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Thousands of students are expected to return to campus in the coming semester - at least that's what many American universities and colleges are planning.
However, there is nowhere near enough test capacity to contain the corona infection rate.
There is now scientific consensus that universities and schools can only prevent devastating outbreaks of the virus if they test their students and pupils often enough.
Even a vaccine could not replace regular tests, said a panel of experts just last week.
Duke University in North Carolina has now developed a procedure for tests that could serve as a model for other universities next spring: the so-called "pooling method".
The doctors simply test several swab samples from different students at once.
If the pool smear is positive, one of the students tested has apparently been infected with corona.
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But experts warn: The prerequisites for the undertaking were enormous acceptance by schoolchildren and students, extensive planning, a lot of money - and low infection rates.
But: Without any control, there is a risk that universities and colleges will become corona hotspots, where the virus first spreads in dormitories, then at parties and finally in the communities.
"The colleges are by and large not ready to reopen," said Chris Marsicano, director of the College Crisis Initiative (C2i) at Davidson College in North Carolina.
Early projections by Marsicano's team show that around 60 percent of US universities want to teach at least some of their students on campus in the coming year.
But only an estimated eight percent of them are currently able to test each of their students at least once a week.
“Can the universities successfully open in the spring without robust tests?
The answer is: yes, they can, ”says Marsicano.
"Should you?
Under no circumstance."
Princeton University with its own test laboratory
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Princeton University in New Jersey has set up its own test laboratory on its campus and came to the conclusion that regular tests, permanent mask wear and "social distancing" could enable students at the private university to return to campus for the spring semester.
Meanwhile, Harvard University in Massachusetts only wants selected groups to be allowed on the campus.
This includes, for example, students from regions whose time zone is more than four hours ahead of or behind Harvard's Eastern Standard Time.
“Seniors” (students in their final year of study, editor's note) and “Juniors” in their third year of study, who can only do their studies on campus, should also be allowed to return.
Other schools, for example some wealthy, smaller art schools, are rushing forward with similar ideas that they were able to test out in the fall.
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Even the University of North Carolina (UNC) wants to bring some students back into classroom teaching.
The college already had plans to hold classes back on campus in August, but withdrew them.
At that time, the number of infections skyrocketed due to parties outside the university grounds.
Important lessons have been learned from this experience - and those from partner universities.
The UNC wants to allow students to live and learn on campus - but only with restrictions.
The teachers have already rejected the proposal.
Her objection: "We are making too many of the same mistakes that we made in autumn."
Parents want money back because of university closings
There are mainly legal reasons why the universities absolutely want to reopen: When they switched to online teaching at the beginning of the pandemic, they were overwhelmed by a wave of lawsuits.
More than 150 students and parents from across the United States requested that colleges repay tuition fees.
They doubted that a digital education could be worth as much money as a classic college course.
Those universities that are now inviting people to return argue very differently: Harvard, for example, stated that it was especially important for juniors to work on final projects on campus.
Online lessons are also particularly difficult for students who live in other time zones.
Kevin Guskiewicz, Chancellor of the University of North Carolina, admitted: "There are still great uncertainties." The UNC will keep a close eye on the situation and adjust the rules if necessary.
According to Guskiewicz, the university wants to announce possible changes to the semester by January 9th.
Corona tests on campus will still be needed if a vaccine is available, according to a group of experts from the National Acadamies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.
It will take some time to distribute the vaccine doses, after all - and college students won't be the top priority in the first round of vaccination.
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Testing alone is not a solution either.
This is shown, for example, by universities that were able to successfully contain the spread of the virus in the autumn: They were often in communities where the infection rates were relatively low, and they relied on very costly strategies to deal with the pandemic: not just mandatory tests but mainly on masks and social distancing.
“Very few universities are capable of this,” says Marsicano from C2i.
"Because good pandemic management is very expensive."
The main reason why Duke University has developed its own test method in which it scans an entire cocktail of nasal swabs is because that ties up fewer test resources.
The method is based on a tactic that researchers developed during the HIV crisis in the 1980s.
"Pool tests" save material
The aim is to contain local infection clusters and thus prevent larger outbreaks.
But according to experts, there is a catch: The method is most successful where the infection rates are low anyway.
"As soon as the incidence rate starts to rise, the numbers will be against you," said Tony Moody, infectious disease expert and laboratory director at the University of Duke's Human Vaccine Institute.
Although more and more new, cheap and fast test technologies are coming onto the market, many schools often continue to rely on so-called PCR tests - although these are more precise than other methods, they are also very prone to delivery bottlenecks.
"Pool tests" like the Duke method could help.
Duke regularly tested many students for corona, regardless of whether they had symptoms or not.
The scientists simply put multiple test samples together in a single test tube.
If such a combination sample showed a potential infection, the testers marked each of the individual samples for follow-up tests.
Duke concluded that the entire testing process takes 18 to 30 hours and saves chemical test reagents and laboratory space compared to traditional individual tests.
Of the around 10,000 Duke students who had a total of 69,000 tests between the beginning of August and mid-October, 84 were infected with corona - half of them had no symptoms.
From the point of view of the disease protection agency CDC, this result shows that a “considerable proportion of infections” is overlooked when universities only test students with symptoms.
Colleges that want to follow Duke's example have a few things to consider: if the infection rates in the region rise, the laboratories ultimately have to retest more and more individual samples.
That could slow down the testing process and then strain capacity.
With high infection rates, “pool tests” no longer make sense
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"If the incidence rate for the combined tests is extremely high, there is even more total testing than if the students were to undergo individual tests in the first place," Steve Haase, Duke Professor of Biology and Medicine, recently told journalists.
“We were lucky enough to have a relatively low infection rate.
That is why the pooling strategy worked for us, ”adds Duke infectiologist Moody.
"We only needed a few clinical tests - instead of sending many samples to the laboratory."
Vague guidelines, complex logistics and high costs are still immense hurdles for schools whose testing strategies are not yet fully developed.
According to Marsicano of C2i, the government needs to allocate more money to universities and colleges so that more students can test.
This is particularly necessary at state universities - there were repeated major outbreaks in the fall semester.
"The institutions have to at least test the students when they return to the university campus," says Marsicano.
"Then the universities can prevent their students from leaving the campus - and if someone tests positive, they can isolate themselves." That way, the virus would only spread within a small group.
The University of North Carolina plans to test students early in the spring semester or require them to submit a negative corona test shortly before they return to campus.
During the semester, the students should then take a test twice a week.
Frequent tests prevent the spread of infection
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The university's health center recommends that students get tested every five to nine days.
North Carolina State University will also test all students when they return.
Representatives of the UNC faculty believe that "the test plans for the spring have been significantly improved" - but they continue to insist that the university should not hold classroom teaching.
"We have to assume that the university will be overrun by the new infections once again when the lessons are back to normal," said a letter from the teachers.
"Are those responsible ready to face this situation when it occurs?"
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Other colleges want to stick to distance learning in the coming semester.
All 23 departments of California State University (CSU), at which a total of 482,000 students are enrolled, will largely continue to teach virtually, said CSU Chancellor Timothy P. White in early September.
"Right now, that's the only decision we can answer for," says White.
“The test infrastructure is still in progress in California and at the CSU.
The tests are still too expensive to be carried out regularly and quickly - but they are necessary so that Covid-19 does not spread further. "
Translated by Celine Schäfer.
This article comes from a cooperation with "Politico".
Click on these links, leave welt.de and land on the articles at politico.eu.
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