China News Agency, Beijing, December 29 (Reporter Pang Wuji) The "Digital Living: Prospects for New Residential 2021" released by the Shell Research Institute on the 29th predicts that China's property market will be generally stable in 2021, and the year-on-year increase in new and second-hand housing prices will narrow to At the same time, the regional market performance continues to diverge, and the growth of housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta is leading the way.
The report pointed out that in 2020, China's real estate market will maintain high resilience under special shocks, and the transaction scale of land, new homes and second-hand housing markets will reach new highs, which will play a positive role in China's macroeconomic recovery.
The report predicts that next year's land market transaction volume will decline, and the price increase is expected to narrow to about 10%.
The overall volume of transactions in the new home market and second-hand housing market is the same as this year, and the price increase has narrowed from 7% to around 5%.
The financial boost to real estate has gradually weakened, and the era of general housing prices is gone forever.
This judgment is similar to the "China Housing Development Report (2020-2021)" recently released by the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The report also predicts that in 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of China's commodity housing prices will drop and remain at around 5%.
In addition, it was originally estimated that there will be an absolute inflection point for housing in 2025, that is, the absolute decline in housing sales may be brought forward.
In terms of subregions, the report released on the same day pointed out that in 2021, driven by factors such as high land market enthusiasm and population influx, housing prices in cities in the Yangtze River Delta will continue to rise moderately, and the growth rate will be high.
The Pearl River Delta market may be affected by the regulation and cooling, but the market fundamentals remain strong.
The market in other non-core cities is more likely to cool down.
Shao Ting, director of the Real Estate Research Office of the Market Economic Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out at the report conference held that day that China’s real estate policy will continue to maintain strong continuity and stability in the next few years.
However, around the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, the housing system and system may usher in a round of drastic changes.
Specifically, relevant policies may include: in terms of land policies, the implementation of the human-land linkage policy, the establishment of a housing and land linkage mechanism, and the reform of the land transfer income distribution mechanism; in terms of financial policies, the strengthening of real estate financial regulation and improvement of key real estate development enterprise fund monitoring and Financing management rules, active development of real estate trust investment funds (REITs); in terms of taxation policies, effective use of taxation adjustment mechanisms, etc.
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