There is no longer a bank deposit interest rate does not rise but falls

How can banks fight the capital market or divert deposits?

  The yield of Yu'ebao fell below 2%, many banks lowered the interest rate of large-denomination certificates of deposit, and the interest-bearing products that depended on the archives were "removed" one after another... After the direct or disguised interest rate cuts of various deposit products this year, the year-end battle for bank deposits was almost " Turn off the fire".

  Near the end of the year, Shell Finance reporters visited and consulted 13 banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, Minsheng, Shanghai Pudong Development, China, China Guangfa, China Everbright, Industrial, Bank of Beijing, Bank of Hangzhou, and found that everything from large deposit certificates to bank wealth management. There is no obvious "tail-lift" in the yield.

  The industry believes that the reasons for the cooling of the "tail-lifting effect" are mainly due to factors such as high-interest-rate savings due to regulations and multiple reductions in lending-end interest rates during the year.

It is expected that my country’s average interest rate level is still on a downward trend. In the future, banks should better coordinate their assets and liabilities and choose the method and scale of deposit increase based on the use of assets.

  It is worth mentioning that the diversion of deposits in the capital market may also accelerate.

Recently, when the China Securities Regulatory Commission laid out its work priorities for next year, it proposed "promoting the conversion of household savings to investment."

According to industry insiders, if this diversion is established, it will pose certain challenges to bank savings, but stable savings deposits are still the “ballast stone” of banks. Banks can make up for the decrease in deposits through the institutional development of diversified financing channels. Speed ​​up transformation and participate in the market.

  High-interest products are hard to find:

  Wealth management yields are not obviously "tail-up", and interest rates for fixed deposits in some banks do not rise but fall

  "Now it’s not like before. If you close your eyes and buy a financial management system, the rate of return is more than 5%. Now you can apply for 3.95% of the large deposit certificate for three years, and it is only for new card customers, which is currently the highest. "A wealth management manager of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank told reporters.

  In the reporter's recent interview, many bank wealth managers said so.

Not only did the large state-owned banks continue their previous "Buddhism", the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized banks to "step on points" to collect reserves has also significantly weakened.

  The ordinary time deposits of the surveyed banks are more than 30% higher than the benchmark interest rate. For example, the one-year time deposit of Minsheng Bank is 2.13%.

Three-year time deposits can reach 3.75%; China Merchants Bank's three-year time deposit interest rate is 3.48%, "there was 3.57% six months ago, but now it has fallen by 0.09%." A wealth manager of the bank said.

And it is worth noting that such time deposit products have a subscription threshold, which is generally above 50,000.

  Similarly, for large deposit certificates with principal and interest, many banks have three-year large certificates of deposit interest rates ranging from 3.85% to 3.95%, but five-year large certificates of deposit have almost disappeared.

  The yield of wealth management products is relatively higher, with maturities ranging from 3 months to 1 year or even longer, and the overall interest rate is around 4%.

For example, a 117-day wealth management product of Bank of Hangzhou has a performance comparison benchmark of 4.15%; a three-month financial management product of Huaxia Bank has a performance comparison benchmark of 3.9%-4%.

  "But financial management is not about guaranteeing capital and not interest. The interest rate told to customers is no longer called the expected rate of return. It is a benchmark for performance. It means the range that the previous products can reach. It does not mean that the final interest rate will be in This range." Interviewed financial managers said.

  Funds and insurance have a higher rate of return than financial management.

According to the recommendations of the interviewed managers, the interest rate of some savings insurance can reach more than 4.4%, but the closed period is longer, which is five years.

An employee of a large state-owned bank recommended a bond fund to reporters, with a historical yield of about 7%.

  "In the past few years, the timing will be rushed, and it was higher at the end of last year, but the overall trend this year is to cut interest rates and the possibility of rushing higher is relatively low." said a wealth management manager of China Construction Bank.

  The main reasons for the weakening of "tail-lifting effect":

  Supervision and regulation of high interest rates to attract savings, and interest rates on loans have been lowered many times during the year

  Data from a third-party monitoring agency also shows that the "tail-lift effect" of banks' reserves has weakened.

  Puyi standard data shows that in the week from December 12 to December 18, 247 banks issued a total of 1,532 bank wealth management products. The number of issuing banks increased by 5 and the number of products issued decreased by 21.

Among them, the average return rate of closed-end expected return RMB products was 3.79%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous period.

  In addition to the removal of the red line for the loan-to-deposit ratio assessment and the transformation of net wealth management in the previous period, the bank’s reserve battle this year has further "extinguished". Tao Jin, a senior researcher at the Suning Institute of Finance, told the Shell Finance reporter that the direct reason was deposits on the Internet. The regulation of products, interest-bearing products on file and other fields has been strengthened, and a considerable number of banks have restricted their active bidding competition.

  "Secondly, in the context of the policy background of banks concession to the real economy and lower lending costs, the overall level of credit interest rates has been lowered. Banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, have raised interest rates to absorb deposits and are under pressure from both the liability side and regulatory guidance. "Tao Jin said.

