Russia solves the problems associated with the coronavirus pandemic better than many of the world's leading states.
This was announced on Thursday, December 17, by President Vladimir Putin at an annual press conference.
“It is safe to say that we have met these problems with dignity and, in part, even, perhaps, better than in other countries of the world, which are rightfully proud of both the stability of their economies and the development of their social services and health systems,” the Russian leader noted ...
According to him, due to the consequences of COVID-19, the Russian economy contracted by 3.6%.
This is less than in the United States and the European Union, where in a number of countries the GDP decline reached almost 9%, Putin stressed.
According to the president, in November 2020, the manufacturing industry in Russia grew by 1.1% compared to the same period in 2019.
The growth of agricultural production is currently 1.8%, and by the end of the current year it may accelerate to 2%.
“Our banking sector is in a very satisfactory condition, the profit of banks is estimated this year at about 1.3 trillion rubles.
This speaks of the stability of the financial system, ”added Vladimir Putin.
As the president said, it was possible to curb the economic downturn in Russia and support the industries most affected by the pandemic through financial assistance to businesses and the population.
We are talking about providing credit vacations, grants and soft loans to enterprises, tax deferrals and exemptions for companies and entrepreneurs, as well as direct payments to families with children.
“In general, 4.6 trillion rubles were allocated to support citizens and industry, to fight the pandemic.
For us, this is unprecedented money, it is 4.5% of the country's GDP, "Putin said.
The Russian leader said that in total, the authorities allocated 838 billion rubles for direct assistance to the population.
At the same time, during a press conference, the head of state announced a new payment for the New Year to all families with children under seven years old - 5 thousand rubles for each child.
© REUTERS / Maxim Shemetov
As Nikita Maslennikov, head of the Finance and Economics department at the Institute of Contemporary Development, noted in a conversation with RT, without government support, the rate of decline in Russia's GDP could reach 5-5.5%.
In addition, the depth of the recession was allowed to limit the structural features of the Russian economy, the expert is sure.
“In connection with the coronavirus, those economies that are focused on domestic consumption with a predominance of the service sector are in the most difficult situation.
The reasons are clear - social distancing has hit businesses that require direct customer contact.
Therefore, the GDP sank much more in countries with a high share of the service sector - these are the USA, Japan and the EU, ”Maslennikov explained.
Social solution
During his conversation with journalists, Vladimir Putin drew attention to a number of social problems that have arisen in connection with the pandemic.
So, according to him, in 2020 real incomes of Russians will decrease by 3%, while real wages will grow by only 1.5%.
In addition, the President spoke about a noticeable rise in unemployment.
As a result of the consequences of the coronavirus, the corresponding figure increased from 4.7% to 6.3%.
However, the restoration of the labor market may occur as early as 2021, the head of state believes.
“Everything we do to support the economy, to support the affected industries, is directly related to maintaining jobs.
Now (unemployment. -
RT
) 6.3%, I hope that within the next year we will be able to reach the previous rates, "Putin said.
According to him, the growth of poverty has also become one of the key challenges for the Russian economy.
According to the head of state, from 2000 to 2017, the country managed to reduce the share of poor citizens from 29 to 12.3%, but in 2020 the value increased to 13.5%.
Meanwhile, the country's authorities intend to achieve a halving of the indicator over the next nine years, the president said.
“The plan is as follows: by 2030, leave from today's 13.5% to 6.5% of people whose income level is below the subsistence level.
It is bad, of course, that 6.5% will remain too, but we must proceed from reality.
This is real, I think it is an ambitious goal, but real, ”Putin stressed.
© RIA Novosti / Kirill Kallinikov
Note that at the end of September, the Russian government approved a national plan for economic recovery.
The project contains about 500 activities, and the cost of its implementation may be about 5 trillion rubles.
As part of the initiative, the authorities plan to reach the unemployment rate below 5% and ensure the growth of real incomes of citizens by 2.5% annually.
“The decline in the number of the poor in the country and the increase in the income of citizens are two interrelated factors.
It is obvious that the comprehensive work of the government to preserve employment, reduce unemployment and increase the average wage level in the country are the main tools for fighting poverty, "Artyom Tuzov, executive director of the capital market department at Univer Capital, told RT.
"Elements of development"
During the press conference, Vladimir Putin also outlined the factors necessary for "good macroeconomic development."
In particular, the president noted the excess of Russian exports over imports, as well as the growth in the volume of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) to 13.5 trillion rubles.
In addition, the head of state spoke about a noticeable increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves (up to $ 587.7 billion) and a low national debt.
“We have a national debt - it was already minimal, $ 70 billion, if in dollar terms.
It decreased by $ 10 billion. We borrow less in foreign markets, but we regularly service all our loan obligations, ”Putin said.
According to the estimates of the American Institute of International Finance (IIF), in the third quarter of 2020, the level of Russian public debt amounted to 18% of GDP.
At the moment, the indicator remains one of the lowest in the world.
For example, in the US the corresponding value exceeds 127% of GDP, in the eurozone - 115%, in Japan - 257%, in the UK - 130%, and in China - 63%.
“Typically, low-debt countries have a much smaller drop in GDP during a recession.
Moreover, the low level of debt and large reserves make it easier to get out of crises, "Oleg Shibanov, director of the Skolkovo-NES financial center, said in a conversation with RT.
One of the key "elements of development" Vladimir Putin also called the reduction of the dependence of the Russian economy on hydrocarbons.
According to the president, to date, almost 70% of the federal budget is formed not at the expense of oil and gas revenues.
“This means that we are not fully, but nevertheless, we are starting to get off the so-called oil and gas needle.
And if someone still wants to represent us as a gas station, then this no longer has a real basis.
Although the dependence is still very large, and we must keep this in mind, ”Putin stressed.
According to Oleg Shibanov, due to possible fluctuations in raw material prices, a reduction in the share of oil and gas revenues in the treasury will make it easier to plan the country's budget.
At the same time, according to Artyom Tuzov, it is possible to compensate for the shortfall in revenues from the sale of oil and gas by increasing the export of products of the agricultural sector, the defense and chemical industries, as well as manufacturing industries.
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Recovery phase
According to Vladimir Putin, further economic recovery will depend on the pace of vaccinations, the timing of the end of the pandemic and the lifting of a number of remaining restrictions.
The President expects that the situation with COVID-19 will change for the better within six months.
“As for the economy, then, according to different estimates, according to different estimates, sometime at the end of 2021 - in the first quarter of 2022, we will overcome all these problems.
Moreover, next year we expect to reach positive trends in the country's GDP.
Everyone needs to work actively, ”the president stressed.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2021 Russia's GDP may grow by 3.3%, and in 2022 - by 3.4%.
A similar assessment is held by the Central Bank.
By the end of 2021, the Central Bank expects economic growth by 3-4%, and in 2022 - by 2.5-3.5%.
“In general, the economy in terms of the main macroeconomic indicators will demonstrate stable upward trajectories during 2021.
At the same time, it will be possible to reach pre-crisis levels in terms of GDP, industrial production and other criteria at the beginning of 2022, ”said Nikita Maslennikov.