On January 5, local time, the World Bank organization released the January 2021 Global Economic Outlook report.
In the report, the World Bank stated that assuming the new crown pneumonia vaccine is widely promoted in a year, it is expected that the global economy will grow by 4% in 2021.
However, if policymakers do not take decisive measures to contain the spread of the epidemic and implement reforms that promote investment, the recovery may be slow and weak.
According to the report, although the global economy has resumed growth after shrinking by 4.3% in 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused a large number of deaths and illnesses, plunged millions of people into poverty, and may inhibit economic activity and income growth for a long time.
The primary policy focus in the short term is to control the spread of the epidemic and ensure rapid and widespread deployment of vaccines.
To support economic recovery, the authorities also need to promote a reinvestment cycle, with the goal of achieving sustainable growth that is less dependent on government debt.
World Bank Group President David Malpass pointed out that although the global economy seems to have entered a slow recovery, policymakers are striving to ensure that the still fragile global recovery gains momentum and lays the foundation for strong growth. , Budget policies, central bank operations and structural reforms are facing severe challenges.
In order to overcome the impact of the epidemic and resist investment headwinds, it is necessary to vigorously promote the improvement of the business environment, increase the flexibility of labor and product markets, and strengthen transparency and governance.
It is estimated that the collapse of global economic activity in 2020 will be slightly less severe than previously predicted, mainly due to the slightly shallower contraction in advanced economies and the stronger recovery in China.
In contrast, the economic activities of most other emerging markets and developing economies have been affected more severely than expected.
In the report, the World Bank predicted that the Asia-Pacific region's annual economic growth will reach 7.4%, which will be mainly driven by China's economic recovery.
The World Bank predicts that China's economic growth rate will climb to 7.9% in 2021, reflecting the release of pent-up demand and the recovery of production and exports faster than expected.
Due to China's rapid growth, the total GDP of emerging markets and developing economies is expected to grow by 5% in 2021 after shrinking by 2.6% in 2020.
In advanced economies, the rebound that just occurred in the third quarter after the infection rate rebounded has stalled, showing that the recovery is slow and challenging. After an estimated 3.6% contraction in 2020, US GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021. In the Eurozone, after a 7.4% decline in 2020, output is expected to increase by 3.6% this year. Japan’s economic activity contracted 5.3% in the past year and is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2021. (CCTV reporter Xu Dezhi)