China-Singapore Jingwei Client, December 29 According to the Wall Street Journal Chinese website on the 29th, the yield of long-term US Treasury bonds seems to rise in the first half of 2021, but the Fed may limit the increase in yields.

　　Currently, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is 0.95%, which is higher than the level when it bottomed earlier this year, but close to historical lows.

This reflects that bond market investors are still uncertain about how strong the US economy will be once the epidemic is overcome, and whether rising inflation will continue.

　　The report pointed out that this is also because the Federal Reserve has promised to maintain the target range of the overnight call rate at a level close to zero until it sees signs of a tight labor market and the inflation rate has clearly exceeded the 2% target.

Moreover, the Fed also stated that it will continue to purchase US$80 billion in Treasury bonds and US$40 billion in mortgage bonds every month until employment and inflation have made "substantial further progress."

　　The report also pointed out that with the approach of spring, investors' hesitation on the economy and inflation should be eased.

As more people get vaccinated and the weather picks up, spending on services is especially likely to pick up.

　　According to the report, the inflation rate should also rise, partly because starting from March next year, the year-on-year inflation rate will be compared with when the epidemic first broke out, and the rebound in demand will at least temporarily boost prices.

As this happens, confidence in the Federal Reserve's low interest rate commitments may begin to weaken.

After all, when the United States was still in a crisis, it was one thing for the Fed to say that interest rates should be kept low, and another thing when the crisis subsided.

　　Haitong Securities’ fixed income Jiang Peishan team stated in a research report that according to the US Treasury Department’s previously announced plan for the issuance of marketable government bonds, the planned issuance of US marketable government bonds in the fourth quarter of this year will increase by 75% year-on-year, and the planned issuance in the first quarter of next year will increase by 190 year-on-year. %.

The US Treasury Department also stated that it will further increase the scale of long-term bond issuance in the coming months.

　　The team pointed out that the high deficit rate, the increase in demand to boost the economy, and the weak monetary policy at low interest rates will also exacerbate the supply pressure on US debt.

In the short term, the U.S. economy is still affected by the rebound of the epidemic, the vaccine is difficult to implement in the short term, the economy is slowly recovering, the outlook for superimposed fiscal stimulus policies is unknown, and the U.S. bond market may fluctuate.

　　The research report pointed out that in the medium and long term, the US bond yield curve may become steeper. With the implementation of the congressional election results, the new round of fiscal stimulus policies in the United States may accelerate. In the future, the main risk points of the U.S. bond market will still be the size of fiscal stimulus, the speed of vaccine progress, and the intensity of economic recovery. , The landing of uncertain factors, the fading of the impact of the epidemic, superimposed inflation or exceeding expectations will promote the acceleration of U.S. bond yields. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)