Recently, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and other places issued a notice of "Orderly Use of Electricity"——
Structural contradiction in electricity consumption cannot be ignored
Our reporter Wang Yichen
The rapid growth of industrial production and the superposition of low temperature and cold current have led to higher-than-expected rapid growth in power demand, which is the main reason for the announcement of "orderly use of electricity" in many places.
On the whole, there is currently no “switching power limit” caused by large-scale power shortages in my country, and “orderly use of power” is a regular measure to deal with short-term special power peaks.
However, the structural contradictions in the use of electricity reflected in this round of "orderly use of electricity" cannot be ignored.
Recently, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and other places have successively issued notices of "Orderly Use of Electricity", which have a certain impact on the production and living electricity consumption of some enterprises and residents, and it has even been interpreted as a recurrence of the "switching power cut" that has not been seen for many years. .
Why did the "power cut" come about?
How to ensure the safety of power supply?
Power demand growth exceeds expectations
On December 14, news from the official website of the Development and Reform Commission of Changsha City, Hunan Province showed that the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission required that the province start power rationing measures from December 8.
The "Emergency Notice on Starting the Orderly Power Consumption of the Province During the Peak Winter in 2020" issued by the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission shows that the maximum load of Hunan Province has reached 30.93 million kilowatts, exceeding the winter historical record. The maximum daily power consumption is 606 million kilowatts. At that time, it increased by 14.1% year-on-year, and there was a large gap in power supply.
In order to ensure the smooth operation of the power grid and reliable power supply, priority will be given to guaranteeing the power consumption of residents, key public facilities and key enterprises, and appropriately restricting the power consumption of administrative units and landscapes.
On the same day, affected by the cold wave, the Jiangxi Power Grid coordinated the power load and dispatched power generation and reception to a record high.
The Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission decided that starting from December 15th, the interruptible load will be implemented in the morning and evening peak hours, and orderly power usage will be started.
In recent days, Zhejiang Province has also successively introduced "power curtailment" measures.
The Zhejiang Provincial Administration Bureau issued a notice a few days ago that from now until December 31, the office areas of relevant provincial units can only turn on air-conditioning and other heating equipment when the temperature reaches below 3 degrees Celsius, and the set temperature should not exceed 16 degrees Celsius.
In the early stage of the development of my country's power industry, the power supply was insufficient and the power supply was not smooth. "Pull the switch and limit the power" has become a special historical memory of a generation.
In recent years, with the leap-forward development of the power industry, my country has sufficient power reserves, and there was even an overcapacity of coal power.
Why did the new round of "power cuts" start?
The primary reason for this round of "cutting the brakes" is the sudden drop in temperature and the advent of peak heating power consumption, causing a sudden increase in electricity consumption.
Wu Donglin, a spokesperson for Changsha Power Supply Company, analyzed that the whole province of Hunan entered winter one month earlier than previous years, and the power supply situation is relatively severe due to the reduction of coal burning, the decline of reservoir water levels, the inability of wind power to generate electricity effectively due to freezing, and the reduction of external power.
It is worth noting that the main reason for Zhejiang Province's "power curtailment" measures is not power shortage, but energy conservation and emission reduction.
A person in charge of the State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company told reporters that the current overall balance of power supply and demand in Zhejiang Province, there is no such thing as “cutting the brakes” and “orderly use of electricity” is mainly due to the “dual control” and “dual control of energy” in Zhejiang Province. The severe situation and the requirements of green development facing the work of reducing coal.
In fact, the China Electricity Council has previously predicted that in the fourth quarter, power supply and demand in some provinces in Central China and southern regions will be tight, mainly due to the tight power supply during peak hours in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi, which may require orderly use of electricity. Measures.
According to predictions by relevant departments, a wide range of extreme low temperature weather is likely to occur this winter, which will drive a substantial increase in the demand for power supply and heating; at the same time, the second wave of foreign epidemics has led to an increase in foreign trade demand in some industries in my country, which will further boost my country’s manufacturing production and increase consumption. Power demand, so the power industry needs to do a good job in advance to ensure the power supply during the peak winter.
In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission responded on the 17th that the high-speed growth of industrial production and the superposition of low temperature and cold current have led to higher-than-expected rapid growth in power demand.
So far, the power supply has remained stable and orderly, and the electricity consumption of residents has not been affected.
The National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with relevant departments and enterprises, has taken measures to effectively guarantee power demand and ensure that power supply is generally stable and orderly.
Demand response must be flexible
On the whole, there is currently no “switching power limit” caused by large-scale power shortages in my country, and “orderly use of power” is a regular measure to deal with short-term special power peaks.
However, the structural contradictions in the use of electricity reflected in this round of "orderly use of electricity" cannot be ignored.
The implementation of an orderly power plan is not unique to this winter.
Affected by the continuous strong temperature drop, rain and snow, Hunan and Jiangxi have issued notices for orderly electricity consumption in January 2018.
According to industry insiders, special weather will bring extremely high and unstable power load, and provinces with a single power source are prone to short-term power shortages. Taking into account the state of excess thermal power installed capacity and economic efficiency in my country, this type of unsustainable load It is not worth building too many generator sets.
In the future, for areas where the contradiction between power supply and demand is prominent, consideration can be given to increasing the stability of external power transmission.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, my country's electricity demand grew rapidly and the installed power capacity continued to expand. However, the power structural contradiction of "coal power surplus and peak power shortage" has not been effectively resolved. The phenomenon of "shortage of electricity" has affected the safety of my country's electricity supply.
Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, said that the key to solving the peak load gap is not to continue to expand the scale of coal power installations, but to optimize the power supply structure from the overall perspective of the power system, and solve the power gap at the root.
"Although the reasons for power curtailment in several provinces are not the same, they all reflect that some power departments have yet to improve the forecasting level of the peak-valley difference in power consumption." Zeng Ming, professor of North China Electric Power University and director of the Energy Internet Research Center, believes that in this regard It is because of insufficient consideration of some structural factors that affect electricity demand; on the other hand, because my country has vigorously promoted the reform of electricity market in recent years, the progress of each province is different.
"In the process of power market reform, it is necessary to fully consider matching the real power demand and the correlation between various power sources. Otherwise, the contradiction between supply and demand will recur."
In this regard, Zeng Ming suggested that because the current lack of power is mainly concentrated on peak power consumption, in future policy formulation and technology research and development, full consideration should be given to the flexibility of power demand side response.
In the long run, as my country puts forward the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, renewable energy with greater volatility will be developed on a larger scale. It has particularity in meeting electricity demand and will give the grid a safer place. Smooth operation brings certain pressure.
Zeng Ming said that power must be developed in accordance with the requirements of the integrated energy system to ensure that renewable energy and traditional energy are organically combined.
Our reporter Wang Yichen