Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 11 (Dai Congfei Zhang Meng) On the 11th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2020 and the whole year.
Many institutions predict that the year-on-year increase in CPI in December may pick up and turn negative to positive; the increase in CPI for the whole year of 2020 may remain in the "second era" for the third consecutive year.
December CPI increased year-on-year or turned negative to positive
Entering December, the country’s weather continued to get cold, and the Central Meteorological Observatory issued several cold wave warnings.
Affected by this, food prices have risen.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in December, the national wholesale pork price was 43.28 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.85 yuan/kg from the previous month; the price index of vegetable basket products was 128.69, an increase of 8.61 percentage points from the previous month.
New Jingwei Wan Keyi in the data map
In November 2020, the CPI recorded a negative growth year-on-year, down 0.5%.
For the upcoming December CPI data, Wind data shows that as of January 10, 14 institutions have predicted an average of 0.1% for December CPI year-on-year increase.
Among them, the largest forecast value is 0.4% given by Guosen Securities, and the lowest is -0.3% given by China Merchants Securities.
CICC Macro pointed out that the recent low temperature has led to an increase in agricultural production, storage and transportation costs, and at the same time promotes seasonal growth in meat consumption.
In terms of high-frequency data, the prices of 28 key monitored vegetables increased by 9.5% month-on-month; the average pork price in 22 provinces and cities increased by 4.9% month-on-month.
CITIC Securities also believes that the month-on-month rise in the prices of agricultural products such as vegetables, fruits, and pigs may be related to the decline in temperatures in various parts of the country in December, and the cold wave caused a periodical decline in the supply of agricultural products.
At the same time, due to rising demand near the holiday season, pig prices increased seasonally in December.
Huachuang Securities said that the strong rise in food and oil prices pushed up new price increases as the main driving force behind the rebound in CPI.
It is expected that the CPI will rebound in December and the year-on-year correction will be around 0.2%.
Or maintain the "2" era throughout the year
Judging from the published data, from January to November, the national consumer prices rose by 2.7% over the same period last year.
Driven by the increase in pork prices, can the annual CPI increase achieve the price control target of about 3.5%?
Many institutions predict that the CPI increase in 2020 will be maintained at the "2" era for the third consecutive year.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that the impact of tail-lifting in December was -0.5%, and the new price increase factor is expected to be around 0.6%. The year-on-year increase in CPI will be around 0.1%, and the CPI in 2020 will be around 2.5%.
CICC, Guotai Junan, etc. also made the same forecast.
Shenwan Hongyuan expects a slightly higher value and believes that the CPI in the fourth quarter will increase by about 0.2% year-on-year, and 2.6% for the whole year.
In an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, China Everbright Bank Financial Market Analyst Zhou Maohua pointed out that taking into account the slight year-on-year increase in pork prices in December, the supply of fruits and vegetables is abundant, service prices are still sluggish, and the CPI is still shrinking year-on-year. The CPI for 2020 is expected to be year-on-year. Around 2.45%.
Zhou Maohua pointed out that looking at the trend of high prices before low and low prices in 2020, the structural characteristics are obvious, which are mainly affected by five factors: First, due to the gradual recovery of domestic pig production capacity, management has adopted various measures to stabilize meat supply and stabilize market expectations. Pork prices have stabilized and declined; second, the high base effect last year led to a year-on-year decline in CPI in the second half of last year; third, the management took measures to accelerate the recovery of domestic production, prioritizing the supply of necessities for the people’s livelihood, and the overall stability of fruit and vegetable prices; fourth, the sudden outbreak It also restrained domestic demand. The overall performance of service prices was sluggish, and the domestic core CPI was at a low level year-on-year. Fifth, the industrial sector's initiative to destock and reduce prices also restrained last year's prices.
Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client that currently, the CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year from January to November, ensuring that the CPI growth rate for the whole year of 2020 is within the government work target. It is expected that the CPI will be 2.5 in 2020. %about.
How will prices go in 2021?
Regarding the overall price trend in 2021, Zhou Maohua analyzed that in 2021, it is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise, and a steady recovery. Specifically, in the next few months, prices may be affected by a high base. The year-on-year increase in CPI may be in a contraction area, but gradually With a rebound, prices performed moderately throughout the year.
The main reason is that the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is good, and the effects of domestic demand policies continue to be released. In 2021, China's domestic demand will gradually return to normal levels, coupled with the gradual spread of global vaccination and the unprecedented demand support policies of major economies in the world will drive the prices of bulk commodities such as energy The central hub will rise slightly, and domestic industrial product prices will also gradually improve, which is good for price performance; but domestic pig production capacity has been steadily restored, and the increase in pork prices has been suppressed. The normalization of epidemic prevention and control and the process of vaccination will continue to slow down service prices Go higher.
Su Jian said that in 2020, affected by the shrinkage of pork supply, the price of pork and related foods will rise sharply.
Among them, the price of pork, beef, eggs and other foods has been significantly higher than the average price in recent years, and the price has risen significantly, especially the price of pork has more than doubled the price in 2018.
This makes the room for most food prices to rise in 2021 extremely limited, but on the contrary, there is a lot of room for price declines.
Huachuang Securities predicts that the central CPI will be around 1% in 2021, and the core CPI will also rise to around 1%.
Rhythmically, the CPI rose unilaterally in the first half of the year, and may fall into shocks in the second half, and the mid-year high may hit about 1.5%.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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