China News Service, Hangzhou, December 25 (Reporter Hu Yixin) "If the industrial chain formed after global economic integration is to be restored, it needs to be relatively synchronized in time and space, but the huge uncertainty brought by the epidemic will destroy The recovery process of the global industrial chain.” Talking about the restructuring of the global industrial chain, Shi Jinchuan, Dean of the Finance Research Institute of Zhejiang University, said that the uncertainty of time and space has caused the global industrial chain to fail to operate smoothly. This is also China’s dual-cycle strategy and It is a very important background to strengthen the independent security, stability and operation of the industrial chain.
On the 24th, the 2020 China Development Zone Industrial Link Performance and "Chain Length System" forum was held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. At the forum, Shi Jinchuan proposed to look at the dual cycle and industrial chain from a new perspective.
Shi Jinchuan believes that in the context of the spread and recurrence of the global epidemic, the global industrial chain cannot operate in an orderly manner, but China has controlled the epidemic relatively well, the overall economy has bottomed out, effectively resumed work and production, and a relatively complete industry All chains provide good conditions for internal circulation, which has become an important background for the proposal of the dual-cycle strategy and the reconstruction of the industrial chain.
In addition to the epidemic, Shi Jinchuan believes that the conflict between new technology and the old system has changed the comparative advantages of various countries, leading to faults in the original international industrial technology, international division of labor and the original industrial chain. "This makes the restructuring of the industrial chain inevitable. It is also a very important reason for the dual-cycle strategy."
What is the relationship between dual cycle, industrial upgrading, and value chain industrial chain reconstruction?
Shi Jinchuan said that demand can drive supply, and supply can create demand. The relationship between dual cycles and industrial upgrading is hidden behind the principle that supply creates demand.
Shi Jinchuan explained that the implementation of the national dual-cycle strategy must be grasped from the perspective of the interaction between aggregate demand and total supply from a macro perspective; from a micro perspective, it must be based on both the supply and demand of products (services) in the market. To grasp the situation, promote the market supply and demand to maintain a high level of dynamic equilibrium.
"The dual-cycle strategy is not a simple question of using international and domestic markets."
Shi Jinchuan believes that in the link of "new technology-new product-new preference-new demand", if the front-end is not done well, it is impossible to have a high-quality dual-cycle new pattern.
"The research and development of new technologies and new products is connected with the transformation and upgrading of the industry. It is the foundation of industrial transformation and upgrading, and the transformation and upgrading of the industry will definitely require the restructuring of the industrial chain. From this perspective, cutting-edge basic scientific research and research and development of cutting-edge technologies The accumulation of talents and related high-end elements is the key to the restructuring and upgrading of the industrial chain."
Regarding how to implement the dual-cycle strategy, Shi Jinchuan believes that it is necessary to grasp the three new characteristics of the regionalization, clustering and backup of global production networks and industrial chains.
In Shi Jinchuan’s view, the original industrial chain was built under the comparative advantages of various countries, but under ideological and political intervention, major countries will be used as nodes in certain regions, and the major economies that are close to the space will coordinate the layout of the industrial chain. .
"There may be three regionalizations of the industrial chain: one is East Asian economies and ASEAN, the other is Europe and the EU, and the third is North America and Mexico."
In terms of chain grouping, Shi Jinchuan believes that chain grouping is supported by independent innovation. It is made up of people with considerable scale and strength, strong R&D and innovation capabilities, and at the same time, some people or persons who are at key nodes in the construction of the entire industrial chain. As the "chain owner", the enterprise restructures the industrial chain based on modern industrial clusters.
"The combination method of the chain group must be market-led rather than administratively promoted."
Backup means that the focus and isomorphism of the chain group in different regions will increase.
Shi Jinchuan said that if two regular large and small circles overlap, there is only one tangent point, but if they are not regular circles, there will be many overlapping parts together. This overlap shows the characteristics of backup.
"When the international economic environment is good, follow the big circle of the overlapping part and follow the international cycle. If you encounter problems, you can follow the small inner circle of the overlapping part, so backup is very important."
Shi Jinchuan believes that the ultimate goal of regionalization, chain clustering, and backup is to increase the competitiveness, safety and stability of the industrial chain. For enterprises, it is to increase their innovation capabilities, independent capabilities and support capabilities.
"In general, institutional innovation is the guarantee for the restructuring of the industrial chain, while technological innovation is the direct force driving the industrial chain." Shi Jinchuan said.
It is reported that the 2020 China Development Zone Industry Link Performance and "Chain Length System" forum is hosted by the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce, organized by the Zhejiang Branch of China News Agency and Zhejiang Development Zone Research Association, and the China Development Zone Association and the Yangtze River Delta Development Zone Cooperative Development Alliance stand by.
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