Egg prices rebounded to near cost
Our reporter Huang Junyi
“The price of eggs has rebounded a bit recently, and layer farmers have now turned from losses to low profits.” On December 16, Zhu Ning, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told a reporter from the Economic Daily.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that since the week before the National Day this year, the average price of eggs in the national wholesale market has fallen for two consecutive months, from 8.51 yuan/kg on September 25 to 7.51 yuan/kg on November 24. The decrease was 11.75%.
Since November 25, the price of eggs has slowly recovered, and on December 15 it rose to 7.97 yuan/kg, a 20-day increase of 6.13%.
Affected by the dual impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and overcapacity, the national egg price continued to fall in the first half of this year, which has been below cost for a long time, and the industry suffered serious losses.
Taking June as an example, the average price of eggs in the national wholesale market for eggs was 6.41 yuan/kg, down 4.04% month-on-month, down 27.90% year-on-year, and down 24.32% year-on-year.
“The price of eggs fell into a trough in the first half of 2016, and the price fell to the lowest point in the past 10 years. After four years, the price of eggs fell into the trough again, only slightly higher than the same period in 2016, the first in the past 10 years. Two low points, overcapacity is the main reason." said Liu Tong, manager of the statistics department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market.
Different from the continued downturn in egg prices, the price of layer feed has continued to rise this year.
Zhu Ning told reporters that the price of corn rose from 2.09 yuan/kg in January to 2.59 yuan/kg in December, an increase of 23.92%.
The price of layer feed rose from 2.89 yuan/kg in January to 3.12 yuan/kg in December, an increase of 7.96%.
It is understood that the cost of 7.2 yuan to 7.3 yuan is required to produce 1 kg of eggs.
Recently, as the price of eggs has rebounded, layer farmers have been able to maintain their capital or make small profits.
Why has the price of eggs continued to rise recently?
Zhu Ning believes that there are three main reasons:
One is the relative compression of supply.
In March, the national stock of laying hens reached 1.36 billion, significantly higher than the average level of the past three years.
Subsequently, due to continued losses and the liberalization of live chicken trading, the farms actively reduced production capacity and accelerated the elimination of laying hens.
Since April, the country has reduced an average of about 12 million laying hens per month, and the number of laying hens in November has dropped by 1.4%.
According to current trends, the stock of laying hens in December will continue to shrink by about 1%.
Second, feed prices continue to rise.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in the first week of December, corn and layer feed prices rose 0.4% and 0.3% month-on-month, and rose 23.3% and 7.6% year-on-year.
Third, New Year's Day and Spring Festival are approaching, and the demand for egg processing and centralized catering has increased.
Regarding the future trend of egg prices, Zhu Ning believes that the demand for eggs will fall in the later period: the food factories have completed the stocking, and the demand for egg processing will decline; the school winter vacation, the group consumption demand for eggs will decline; consumers will increase meat consumption before the Spring Festival, and the demand for eggs The chain ratio will also decrease.
From the perspective of supply, although the stock of laying hens continues to decline from the previous month, the total stock is still at an upper level in history, and the market supply is still sufficient.
Therefore, the national egg price rise is expected to continue until late December, but it is difficult to continue until the Spring Festival.
After New Year's Day, egg prices may show a volatile adjustment trend.