF team for <Work of the Future>, even before Corona 19, among ordinary people with secondary education or without specialized skills, there was a lot of anxiety about their jobs.
For many people in the United States, technological advancement is a'opaque state', and most people only perceive the degree of'robot development' as a phenomenon.
However, there are reports that artificial intelligence will replace even tasks that require judgment and expertise in the future, and highly specialized office work such as lawyers and accountants is no exception to this trend.
MIT in particular emphasizes that countries and businesses should invest in workers and the skills they will use, and develop teaching and training skills to help workers themselves respond to their future careers.
At the same time, they point out that the'system' of hiring workers and the'laws' that protect and support them should be improved.
Innovation is necessary not only for new industries, but also for the institutions and structures of the labor market, as well as technologies that create new jobs.
It is important to remember that, just as many of today's jobs did not exist a century ago, many jobs in the 21st century have not even appeared.
How did you read the prospects of major institutions for future jobs?
The SDF team is waiting for your comments.
SBS SDF Team / sdf@sbs.co.kr
** References and articles
<The Future of Jobs Report 2020, October 2020> World Economic Forum
<The Work of the Future: Building Better Jobs in an Age of Intelligent Machines> MIT Work of the Future
<Future of Work Trends Post-COVID-19 (Long-Term Impact & Actions for HR)> Gartner for HR
<Report outlines route toward better jobs, wider prosperity> November 17, 2020
<AI revolution means 120 million people need to reskill> September 9, 2019. ©Workplace Insight 2020
☞ Subscribe to SDF Diary