China News Service, Beijing, December 19 (Liu Liang) The 22nd Peking University Guanghua New Year Forum was held on December 19.

Professor Liu Qiao, Dean of Peking University Guanghua School of Management, attended the forum and delivered a keynote speech.

Liu Qiao analyzed the current five major trends of China's economic development, and said that these five major trends will largely determine the future demand of China's economy, thereby driving the formation and changes of the industrial structure.

Trend 1: Total factor productivity has become the most important driving force for growth

　　Liu Qiao pointed out that in the more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China has maintained a world-leading growth rate. The important reason behind it is that China has maintained a high growth rate of total factor productivity through various methods.

　　Liu Qiao said that since 2010, after China has basically completed its industrialization process, total factor productivity has dropped to a certain extent, approaching about 2%.

"During the period of industrialization, it was relatively easy to increase total factor productivity, but after the end of industrialization, under the background of the service industry and the tertiary industry, it became more difficult to maintain a relatively high total factor productivity growth rate. This is what China is currently facing. Big challenge."

　　What is the most solid source of total factor productivity?

Liu Qiao said that the sources of total factor productivity growth can be explored from the four major advantages.

One is that China has the possibility of "re-industrialization".

; Second, China has the infrastructure needed for “reindustrialization”; third, the continuous development of China's manufacturing industry will also bring room for the growth of total factor productivity; fourth, the deepening of China's reform and opening up will release more dividends.

Trend 2: China moves upstream in the global value chain

　　Liu Qiao believes that China has a high degree of participation in the global value chain, with a very high degree of participation in the import and export of intermediate goods. This shows that China depends on the world and the world depends on China.

This is good news.

But on the other hand, in intermediate products or in the value chain, we are still more dependent on foreign suppliers than in the middle and lower reaches.

　　"China has a high dependence on foreign imports in many key areas. In the future, we need to build a new development pattern. We need to do something in this respect." Liu Qiao said.

Trend 3: The fundamental role of a strong domestic market and consumption

　　Liu Qiao said that China's exports accounted for 36% of GDP in 2006, and it has dropped to 18% in 2019, and will continue to decline in the next 5 to 15 years.

　　"This means that in the future made in China, a larger proportion of China's production may serve the domestic market. How to form a strong domestic market and how to promote the basic role of consumption in China's economic and social development are issues that may need to be considered in the future. From the point of view, the current consumer consumption rate is relatively low." Liu Qiao said.

　　Looking forward to 2035, Liu Qiao believes that with the formation of a strong domestic market and the playing of the fundamental role of consumption in economic and social development, the consumption rate of Chinese residents will increase from the current 39% to close to 60%, of which service consumption will account for total consumption. The proportion of in will increase from the current 44% to 60%.

This means that the economic, social and industrial pattern will undergo profound changes.

Trend 4: Efficient market, optimized allocation of resources, and increased investment yield

　　Liu Qiao pointed out that the biggest focus of establishing an effective market in the future is to form a strong market price determination mechanism, so that prices can guide the effective allocation of resources and improve investment efficiency.

"China itself has a very broad investment space. After so many years of high-speed investment, the current per capita capital stock is still only about 40% of the average of developed countries, and there are many investment opportunities in the future."

　　Liu Qiao said that urbanization itself also contains investment opportunities.

How to play the key role?

Liu Qiao believes that the premise is effective allocation, and investment should be allocated to appropriate regions, cities, industries or new areas.

On the contrary, low investment efficiency will bring about the problem of relatively high macro leverage.

In the future, an efficient market is needed, and a price anchor is needed to allocate resources to places where revenue can be generated.

In this regard, supply-side reforms in the financial sector are of great significance.

Trend 5: Increase the proportion of residents’ income and eliminate the urban-rural dual structure

　　Liu Qiao pointed out that to form a new development pattern dominated by the domestic cycle, it is necessary to improve consumption power and willingness.

There are two problems in income distribution. One is that the income distribution to residents is relatively low; the other is that the degree of unfair distribution is still relatively high.

In the future, we need to think about how to increase the proportion of residents' income distribution in domestic output and reduce the degree of unfair distribution.

And one of the important issues is how to solve the problem of the urbanization of the migrant population from agriculture.

　　According to estimates, China's current urbanization rate is about 60%, and it will reach 75% or even 80% by 2035.

Liu Qiao pointed out that as the urbanization rate increases, nearly 400 million people may seek to live in cities in the future.

Where do they go and where do they live?

Solving these problems requires innovation in business models, innovative thinking models, and specific reforms.

　　Liu Qiao pointed out that in the next 5 to 15 years, we will see the largest urban-rural synergy interaction in history and the re-allocation of a large area of ​​labor. Behind this, the corresponding construction of the financial service system and public service system will become China’s future important economy. The driving force of social development.

The above five trends will largely determine China's future demand situation, thereby driving the formation and changes of the industrial structure.

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