China News Online, January 10th (Gao Zhimiao) More than 50 chief economists from domestic and foreign banks, securities, funds, insurance, and investment banks gathered here at the 2021 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting to serve "Research and judge the pulse" and give the "chief plan".

  "Our economy can no longer rely solely on external or internal cycles. No single cycle can maintain sustainable growth in the future. Therefore, "dual cycle" is not an option, I think it is an inevitable result." Shen Minggao, global chief economist of GF Securities, told a reporter from Chinanews.com.

  Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, also said that China has become a “dual center” of supply and demand in the Asia-Pacific region.

"We can use the internal circulation to drive the entire regional economic integration to the top. This is a choice that conforms to the objective trend of world development, from a flat global world to a three-centered, multi-level globalized world."

2021 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting Roundtable Discussion Photo by Gao Zhimiao

  Liu Feng, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, said that "circulation" is not a new concept. It has also been proposed to participate in the international cycle before.

"But this time the'dual cycle' proposal is focused, indicating the need to increase the reshaping and upgrading of domestic demand."

  According to Niu Bokun, chief economist of Huachuang Securities, the future global industrial chain will have several development trends.

"The key core industries involved in the national economy and people's livelihood will return to the local area; the industrial chain will appear regionalized and decentralized; based on China, the world's largest consumer market will be visible in the future, and a considerable part of the industrial chain will still gather in China."

  "In the internal cycle, there is import substitution, and there are also the transfer of low-end labor-intensive industries to other countries, making us its import increment. I think China's dual cycle is not only an opportunity for China, but also for the world. Opportunities. From a global perspective, China’s double cycle means that China will bring more increments, China will not bring increments, and the world will have no increments.” Shen Minggao emphasized.

  In Cheng Shi's view, the emergence of the new pattern will also bring new development opportunities.

"We can see the sinking of China's consumption focus, the development of personalized market segments, and the return of service import demand, all of which are bringing more and more new opportunities to the entire real economy and financial market."

  How will the new development pattern of "double cycle" go in the future?

Cheng Shi said that with the establishment of the dual-cycle model, China's supply side will enter a new process of value chain reshaping.

  "In the future, China will build its own brand-new internal industrial chain and value chain through internal circulation, and then realize the state of entering the chain with the chain and entering the state of the external circulation. We must cultivate scientific and technological pioneers in the field of R&D and design, and cultivate domestic brands in the field of brand marketing , The processing and manufacturing field emphasizes hidden champions." Cheng Shi emphasized.

  Wang Han, chief economist of Industrial Securities, emphasized that the new development pattern of "dual cycles" also needs to be systemic and safe.

"When we are restructuring the domestic industrial chain, what we need to do on the external cycle line is how to ensure that we can open enough domestic demand to foreign countries. But we must also ensure that even if the international situation changes, our domestic system can be turned around. ."(Finish)