Chief Watch 2021: Is the global economic inflection point accelerating?

(Economic Observer) Chief Watch 2021: Is the global economic turning point accelerating?　

　　China News Service, Beijing, January 2 (Chen Jing) In 2020, countries are struggling in epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery. Will the world economy be better in 2021?

Several chief experts accepted interviews with China News Agency to analyze the opportunities and challenges facing the world economy in the post-epidemic period.

　　The epidemic has a profound impact on the world economy.

　　Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said that in the short term, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is like pressing the "pause button" for the entire world. The world economy will enter a state of free fall in 2020, becoming a simultaneous global economic recession in the past century. The worst year.

　　On the other hand, in the difficult situation, we have also seen new hope. In the long run, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has pressed the "fast forward button" of the entire world.

A series of positive changes are slowly emerging, and the inflection point of the global economy is accelerating.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that because countries have maintained their basic needs in terms of fiscal and monetary policy assistance, and at the same time, although many countries have adopted lockdown measures, production and supply are affected, but international production capacity still exists. In addition, if the new crown in 2021 Vaccines are widely used, countries will further open their economies, and their economies will become more active. Under the premise of relatively stable demand, the global economic situation this year is more optimistic.

　　"Affected by the epidemic, global debt is expanding rapidly. In 2021, governments, enterprises, and individuals may all face debt pressure. This potential risk is worthy of vigilance." Wen Bin emphasized.

　　In 2021, new trends will emerge or continue.

Xu Sitao, chief economist of Deloitte China, said that first, in the post-epidemic era, the government will play an increasingly greater role in the economy and society.

　　Second, traditional industries will have a greater sense of urgency to embrace the new economy.

This trend has already appeared in 2020 and will continue in the next few years.

　　Third, the epidemic has increased the level of distrust among countries. Therefore, how to reduce the level of distrust in 2021 is a challenge for all countries.

　　In addition, Xu Sitao said that once the economy begins to recover in 2021, whether global policymakers have the courage to gradually withdraw the extraordinary measures in the epidemic is a matter of concern.

　　At present, major banks around the world are implementing super-loose monetary policies. Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that if the policy is adjusted and shifted beyond expectations, high-value investments that are highly dependent on loose liquidity may be affected. .

　　Xie Yaxuan believes that in 2021, loose monetary policy and the simultaneous recovery of the global economy will have a significant impact on the expansion of aggregate demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand for bulk commodities will become more prominent.

"So, the theme of rising commodity prices is one of the best investment options in 2021."

　　The recovery of the world economy will affect China's exports.

　　Li Qilin, deputy director and chief economist of Hongta Securities Research Institute, said that due to the repeated epidemics, many European countries and the United States have not recovered their production.

Even considering that vaccines may have a suppressive effect on the epidemic, the global economy can return to a normal track, but global inventories are at a historically low level, especially those at the retail end, so it is relatively certain to enter the active replenishment phase in the future.

　　Li Qilin believes that in the short term, foreign replenishment of inventories will still boost China's exports.

In addition, the recovery of the production side of emerging markets requires a process. In the first half of this year, this mismatched relationship between supply and demand will continue and may become a sub-item that promotes China's economic growth beyond expectations.

　　Xia Le, the former chief economist of the Bank of Spain in Asia, believes that in 2021, the production and use of vaccines will have a positive impact on the world economy. At the same time, the recovery of the external market will also increase China’s exports to other countries. The economy brings opportunities.

　　"In 2021, with the large-scale implementation of vaccination, the global epidemic may be relieved in the spring, which will cause the global economy to show a strong rebound and stimulate China's exports." said Zhang Liqing, chief economist of China at PricewaterhouseCoopers. At the same time, the weakening of foreign import demand for China's medical and protective materials, the recovery of manufacturing capacity in developed countries, the growth of emerging market economies in Asia and Latin America and the recovery of exports will also reduce the world's dependence on Chinese exports to a certain extent.

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