my country’s non-fossil energy currently accounts for 15%, and it will increase to 18.8% in 2025——
Energy and chemical industry enters a critical period of low-carbon transition
Our reporter Huang Xiaofang
On December 22, the "five stations and five lines" new energy collection project in Xilin Gol League, Inner Mongolia, was officially put into operation.
The project will send abundant local wind power resources through UHV lines to Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places, contributing to the prevention and control of air pollution and accelerating energy green and low-carbon transformation.
Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Peng Yuan
□ Energy and chemical companies are actively responding to severe challenges, a new round of refining and chemical expansion is booming, and the new industrial structure is accelerating reshaping.
□ The trend of low-carbon energy to replace fossil fuels has gradually become clear, and changes in internal and external factors are forcing oil companies to transition to low-carbon.
□ my country has started the top-level planning of hydrogen energy. It is estimated that more than 8,000 fuel cell commercial vehicles and 100 hydrogen refueling stations will enter demonstration operations by the end of the year.
The global industrial layout is in a period of reform and adjustment. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has triggered changes in the global supply chain and my country's industrial layout.
In this context, what is the status of my country's energy and chemical industry?
What are the new changes in the future?
At the release forum of the "2021 China Energy and Chemical Industry Development Report" held recently, industry insiders gave an in-depth interpretation of this.
Significantly optimized energy structure
Zhang Shaofeng, chief accountant of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, said that the current global energy and chemical industry structure and market order are turbulent, product demand and growth are generally declining, prices have fallen sharply, business conditions have deteriorated, and business performance has continued to decline.
However, Chinese energy and chemical companies have faced difficulties and actively responded to huge impacts and severe challenges.
A new round of refining and chemical expansion is booming, the formation of large-scale refining and chemical bases is accelerating, the refining and chemical industry is showing a diversified development trend, and the new industrial structure is accelerating reshaping.
The report shows that at present, my country's energy structure has been significantly optimized, and the goal of the "13th Five-Year Plan" can basically be achieved.
Yu Jiao, deputy general manager of Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., said that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's total energy consumption can be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal, and non-fossil energy sources account for 15%.
The refining and chemical industry is moving from a big country to a strong one. The refining and chemical production capacity accounts for 18% of the world's total, and the self-sufficiency rate of new materials is close to 70%.
Yu Jiao believes that my country's energy transition has achieved remarkable results. Low-carbon energy has increased by 70%, carbon emission intensity has dropped by 45%, and refined oil quality has also been rapidly upgraded.
The report shows that at present, my country has imported 2.3 billion tons of crude oil, 560 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and 210 million tons equivalent of overseas oil and gas equity production, which has exceeded domestic crude oil production.
Liu Xiaoxiao, director of the Industrial Development Research Institute of Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., predicts that my country's total energy consumption will reach 4.94 billion tons in 2020, and the average annual energy consumption growth rate during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period will support 5.8%. Economic growth.
"This is a very remarkable achievement." Liu Xiaoxiao said that since 2013, the proportion of my country's manufacturing industry surpassed that of the secondary industry for the first time, the decline in energy consumption growth is natural and inevitable.
However, it must be noted that, compared with developed countries, my country's per capita energy consumption is currently at a relatively low level.
Chemical products move towards high-end
It is understood that as the trend of low-carbon energy to replace fossil fuels gradually becomes clear, changes in internal and external factors are forcing oil companies to transition to low-carbon.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's refining and chemical industry will enter a period of full release of new capacity and fierce competition. It is also a period of industry integration, transformation and upgrading. The marketization process of refined oil will be basically completed, and the development of high-end and green chemical products will become a new trend. .
The report predicts that in 2025, my country's primary energy demand will be about 5.4 billion tons of standard coal.
Among them, fossil energy accounted for about 81.2%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, and the share of coal would drop by 5.4 percentage points to 51%. Only natural gas accounted for an increase.
The proportion of non-fossil energy will continue to increase, reaching 18.8%, and energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by about 17% compared to 2020.
Zhang Shaofeng said that from the perspective of the international environment, the impact of the epidemic is far from over, and the instability and uncertainty of the global economic recovery will continue to increase.
The world's oil demand is growing slowly, and the market will start a new cycle of rebalancing. The rebound in oil prices and overcapacity may cause the energy and chemical industry to continue to face difficult times.
"China's energy industry is bound to enter a new period of high-quality, green and low-carbon development." Zhang Shaofeng said that the oil and gas industry will enter a deep-water period of market-oriented reform of the entire industry chain. The upstream resources are supplied by multiple entities and channels, and the midstream unified pipeline network is efficient. An oil and gas market system with fully competitive gathering, transportation and downstream sales will accelerate its formation.
As the demand for oil products reaches its peak, the oil refining industry will accelerate its transformation and upgrading, and accelerate its in-depth adjustment to "reducing oil and increasing oil".
The production capacity of the petrochemical industry continues to rise, the diversified supply pattern is becoming more stable, and industrial mergers and upgrades will accelerate.
The epidemic has a profound impact on the international oil market. In the next five years, international oil prices will show a trend of recovery from low to medium levels.
Both sides of the world's oil supply and demand will enter a new stage of high stocks and low increments. International oil prices will maintain a new normal of high volatility and medium to low levels.
The report predicts that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, due to the development of new energy vehicles, the growth rate of oil demand will slow down significantly and peak gradually; and natural gas, as a low-carbon energy source, will still maintain an average annual consumption growth rate of more than 7%.
Domestic exploration and development investment continues to increase, ensuring a nearly 200 million tons of oil production and a domestic gas growth rate of about 5%.
Good prospects for hydrogen energy industry
The overall strength of the refining and chemical industry continues to improve, and the development focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to accelerate structural adjustment and achieve high-quality development.
At present, my country's oil refining and ethylene capacity ranks second in the world, and PX production capacity ranks first in the world. The number of ten million-ton refineries has increased, forming refining and chemical industry clusters in the Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta.
Ke Xiaoming, deputy chief engineer of Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., said that in the future, the refining and chemical industry will aim at transformation and upgrading and high-quality development.
Accelerate the adjustment of the refining structure, eliminate outdated production capacity with advanced production capacity, and improve the integration of refining and chemical industries. At the same time, it will integrate and develop with the new energy automobile industry and transform gas stations into comprehensive energy supply stations for "oil, gas, electricity and hydrogen".
At the same time, it is necessary to realize differentiated and high-end development of chemical industry.
Optimize the structure of the olefin industry chain, improve the competitiveness of the aromatics industry chain, break through the technical bottleneck of high-end materials; expand the diversified channels of chemical raw materials, and increase the value chain space.
In 2020, my country has started the top-level planning of hydrogen energy. The epidemic has not changed the growth enthusiasm of the hydrogen energy industry. More than 20 large energy central enterprises cross-border hydrogen energy industry. By the end of the year, more than 8,000 fuel cell commercial vehicles and 100 hydrogen refueling stations are expected to enter Demonstration operation.
It is estimated that by 2025, my country's hydrogen fuel vehicles and hydrogen refueling stations will still be mainly used for demonstration operations. By 2035, fuel cell vehicles are expected to reach a million-level commercial application scale.
It is reported that Sinopec, PetroChina, China National Chemical Corporation and other companies have begun to get involved in the hydrogen energy industry. It is believed that through the collaborative innovation of various enterprises, my country's hydrogen energy industry will usher in a bright future.