During the New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival, the market situation of my country’s grain and major agricultural products is stable and improving——
"Rice bag" and "vegetable basket" are very rich
Our reporter Zhu Junbi
The total grain output increased by 11.3 billion jin compared with the previous year. The pig stock has increased for five consecutive months. The prices of poultry and eggs are still lower than the same period last year... At present, my country’s grain harvests are harvested year after year, and the total supply and demand are basically balanced. The supply capacity has risen steadily.
Near the New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival, the prices of agricultural products such as beef and mutton showed a steady upward trend, but the market situation of “rice bags” and “vegetable baskets” was stable and positive. The total supply of key varieties was sufficient, and urban and rural residents would not be short of grain or oil in their bowls. Meat dishes.
At the end of the year, the operation of the "rice bag" and "vegetable basket" markets has attracted much attention.
At a press conference held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on December 24, Tang Ke, Director of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated that the current and New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, my country’s grain and major agricultural products markets are stable and positive. Relevant parties will continue to strengthen the price monitoring of grain and other major agricultural products and the tracking analysis of market supply and demand.
"Vegetable basket" prices are stable and fall
"From the perspective of the New Year's Day and Spring Festival situation, the production capacity and supply of the main'vegetable basket' varieties are guaranteed. If a wide range of low-temperature rain and snow disasters do not occur, the possibility of significant price fluctuations is not expected." Tang Ke said that at present, my country's food and main products The total supply of agricultural products is sufficient and the market is basically operating normally.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the "National Wholesale Price Index of'Vegetable Basket' Products" in November was 120.08 (based on 2015 as 100), which was 2.50 points lower than the previous month and 0.37 points higher than the same period last year.
In this regard, Tang Ke said that since the autumn and winter of this year, vegetable production has remained stable, and prices have fallen seasonally. The supply of "vegetable basket" products is generally better than that of the same period last year, and prices have also tended to stabilize with a downward trend.
In terms of varieties, pork prices are expected to stabilize after a slight increase.
In November, the stock of reproductive sows has increased year-on-year for 6 consecutive months, and the stock of live pigs has increased year-on-year for 5 consecutive months. Pork supply is expected to increase significantly during the New Year’s Day and Spring Festival compared to the same period last year. Pork prices may be slightly driven by demand before the Spring Festival The shock rose, and stabilized and fell after the Spring Festival.
The market supply of poultry meat and eggs is guaranteed, and the price will not rise significantly, which is still lower than the level of the same period last year.
The stocks of beef cattle and mutton sheep have increased month-on-month at the end of the third quarter, and the market will continue to increase at the end of the year. However, imports are affected by the epidemic with greater uncertainty. Affected by the peak consumption season of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the price of beef and mutton showed a steady upward trend.
This year, vegetable growers are highly motivated to produce. The overall supply capacity of winter and spring vegetables has risen steadily, and vegetable prices will run on a regular basis.
The overall fruit yield is abundant, the market supply is sufficient, and prices will continue to rise slightly seasonally due to demand.
"Rice bag" production increases seasonally
Is the "rice bag" guaranteed as the traditional consumption peak season for New Year's Day and Spring Festival is about to enter?
In this regard, Tang Ke said that the "rice bag" is unstable, mainly due to insufficient production and supply of the two ration varieties of rice and wheat.
"This year's food production and supply situation is relatively good." said Chen Youquan, the first-level inspector of the Planting Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
The data shows that the annual grain area reached 1.752 billion mu, an increase of 10.56 million mu over the previous year, reversing the downward trend for four consecutive years; the total output reached 1,339 billion catties, an increase of 11.3 billion catties over the previous year, and remained at More than 1300 billion catties.
The three-season grain production increased, and the output of summer grain, early rice, and autumn grain increased by 2.42 billion jin, 2.06 billion jin, and 6.76 billion jin respectively.
"The grain has been harvested year after year, and the total supply and demand is basically balanced." Chen Youquan said that the production and demand of the two major rations of rice and wheat are more than balanced, and the inventory is sufficient. "Although the corn output is flat and slightly reduced, plus all aspects of inventory, supply and demand are basically balanced. "The rations are absolutely safe, and the grains are basically self-sufficient."
From the perspective of grain prices, due to the high yields of rice and wheat for many years and abundant stocks, my country's grain prices have continued to run at low levels in recent years.
Although this year, affected by the epidemic, disasters and capital speculation, the prices of some varieties have resumed their upward trend in stages, but the overall price remains stable.
In terms of varieties, rice prices are “strong indica and japonica but weak”.
With the harvest of autumn grains on the market, the supply of rice grains is sufficient. The prices of indica rice and indica rice in the south are stable and strong, and the prices of japonica rice and japonica rice in the north are relatively weak.
This year, my country's wheat and rice output has increased steadily, and inventories are still at historical highs. It is expected that the overall price of rations in the later period will continue to remain stable.
"With the support of festival consumption and increased production and distribution costs, the overall price of agricultural products is expected to fluctuate seasonally, but the possibility of a sharp rise is unlikely. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of low temperature, rain and snow, and the epidemic on the normal production and marketing of agricultural products. Influence.” Tang Ke said that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will take targeted measures to do a good job in the production and supply of important agricultural products during the holiday season, and effectively guarantee the demand for the "vegetable basket" products of urban and rural residents.
The agricultural product market continues to be stable
From the perspective of the later trend, my country's grain production has achieved another bumper harvest this year, rice and wheat stocks have maintained historical highs, the recovery of pig production capacity is good, and the production of livestock, poultry, fruits and vegetables is stable.
"Next year, the domestic agricultural product market is expected to remain stable." Tang Ke said, "the rice bag and the vegetable basket" have a sufficient supply of key varieties and varieties. Urban and rural residents will not be short of grain or oil or meat. dish."
2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and it is of special significance to seize a bumper grain harvest.
In this regard, Chen Youquan said that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will do a good job in grain production to ensure that the grain planting area is stable at more than 1.75 billion mu.
At the same time, optimize the planting structure, increase the supply of tight agricultural products, focus on increasing the yield per unit, and ensure that the total grain output is maintained at more than 1300 billion jin, so that the Chinese people's rice bowl is firmly in their own hands.
Looking at the international situation, global food prices continued to be weak in the past few years. Due to various influences this year, the overall international food prices fluctuate and rise, and short-term international markets may still experience large fluctuations.
However, my country's imports of the three major staple foods of rice, wheat, and corn from the international market are not large, mainly for varieties and annual balance adjustments. Therefore, the mutual influence between the domestic market and the international market is limited.