Carbon reduction has become the main focus of the "14th Five-Year" ecological environment protection
Draw a roadmap for my country's low-carbon transformation
Our reporter Li He
At the United Nations General Assembly, my country clearly stated that carbon dioxide emissions should reach the peak before 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
At the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference, "Doing a good job in carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" was listed as one of the key tasks for next year.
"The 14th Five-Year Plan for ecological and environmental protection will seize the overall starting point of carbon reduction and promote the achievement of peak carbon emissions by 2030. We will support places where conditions permit to reach the peak first, encourage some key industries to reach the peak first, and accelerate the establishment of a national Carbon market, while encouraging local pilots and demonstrations." At a press conference held by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment on December 29, Xu Bijiu, Director of the Comprehensive Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, said.
In the United Nations General Assembly, my country clearly stated that we will strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
At the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference, "Doing a good job in carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" was listed as one of the key tasks for next year.
It is required to speed up the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure and energy structure, promote coal consumption to peak as soon as possible, vigorously develop new energy, accelerate the construction of a national energy rights and carbon emission rights trading market, and improve the dual control system of energy consumption.
Then, how to understand the importance of "carbon peak and carbon neutral"?
How will my country's future low-carbon transformation road go?
What impact will it bring to social and economic development?
Achieving carbon neutrality is a fundamental measure to protect the ecological environment
"The proposal of China's new climate goals will play an important guiding role in accelerating low-carbon transformation and long-term low-carbon development strategies after the domestic epidemic, as well as advancing the process of global climate governance." Academic Committee of the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University Professor He Jiankun explained that carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are actually two stages of struggle.
In the first stage, before 2030, my country's carbon dioxide emissions will reach its peak.
He Jiankun said that this is because my country is still in the process of industrialization and urbanization, the economy is developing relatively fast, and energy demand is still growing.
In the case of continuous growth in energy demand, to achieve the peak of carbon emissions before 2030, we must vigorously improve the energy structure.
The newly-increased energy demand is mainly met by new non-fossil energy supplies. It is ensured that fossil energy such as coal and oil will not increase basically, so that it is possible to achieve the peak of carbon emissions as soon as possible.
"The goal of this stage coincides with the goal of the first stage of China's modernization drive in 2035, that is, basically realizing modernization, fundamentally improving the ecological environment, and basically achieving the goal of building a beautiful China." He Jiankun said.
According to data released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's three major defense wars of blue sky, clear water and pure land have achieved remarkable results.
The coal-fired power generating units that have achieved ultra-low emissions total 900 million kilowatts, and the country’s 620 million tons of crude steel production capacity is undergoing ultra-low emission transformation.
Supervision and assistance in key areas of the Blue Sky Defense War helped local governments find and solve a total of 272,000 problems. A total of 2,804 drinking water sources, 10,363 ecological and environmental problems were rectified, and the drinking water safety level of approximately 770 million residents was improved. The elimination rate of black and odorous water bodies in built-up areas of cities of Grade A and above exceeds 95%.
In the second phase, efforts will be made to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
He Jiankun emphasized that in order to achieve carbon neutrality, the energy system must be built into a near-zero emission energy system with new energy and renewable energy as the main body.
Consumption of coal, oil, natural gas, etc. must be kept at an extremely low level.
Fundamentally reduce the emission of conventional pollutants generated from fossil energy consumption, such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, PM2.5, etc.
"Although my country has adopted many energy-saving, emission-reduction and pollution control measures in the process of fossil energy consumption, as the space for end-of-pipe treatment measures is getting smaller and smaller, fundamentally reducing fossil energy consumption is to improve environmental quality and protect the ecological environment. The most fundamental measure. Therefore, achieving carbon neutrality is a requirement for the sustainable development of my country's own modernization drive, and it is consistent with the goal of building a modern socialist country and a beautiful China in the middle of this century." He Jiankun said.
Key provinces and industries give priority to formulating carbon reduction roadmaps
At present, all parts of my country are stepping up to formulate a road map for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
Especially in provinces rich in fossil energy such as Shanxi, Shaanxi and Henan, how should they take the path of low-carbon transition?
Du Xiangwan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, took Henan Province as an example to say that Lankao County, Kaifeng City, Henan Province, is conducting my country’s first rural energy revolution pilot.
As an agricultural county in the central region, Lankao's wind energy resources are not rich compared to Inner Mongolia, and solar energy resources are not rich.
