Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, December 21. Since December, in the face of crazy "stones", DCE has successively made moves, continued to strengthen market supervision, and stepped up to improve iron ore futures contract rules.
As of press time, the main iron ore contract fell 0.54%, and fell nearly 3% at one point.
Nearly 50% in the past two months
According to Wind, the main domestic iron ore futures contract began to rise from the bottom of October at around 800 yuan per ton. The price once rushed to 941.5 yuan per ton on December 3, and finally closed at 937 yuan per ton, a record in December 2013. New high since the month.
On December 21, the domestic futures market closed in a large area in the daytime market, and the black series rose collectively. Iron ore was approaching the daily limit, reaching a maximum of 1147 yuan/ton, which was up nearly 50% in the past two months.
In response to this, Dalian Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as DCE) has continuously "shot".
On December 18, DCE stated that starting from the trading hours on December 22, 2020 (that is, during the night trading session on December 21), the iron ore futures trading fee standard has been adjusted to 1/10,000 of the transaction amount.
Among them, the iron ore futures 2101 contract, 2105 contract and 2109 contract's intraday transaction fee standard was adjusted to 4/10000 of the transaction amount.
On December 21, DCE announced that starting from the time of trading on December 22, 2020, non-futures company members or customers shall not open more than 2,000 lots of iron ore futures contracts on a single day.
The single-day open position refers to the sum of the number of open positions for buying and selling on a single iron ore futures contract that is not a member of the futures company or a client on that day.
On the same day, DCE also publicly solicited opinions on the adjustment of the iron ore holding limit, and proposed that the iron ore futures position limit model is to be adjusted to a fixed amount model, with two alternative standards; at the same time, it plans to cancel the iron ore variety delivery month hedging Provisions for automatic conversion of the hedge amount.
Source: Wind
The domestic futures market opened at night on the 21st. The main iron ore contract opened higher and then turned down. It once fell nearly 3%, and now it is down over 0.54%, at RMB 1,102 per ton.
DCE has taken action in early December
As early as early December, DCE had already acted on the crazy trend of iron ore futures prices.
On December 3, DCE issued the "Notice on the Implementation of Trading Limits for Iron Ore Futures I2105 Contracts". From the time of trading on December 7, 2020 (that is, during the night trading session on December 4), non-future companies A member or client shall not open more than 10,000 lots in a single day on the iron ore futures I2105 contract.
On the same day, DCE also issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Maximum Price of Iron Ore Outbound Fees", and from June 15, 2021, the maximum price of outbound fees from designated delivery warehouses for iron ore futures will be adjusted.
Among them, the maximum price limit for the outbound cost of cars and trains is adjusted to 8 yuan/ton, and the maximum limit price for the outbound shipping charges is adjusted to 12 yuan/ton (excluding port construction and port charges).
On December 4, DCE issued a market risk warning letter stating that the price of iron ore in the recent iron ore market has fluctuated significantly. Member units are requested to strengthen investor education and risk prevention work, and remind customers to participate in futures transactions rationally and compliantly.
DCE will continue to strengthen daily supervision, strictly investigate and deal with various violations, and maintain market order.
On the evening of December 6, DCE’s official WeChat official account stated that the “zero tolerance” requirement was implemented. Recently, the exchange has launched a “five-in-one” regulatory coordination mechanism for iron ore and other varieties, in order to exert regulatory force and strictly investigate the market. Trading behaviors, severely crack down on illegal transactions.
On December 9, DCE issued another notice stating that starting from the trading hours on December 14, 2020 (that is, during the night trading session on December 11), non-futures company members or customers will list a single day on the iron ore futures I2105 contract Open positions shall not exceed 5000 lots; starting from the settlement on December 14, 2020 (Monday), the margin level for speculative trading of iron ore futures I2105 contracts will be adjusted to 15%, and the price limit and hedging trading margin levels will remain unchanged. change.
Will it rise in the future?
On December 20, DCE issued a document stating that in the first 11 months of the domestic futures market transactions, positions and capital scales have increased significantly, iron ore futures transactions and positions have declined year-on-year, and undisclosed capital has entered the speculation on a large scale. Happening.
DCE also mentioned that the exchange continues to strengthen market supervision and optimize contract rules, with the purpose of better staying close to and serving the spot market, rather than affecting price changes.
From the perspective of market analysis, changes in fundamental factors are the main reason for the price changes of iron ore this year, and are also deeply affected by the industrial structure of concentrated iron ore sellers and scattered buyers.
Regarding the surging iron ore prices, Guotai Junan Futures believes that iron ore is currently facing both real and expected improvements.
From a realistic perspective, port inventories have recently experienced continuous declines, which eased the pressure from the substantial accumulation of inventories in the third quarter. At the same time, with the expansion of steel mill profits, iron ore spot stocks tend to rise and fall, which has provided support for recent monthly contracts.
Zhongyuan Futures Research reported that on the demand side, although the downstream thread table needs to shrink seasonally, the output of molten iron is still increasing steadily. Under the current profit level, steel mills still have strong production momentum and demand for iron ore in the short term. It can still be maintained at a high level; the iron ore supply side is expected to change, and the supply and demand pattern is relatively strong.
With the continuous surge in iron ore futures prices, the short-term has been out of the logic of supply and demand fundamentals, and the sentiment of funds dominates the market. The overall price level is obviously overestimated, and the turning point has not yet appeared.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)