The end of the two consecutive rises, the central parity of the RMB depreciated slightly by 4 basis points

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 7th, on the 7th, the central parity of the renminbi depreciated slightly by 4 basis points to 6.4608. On January 5 and 6, the central parity of the renminbi exchange rate rose for two consecutive times.

　　Screenshot of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center

　　On the first trading day of 2021 (January 4), the onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar recovered the 6.50, 6.49, 6.48, 6.47, and 6.46 points, rising to 6.4579 yuan, a new high since June 20, 2018.

The offshore renminbi to US dollar exchange rate broke through the 6.45 mark first, rising to 6.4417 yuan.

On the same day, the onshore renminbi closed at 6.4620 yuan against the U.S. dollar in night trading, up 663 basis points from the day and night closing of the previous trading day.

　　On the 5th, the RMB continued to perform well.

The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar surpassed three hurdles, once regaining the 6.43 mark, setting a new high in more than two and a half years.

As of the 5th, the onshore yuan rose more than 700 points in two days.

Although the central parity rate of the renminbi rose by 648 basis points that day, there was still a difference of 132 basis points from the closing price of the renminbi against the US dollar at 16:30 on the 4th.

　　Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that this has released a signal that the exchange rate does not want to continue to appreciate sharply, and that the exchange rate fluctuates steadily.

　　On the 6th, the onshore renminbi-dollar spot exchange rate at 16:30 closed at 6.4615 yuan, a 25-point increase from the previous closing price.

In the night trading, the onshore RMB closed at 6.4640 against the US dollar, which was 90 basis points lower than the previous trading day and night trading. The trading volume was 37.250 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.849 billion US dollars from the previous trading day.

　　As of press time on the 7th, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was reported at 6.4587; the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was reported at 6.4398.

The dollar index rose slightly to near 89.56.

　　Source: Wind

　　The 2021 work conference of the Central Bank and the 2021 National Foreign Exchange Administration Video Conference of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange held on the same day both put forward new goals for the management of cross-border capital flows this year.

　　The central bank stated that in 2021, it will deepen the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen macro-prudential management, guide market expectations, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

At the same time, improve the policies and systems related to the use of RMB.

Continue to promote high-quality two-way opening of financial markets.

Promote the sound and coordinated development of domestic and foreign currencies and offshore onshore markets.

　　The State Administration of Foreign Exchange mentioned that in 2021, strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of the foreign exchange situation, pay close attention to the impact of external shocks such as the epidemic, guide financial institutions and enterprises to adhere to the risk-neutral principle, combat foreign exchange speculation, strengthen market expectations management and macro-prudential management, and avoid The foreign exchange market fluctuates disorderly.

　　Guan Tao, global chief economist at Bank of China Securities, said that when the supply of foreign exchange exceeds demand and the appreciation pressure of the local currency appears, if the exchange rate is not too volatile, the foreign exchange policy is nothing more than increasing foreign exchange reserves, expanding capital outflow, or restricting capital. Inflow.

These quantitative tools also have their pros and cons.

Policy choice is actually a choice of goals, it is impossible to have both.

It is expected that this year will be a combination of foreign exchange policy of "increasing exchange rate flexibility + expanding capital outflow + regulating capital inflow".

　　Industrial Research believes that the appreciation cycle of the RMB exchange rate from the second half of 2020 is likely to continue to the first half of 2021; in the second half of the year, focusing on changes in the US dollar index and the rate of decline in the scale of social financing, the RMB may change from an appreciation trend to a shock trend.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)