However, now "wind energy and solar energy have turned around".
When the pilot started three years ago, Lankao mainly relied on external coal power. Through technological development, it is expected that by next year, Lankao’s renewable energy power generation capacity can basically meet the county's electricity demand.
Du Xiangwan emphasized that Lankao’s case shows that although the central and eastern regions of my country are not as rich in renewable energy as the northwestern region, they also have sufficient renewable energy resources.
Especially with the improvement of my country's renewable energy development technology and the reduction of costs, the prospect of vigorously developing non-fossil energy is becoming clearer.
Wei Wei, vice president of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that industry is the foundation of economic development. my country has a strong industrial system and needs to find a low-carbon or decarbonized path suitable for my country's industrial development.
According to statistics, about 75% of global carbon emissions come from energy, while about 90% of my country's carbon emissions come from energy.
my country is a big manufacturing country, and the energy consumption of the industrial sector accounts for 2/3 of the total final energy consumption.
Wei Wei said that the industrial sector has high emissions, it is difficult to reduce emissions, and the carbon lock-in effect is obvious.
For example, in 2018, my country's steel industry produced 996 million tons of crude steel, accounting for 53% of global output, and contributing 8.32% to my country's overall GDP.
The steel production process is long, there are many carbon emission nodes, and the carbon emission concentration of each node is also different, and the solution is different.
Coupled with factors such as high dependence on high-carbon energy, difficulty in low-carbon energy intervention, and low maturity of new technologies, the remaining carbon emission reduction space of existing measures in the steel industry is about 15%-20%, which is extremely difficult to achieve.
Therefore, to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, the steel industry needs to formulate a detailed "road map" and introduce innovative technologies.
He Jiankun said that in the short term, achieving rapid industrial transformation and reducing carbon emissions will limit the development of some industries with high energy consumption and serious pollution.
But in the long run, it can promote industrial restructuring, transformation and upgrading, and stimulate the development of digital economy, high-tech industries and modern service industries.
Take multiple measures to complete low-carbon transformation and technological upgrading
He Jiankun emphasized that under the general trend of tackling climate change and global low-carbon transformation, low-carbon core technologies and development capabilities, as well as low-carbon industrial structure, are signs of modernization and the embodiment of core competitiveness.
"Technological innovation often surpasses our imagination, just like no one thought 10 years ago, today the cost of photovoltaic power generation will be reduced by 80%-90%, and the cost of wind power will be reduced by 40%-60%." He said.
Industries with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions can only have development potential and competitiveness in the future if they carry out technological innovation and realize low-carbon transformation and technological upgrading.
Xu Bijiu said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we will accelerate the promotion of green and low-carbon development, actively respond to climate change, and formulate and implement an action plan for peaking carbon emissions by 2030.
Build and operate a national carbon emission rights registration and settlement system and trading system; deepen low-carbon pilot demonstrations and start local pilots for climate investment and financing.
In terms of energy, Zhao Chenxin, Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we will adhere to and improve the dual control system of total energy consumption and intensity, establish and improve management systems such as energy budgets; strengthen management of key energy-consuming units, and accelerate the implementation of comprehensive Energy efficiency improvement and other energy-saving projects, in-depth promotion of energy conservation and consumption reduction in key areas such as industry, construction, and transportation, and continuous improvement of the energy efficiency of new infrastructure; speed up the construction of a national energy rights trading market, extensively carry out national energy conservation actions, and create an overall social atmosphere conducive to energy conservation .
The "Paris Agreement" proposes that by the end of this century, the global average temperature rise should be controlled within 2°C of the pre-industrial level, and efforts will be made to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C.
According to estimates, if the 2℃ target-oriented transformation path is achieved, the energy system will need about 100 trillion yuan in new investment from 2020 to 2050, accounting for 1.5%-2% of the annual GDP; if the 1.5℃ target-oriented transformation path is achieved , The need to invest about 138 trillion yuan, roughly equivalent to more than 2.5% of annual GDP.
He Jiankun said that it is foreseeable that there will be some costs and costs in the process of low-carbon transformation.
For example, some coal power stations that have not reached the end of their life will be shut down, causing stranded costs, which in turn will bring financial risks.
But in the long run, the transition from coal to renewable energy also brings new economic growth points and new employment opportunities, reduces environmental pollution, and protects people’s health. The positive effects of the energy economy’s low-carbon transition are greater than Negatively affected.