Conditional prices remain stable
According to the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 11, in December 2020, the CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year.
Among them, food prices rose by 1.2%, and non-food prices remained flat.
For the whole year of 2020, national consumer prices will rise by 2.5% over the previous year.
Relevant sources pointed out that in 2020, the overall increase in CPI will show a pattern of high and low, and the annual increase will be within a reasonable operating range, and the price control target has been completed.
Next, prices may fluctuate due to seasonal factors and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but overall conditions are stable.
The month-on-month and year-on-year CPI both changed from falling to rising
In December 2020, both the month-on-month and year-on-year CPI ratios have changed from falling to rising.
According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2020, all regions and departments will consolidate and expand the results of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Consumer demand continues to grow. At the same time, affected by special weather and rising costs, the CPI has changed from falling. rise.
Specifically, the month-on-month CPI changed from a 0.6% decrease in the previous month to an increase of 0.7%, of which the price of food changed from a 2.4% decrease in the previous month to an increase of 2.8%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.62 percentage points; A decline of 0.5% turned into an increase of 0.2%, of which food prices turned from a 2.0% decline last month to an increase of 1.2%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.26 percentage points.
As the main factor driving the increase in CPI in December 2020, the prices of meat, eggs, and vegetables in food have risen to varying degrees.
According to Dong Lijuan’s analysis, from a month-on-month perspective, the production, storage and transportation costs of fresh vegetables and fruits have increased due to the continuous low temperature weather, and the prices have risen by 8.5% and 3.5% respectively. With the arrival of the New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival, consumer demand increases seasonally, and feed costs have increased. As a result, pork prices changed from a 6.5% drop last month to an increase of 6.5%, mutton prices changed from flat last month to 2.6%, and egg prices changed from a 1.6% drop last month to a 2.9% increase.
As far as the whole year of 2020 is concerned, CPI has experienced large fluctuations.
Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, analyzed to our reporter that the year-on-year increase in CPI gradually dropped to a low level at the end of the year after reaching a high of 5.4% in January 2020. Obviously, the main influencing factor is the fluctuation of food prices.
On the whole, the annual increase of 2.5% was within a reasonable operating range, achieving the annual price control target.
A sharp rise in agricultural products is unlikely
As the Spring Festival is approaching, how do you see the price trend in the later period?
Meng Wei, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that due to the "holiday effect", prices may rise in stages. However, due to the continuous recovery of live pig production and supply and the overall supply of vegetables, the price increase during the holidays is expected to be modest.
"With the support of festival consumption and increased production and distribution costs, the overall price of agricultural products is expected to fluctuate seasonally, but the possibility of a sharp rise is unlikely. We need to continue to pay attention to the impact of low temperature, rain and snow, and the epidemic on the normal production and marketing of agricultural products." Said Tang Ke, director of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Talking about the prices of specific agricultural products, Tang Ke said that pork prices may rise slightly due to demand before the Spring Festival, but stabilized and fell after the Spring Festival.
The stocks of beef cattle and mutton sheep have increased from the previous quarter at the end of the third quarter of 2020, but the import is affected by the epidemic with greater uncertainty. Affected by the peak consumption season, the price of beef and mutton is steadily rising.
The launch of aquaculture products is speeding up, and the prices of aquatic products are expected to remain stable but weak.
The overall supply capacity of winter and spring vegetables is steadily rising, and vegetable prices will run on a regular basis.
The overall fruit yield is abundant, the market supply is sufficient, and prices will continue to rise slightly seasonally due to demand.
Lian Ping believes that the absolute value of the stock of live pigs is still at a relatively low level, and it is expected that after the second quarter of this year, the number of slaughters will return to the annual average level; and winter is the peak season for pork consumption, consumption growth may cause short-term pork supply and demand to tighten.
It is expected that the wholesale pork price in 2021 will experience a period of high volatility in the first quarter, and will show a gentle downward trend supported by the continued narrowing of the supply gap.
Ensuring the "vegetable basket" needs of urban and rural residents
Throughout the year, Tang Ke said that in 2020, my country's grain production will have another bumper harvest, rice and wheat stocks will remain at historical highs, pig production capacity recovery momentum is good, livestock and poultry, fruit and vegetable production is stable, and the domestic agricultural product market is expected to remain stable in 2021.
"In the future, with the orderly improvement of the economic situation, employment and consumption will gradually return to normal, and the core CPI is expected to show a steady recovery at a low base level year-on-year." Lian Ping said that in the later period, the global economic recovery and the further recovery of domestic demand will jointly develop Driven by strong forces, price fluctuations are expected to gradually return to economic fundamentals, and CPI operations are expected to stabilize after they recover.
In response to ensuring supply and price stability during the Spring Festival, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued a notice recently, emphasizing the full implementation of the food security governor’s responsibility system and the “vegetable basket” mayor responsibility system, strengthening the management of important reserve commodities such as meat and vegetables to ensure The market supply and prices of important commodities such as grain, oil, meat, vegetables, fruit, milk, etc. have been operating smoothly.
According to the characteristics of the festival, organize production and sales to meet the diverse consumer needs of the people.
Strengthen food safety supervision, product quality supervision, and price supervision to protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers.
The linkage mechanism of linking social assistance and security standards with rising prices will be launched at an appropriate time to ensure that the basic living standards of the people in need will not be reduced due to rising prices.
Tang Ke pointed out that in the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will take targeted measures to do a good job in the production and supply of important agricultural products during the festival, prevent the problem of poor production and sales due to sudden epidemics or catastrophic weather, and effectively protect the "vegetable basket" of urban and rural residents. product demand.
At the same time, continue to strengthen the market monitoring and early warning and information release of small agricultural products such as onion, ginger and garlic, effectively guiding production and sales, and promoting the smooth operation of the market.
(Reporter Qiu Haifeng)
"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (Version 03, January 12, 2021)