  The reliant interest-bearing products mentioned by him refer to the interest rate calculated according to the time of the deposit when the time deposit product is withdrawn in advance.

However, many banks, including Gongnong Zhongjian, have successively "removed" such products.

  Taking a closer look, the regulation of high-interest reserves has been increasing.

In December last year, the central bank organized an interest rate self-discipline mechanism and issued an initiative, stipulating that banks should immediately stop new and gradually reduce innovative deposit products with irregular stocks; in March this year, the central bank issued a notice to strengthen deposit interest rate management to rectify fixed deposits in advance Innovative products of non-standard deposits such as interest-based withdrawals.

  Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, also mentioned to the Shell Finance reporter that the deeper reasons are the maturity of the bank’s business philosophy, and the relatively ample liquidity due to the influence of the monetary policy environment this year, and the continued decline in lending interest rates. Therefore, the value of bank deposits, especially the value of time deposits with higher interest rates, is becoming less attractive to banks.

  Zeng Gang said that the vast majority of banks, especially those with a broad and stable source of savings funds, are not facing the problem of pulling deposits, but about the use of funds.

  "The scale and quantity of good assets are limited. Under the circumstance of a decline in the rate of return, if the scale of deposits is expanded regardless of cost, it is actually not conducive to the creation of bank value and may also reduce the bank's revenue." Zeng Gang He said that in the long run, China's average interest rate is still on a downward trend. In the future, banks should better coordinate their assets and liabilities and choose the method and scale of deposits increase according to the use of assets.

  Zeng Gang emphasized that under the general trend of interest rate changes, the increasingly refined business philosophy of banks is an inevitable result.

According to Gai Xinzhe, a senior researcher at Sino-Ocean Capital, the regulation of high-interest reserves by regulatory authorities can prevent excessive competition for reserves from raising the cost of debt and create good conditions for reducing corporate loan financing costs.

  Follow-up 1

  Will the capital market divert deposits accelerate?

  Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission proposed to strengthen the construction of the investment side of the capital market, strengthen the wealth management function, promote the conversion of household savings to investment, and help expand domestic demand.

In this regard, Tao Jin believes that in addition to commercial banks, there are capital markets that currently compete for residents' savings resources.

With the gradual weakening of housing preferences in household asset allocation, housing loans and deposits will also decrease, and residents' funds are increasingly decoupled from banks, and they are moving closer to the wealth management and investment markets. The demand for investment in equity assets is also increasing.

  The diversion of deposits in the stock market has been revealed before.

For example, when the stock market surged in July this year, RMB deposits decreased by 561.7 billion yuan year-on-year in that month, of which household deposits decreased by 719.5 billion yuan.

Zeng Gang said that whenever the capital market is prosperous, a strong savings diversion will inevitably form, but whether this trend can continue and become a long-term phenomenon is closely related to the overall development of the capital market.

He believes that if this diversion is established, it will pose a certain challenge to bank deposits, but it may not cause a very big blow, because banks are also transforming. On the one hand, they can make up for the decrease in deposits through the institutional development of diversified financing channels. ; On the other hand, it can accelerate the transformation to participate in the market, in which bank financial management may play an important role.

  "my country's savings rate is in the process of declining, and it is necessary to use savings resources more effectively to support the development of capital markets, direct financing, and improve financial and financing efficiency. At the same time, it will also increase residents' sources of income in the long-term and increase the rate of residents' income growth. "Tao Jin said.

Gai Xinzhe believes that the background proposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote the conversion of savings to investment is mainly to promote my country's transformation from an indirect financing system to a direct financing system and to develop a multi-level capital market.

  Follow-up 2

  Will it become history or will it intensify the division?

  In Tao Jin’s view, judging from the current regulatory trend, the banking industry’s savings business will continue to differentiate in the future. When prices are regulated, the competition for deposits among banks returns to the original model, and large banks can still rely on more With outlets and multiple channels to obtain more savings resources, small and medium banks may face greater pressure.

  He also said that in the same area, small and medium-sized banks can actively expand customers through offline deposit marketing methods, and increase customer stickiness through other services such as credit, and take a new path different from traditional savings.

  Zeng Gang said that different banks have different needs. In a sense, stable savings deposits are also important ballast stones for banks as indirect financing institutions and stable business development.

Therefore, banks have long-standing demand for deposits, especially core deposits.

  "With the development of the direct financing market and the development of other types of financial instruments, it is an inevitable trend to divert savings." Zeng Gang said, so different types of banks should differentiate their development according to their own endowment characteristics and improve asset and liability management. For efficiency and optimizing the debt structure, qualified banks should seize the opportunity of the development of the direct financing market and look for new business growth opportunities.

  It is worth noting that there are currently more than 4,000 banks in China, and Zeng Gang further emphasized that the internal differences of banks are too great, and it is difficult to describe the entire industry with a unified pattern of changes in savings.

  Beijing News reporter Hu Mengcheng Weimiao