The world economy will grow 4% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, after suffering a contraction of 4.3% in 2020, assuming that the initial distribution of vaccines against Covid-19 is expanded throughout the year, according to the latest projections of the World Bank, which warns that, in the event that infections continue to increase and the distribution of vaccines is delayed, the expansion of global GDP would be limited to 1.6%.

On the other hand, in an optimistic scenario, with a successful control of the pandemic and a faster vaccination process, world growth could accelerate to almost 5%, the institution points out.

According to the institution's baseline scenario, the GDP of advanced economies, which suffered a 5.4% fall in 2019, will grow by

3.3% this year and will accelerate to 3.5% in 2022

, while in the In the case of emerging and developing economies, GDP will grow by 5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022, after the contraction of 2.6% estimated in 2020.

Among the most developed economies, the World Bank forecasts that the United States will register an expansion of 3.5% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022, after falling 3.6% last year.

In turn, the

euro zone, for which it estimates a contraction of 7.4% in 2020, will rebound by 3.6%

in 2021 and 4% in 2022.

For its part, among emerging economies, the World Bank anticipates

China's GDP growth of 7.9% in 2021

and 5.2% in 2022, after managing to weather the Covid-19 crisis better than the rest of countries, with a growth of 2% in 2020.

In the case of India, the institution's forecasts point to a GDP rebound of 5.4% this year and 5.2% the next, after the collapse of 9.6% estimated for 2020.

World Bank Recommendations

In its report

World Economic Outlook

, the institution warns of the risk that the impact of the pandemic threatens to depress economic activity and income for a prolonged period and points to the

control of the spread of Covid-19 and the guarantee of a distribution rapid and comprehensive vaccination

as top short-term political priorities.

Also, to boost economic recovery, the World Bank calls on the authorities to facilitate a

reinvestment cycle

aimed at achieving sustainable growth that depends less on public debt.

As has happened in the past with other serious crises, the pandemic is expected to have long-lasting adverse effects on global activity, says the institution, for which the slowdown in global growth forecast for the next decade is likely to worsen due to the lack of investment, underemployment, and a shrinking workforce in many advanced economies.

"If history can be used, the global economy is heading into a

disappointing growth decade

, unless policymakers implement comprehensive reforms that improve the drivers for equitable and sustainable economic growth ", he warns.

In this sense, he affirms that the authorities responsible for economic policies "must continue to sustain the recovery", gradually shifting from income support to growth-promoting policies.

"While the global economy appears to have entered a moderate recovery, policymakers face enormous challenges trying to ensure that this still fragile global recovery gains momentum and lays the foundation for robust growth," said David Malpass, president of the World Bank Group.

"To overcome the impacts of the pandemic and counteract the adverse factors that affect investments, it is necessary to give a great impulse to the improvement of the business environment, increase the flexibility of the labor and product markets, and strengthen transparency and governance", added.

In addition, it will also be necessary to address the

financial fragilities of many of those countries

, as the growth crisis affects household budgets and the balance sheets of vulnerable companies, warned Carmen Reinhart, vice president and first economist of the World Bank.

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