Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, January 5th. On the first trading day of 2021, the RMB exchange rate has a good start. The onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar both rose above the 6.5 mark, reaching the 6.4 era. It set a new high in the past two and a half years and exceeded the January ceiling previously predicted by the agency.
On January 4, the onshore renminbi closed at 6.4620 yuan against the U.S. dollar in night trading, up 663 basis points from the day and night closing of the previous trading day.
On January 6, 2020, the onshore renminbi against the U.S. dollar closed at 6.9768 yuan at night.
Based on this calculation, the exchange rate of 10,000 U.S. dollars is now 5148 yuan less than a year ago.
As of press time, offshore renminbi is quoted at 6.4559 against the US dollar.
At the same time, the US dollar weakened, with the US dollar index at 89.7680.
WIND data shows that the onshore RMB will increase by about 6.12% in 2020.
On January 4, 2021, the RMB exchange rate not only continued its upward trend, but also exceeded the January ceiling estimated by the Peking University National Economic Research Center.
According to the report of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate widely in both directions in the range of 6.50 to 6.65 in January 2021.
The report pointed out that the current fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by factors such as China's economic fundamentals and global risk aversion. From the overall trend in January, China's economic fundamentals have recovered steadily and are ahead of other countries, superimposed on the spread of Chinese and foreign interest rates. The continued high level will help boost market optimism, attract foreign capital inflows, and support the rise of the RMB exchange rate; global risk aversion may increase due to the second outbreak of the epidemic, which puts the RMB exchange rate under pressure.
Looking forward to 2021, analysts believe that there is still room for appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar.
According to the China Securities Journal, Hu Yuexiao, chief macro analyst at Shanghai Securities, believes that based on the internationalization of the renminbi and changes in the balance of economic power, the long-term direction of the renminbi exchange rate will remain unchanged in the long term.
The latest changes in the epidemic have once again increased the importance of China’s economy in the world economic structure, and the attractiveness of RMB assets to overseas investors has further increased; China’s economic growth will continue to lead the global economy in the next 2-3 years; China is one of the major economies in the world Few countries that implement normal monetary policies.
According to China News.com, Liu Ligang, managing director of Citibank’s research department and chief China economist, said that the appreciation of the renminbi in 2020 is mainly driven by market forces. China’s capital market has further opened up, foreign capital has increased its allocation of renminbi assets, and the spread of Chinese and foreign interest rates has gradually Factors such as expansion and the weakness of the US dollar index have supported the rapid appreciation of the renminbi this year, and these situations and phenomena will continue next year.
It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will rise to around 6.3 in June 2021 and may rise to around 6 by the end of the year.
Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, pointed out that the three factors that support the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate will not change in the short term, the performance of domestic and foreign economic recovery, the trend of monetary policy and the trend of the US dollar index. China's economy will continue to accelerate its recovery and monetary policy will gradually become normal. Change, the dollar index will continue to maintain a weak trend under the drag of the sluggish economic recovery and loose monetary policy in the United States.
Therefore, there is a high probability that the RMB will continue to remain strong in 2021.
According to China Business News, Bank of China Securities' global chief economist Guan Tao said that when studying the exchange rate trend, we must prevent "what is the point" before finding an argument, and you should listen to it.
The current strength of the renminbi is a resonance of multiple positives, but when the factors that affect the exchange rate rise and fall, one needs to be wary that the market may become insensitive to the positives and become sensitive to the negatives again.
In view of the fact that the RMB exchange rate has tended to a reasonable equilibrium level, a wide-ranging trend of wide opening and closing under the intertwined influence of long and short factors will become the new normal.
Therefore, all parties should maintain a certain degree of flexibility and should not bet on unilateral exchange rate movements.
Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, recently pointed out that there are still many uncertainties in the development of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the external environment. Financial institutions and enterprises must establish a "risk-neutral" awareness and manage operational risks.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)