If there is consensus on the rebound in growth, the government is forecasting 400,000 job creations next year while the OFCE and the Banque de France do not anticipate any net job creation.

Nicolas Barré takes stock of a current economic issue.

After the terrible year that 2020 will have been, growth will rebound next year.

But what about employment?

The question divides and angers.

We must hope that economists are wrong because the weather forecast that they are telling us for the job market next year is very gray and that is what angers the government.

Rarely have we seen such a gap between official forecasts, which are rather optimistic, and those of economists who are much less so.

Our economy will have destroyed around 800,000 jobs this year, which is considerable.

But if we are to believe the government's forecasts, it should recreate 400,000 next year.

This is the rebound scenario.

It is based on a rebound in growth of 5% next year, after a historic stall of 9% this year.

But if there is consensus on this rebound in growth, this is not the case for employment.

The OFCE, a renowned economic institute, does not anticipate any net job creation next year.

The Banque de France is roughly on the same line, with only 45,000 more net jobs in 2021. In short, we are therefore very far from what the government is saying.

So why ?

Well, because the economy has suffered such a shock, so unprecedented, that we do not know how to measure the consequences.

Because beyond the ups and downs of the economy, there may be more profound changes that will have a lasting impact - or not - on the job market.

For example ?

One of the big unknowns is productivity.

What makes economists predict few job creations next year is that they anticipate a sharp increase in productivity: there would therefore be a need for fewer people for the same work.

This would be the case in particular in industry, where we know how to reorganize very quickly to increase productivity and restore a correct margin level.

It is also possible that after a year marked by two lockdowns and an explosion in teleworking, companies have accelerated their digital transition and thus increased the productivity of their employees to the detriment of employment.

The other reason for this large gap in the forecasts is the use of partial activity.

Either it remains important, and a lot of jobs will be saved.

Either a large number of companies give it up and switch to massive workforce reduction plans.

Hopefully economists who anticipate this scenario are wrong ...